Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 5–7 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 29.7% | 27.5–31.9% | 26.9–32.6% | 26.4–33.1% | 25.4–34.2% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.7% | 26.6–30.9% | 26.0–31.6% | 25.5–32.1% | 24.5–33.2% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.3–9.1% | 4.8–9.8% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.2–7.7% | 3.8–8.3% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 4.0–7.3% | 3.6–8.0% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.9–5.9% | 2.6–6.5% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.8–5.7% | 2.5–6.3% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.3–4.9% | 2.0–5.5% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.6–3.9% | 1.3–4.4% |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.2–4.3% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.4–3.6% | 1.1–4.1% |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% | 0.6–3.0% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.7–2.4% | 0.5–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 88% | 97% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 28% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): Delo
- Fieldwork period: 5–7 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 718
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.20%