Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP, 20–23 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda (RE) 0.0% 26.1% 23.8–28.5% 23.2–29.1% 22.7–29.7% 21.7–30.9%
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) 0.0% 22.2% 20.1–24.5% 19.5–25.1% 19.0–25.7% 18.1–26.8%
Socialni demokrati (S&D) 0.0% 7.7% 6.5–9.3% 6.1–9.8% 5.8–10.2% 5.3–11.0%
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.2–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
Slovenska demokratska stranka (NI) 0.0% 6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.7–8.7% 4.2–9.4%
Levica (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.9% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.8–8.8%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.2–6.6% 3.9–7.0% 3.7–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Resni.ca (NI) 0.0% 3.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.4% 2.6–5.7% 2.2–6.4%
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.1–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.5–4.1% 1.3–4.7%
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.5–4.1% 1.3–4.7%
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.5–4.1% 1.3–4.7%
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.5–4.1% 1.3–4.7%
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Gibanje Svoboda (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Socialni demokrati (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenska demokratska stranka (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Levica (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Resni.ca (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gibanje Svoboda (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 85% 99.9% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Majority
6 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 60% 97% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0% 0% Majority

Socialni demokrati (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 34% 34%  
2 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0% 0%  

Levica (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Resni.ca (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Levica (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Slovenska demokratska stranka (NI) – Resni.ca (NI) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Socialni demokrati (S&D) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Levica (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Slovenska demokratska stranka (NI) – Resni.ca (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Socialni demokrati (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations