Opinion Poll by Valicon for Siol, 8–12 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 23.9–26.9% | 23.4–27.3% | 23.1–27.7% | 22.4–28.4% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.6–26.6% | 23.2–27.0% | 22.8–27.4% | 22.1–28.1% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.9–8.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.1–9.8% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.7–8.5% | 6.5–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 5.9–9.6% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.5% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.2–7.5% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.1–5.6% | 3.9–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.5–6.5% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.4–6.3% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.1–4.6% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.8–4.1% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 41% | 41% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 17% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 43% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mi, socialisti! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi, socialisti! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Glas upokojencev (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas upokojencev (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Valicon
- Commissioner(s): Siol
- Fieldwork period: 8–12 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1379
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.13%