Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP, 18–21 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) 0.0% 29.1% 26.7–31.5% 26.1–32.3% 25.5–32.9% 24.4–34.1%
Gibanje Svoboda (RE) 0.0% 26.5% 24.2–28.9% 23.6–29.6% 23.1–30.2% 22.0–31.4%
Socialni demokrati (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 6.8–9.7% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.5–11.4%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.6% 4.6–7.1% 4.3–7.5% 4.0–7.8% 3.6–8.6%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3% 3.2–6.6% 2.8–7.3%
Levica (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.1% 3.0–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5% 2.6–5.8% 2.3–6.5%
Resni.ca (NI) 0.0% 3.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.6% 2.1–6.3%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.2–5.2% 1.9–5.9%
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.6% 1.5–5.2%
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.0% 1.2–4.5%
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.3% 1.2–3.6% 0.9–4.1%
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) 0 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5
Gibanje Svoboda (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Socialni demokrati (S&D) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Levica (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Resni.ca (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 88% 96% Median
5 8% 8% Majority
6 0% 0%  

Gibanje Svoboda (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 28% 100%  
4 72% 72% Median
5 0.1% 0.1% Majority
6 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Levica (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Resni.ca (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialni demokrati (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1
Levica (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1
Resni.ca (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Socialni demokrati (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Levica (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Resni.ca (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations