Opinion Poll by Survation, 7 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 40.4% 38.5–42.4% 37.9–43.0% 37.4–43.5% 36.5–44.5%
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.4% 36.5–40.4% 35.9–41.0% 35.5–41.5% 34.6–42.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 294 262–320 253–327 244–333 235–344
Conservative Party 317 269 250–303 245–312 240–319 231–329
Liberal Democrats 12 27 21–29 19–30 17–31 15–35
Scottish National Party 35 39 11–50 7–52 3–52 1–54
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–8 3–8 3–8 2–10

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.2% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.2% 99.3%  
238 0.4% 99.2%  
239 0.2% 98.8%  
240 0.2% 98.6%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0.3% 98%  
244 0.4% 98%  
245 0.1% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.3% 97%  
248 0.2% 96%  
249 0.4% 96%  
250 0.2% 96%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 0.2% 96%  
253 0.6% 95%  
254 0.5% 95%  
255 1.0% 94%  
256 0.2% 93%  
257 0.8% 93%  
258 0.2% 92%  
259 0.7% 92%  
260 0.4% 91%  
261 0.3% 91%  
262 1.3% 91% Last Result
263 0.3% 89%  
264 0.7% 89%  
265 2% 88%  
266 0.3% 87%  
267 0.4% 86%  
268 0.6% 86%  
269 0.5% 85%  
270 0.6% 85%  
271 0.8% 84%  
272 2% 83%  
273 0.8% 81%  
274 0.5% 80%  
275 0.8% 80%  
276 1.0% 79%  
277 1.0% 78%  
278 2% 77%  
279 2% 75%  
280 0.4% 73%  
281 1.1% 73%  
282 1.2% 72%  
283 2% 71%  
284 1.0% 69%  
285 2% 68%  
286 0.7% 66%  
287 1.3% 65%  
288 2% 64%  
289 0.8% 62%  
290 3% 61%  
291 3% 59%  
292 2% 56%  
293 3% 54%  
294 3% 51% Median
295 2% 49%  
296 0.7% 46%  
297 3% 46%  
298 0.6% 43%  
299 2% 42%  
300 1.0% 40%  
301 3% 39%  
302 2% 36%  
303 3% 34%  
304 2% 31%  
305 2% 29%  
306 2% 27%  
307 1.1% 25%  
308 4% 24%  
309 1.0% 20%  
310 1.3% 19%  
311 0.6% 18%  
312 0.3% 17%  
313 0.8% 17%  
314 0.7% 16%  
315 1.0% 16%  
316 0.4% 15%  
317 1.1% 14%  
318 1.3% 13%  
319 0.8% 12%  
320 1.5% 11%  
321 2% 10%  
322 0.5% 8%  
323 0.6% 7%  
324 0.6% 7%  
325 0.5% 6%  
326 0.2% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 5%  
328 0.4% 5%  
329 0.5% 4%  
330 0.4% 4%  
331 0.5% 4%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.4%  
337 0.2% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 1.0%  
339 0.1% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.7%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.5%  
233 0.2% 99.4%  
234 0.2% 99.2%  
235 0.3% 99.1%  
236 0.3% 98.8%  
237 0.3% 98.5%  
238 0.2% 98%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.5% 97%  
242 0.3% 97%  
243 0.7% 96%  
244 0.4% 96%  
245 0.4% 95%  
246 1.0% 95%  
247 0.9% 94%  
248 1.2% 93%  
249 1.4% 92%  
250 2% 90%  
251 1.4% 89%  
252 0.6% 87%  
253 2% 87%  
254 1.2% 85%  
255 3% 84%  
256 1.3% 81%  
257 2% 79%  
258 2% 77%  
259 1.1% 75%  
260 3% 74%  
261 2% 71%  
262 1.4% 69%  
263 3% 68%  
264 0.7% 64%  
265 6% 64%  
266 3% 58%  
267 2% 55%  
268 2% 53%  
269 3% 51% Median
270 0.5% 49%  
271 1.4% 48%  
272 1.3% 47%  
273 0.9% 45%  
274 2% 44%  
275 4% 42%  
276 4% 38%  
277 2% 34%  
278 1.2% 32%  
279 1.4% 31%  
280 1.1% 29%  
281 0.6% 28%  
282 0.7% 27%  
283 0.4% 27%  
284 0.3% 26%  
285 0.3% 26%  
286 0.6% 26%  
287 0.7% 25%  
288 0.8% 24%  
289 0.7% 24%  
290 4% 23%  
291 1.0% 19%  
292 1.1% 18%  
293 2% 17%  
294 0.6% 15%  
295 0.8% 15%  
296 0.3% 14%  
297 0.2% 14%  
298 0.1% 13%  
299 0.5% 13%  
300 0.8% 13%  
301 0.4% 12%  
302 0.5% 12%  
303 1.3% 11%  
304 0.5% 10%  
305 1.1% 9%  
306 0.5% 8%  
307 0.8% 8%  
308 0.5% 7%  
309 0.4% 6%  
310 0.6% 6%  
311 0.3% 5%  
312 0.2% 5%  
313 0.3% 5%  
314 0.2% 5%  
315 0.2% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.6% 4% Last Result
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.3%  
326 0.1% 1.1% Majority
327 0.2% 1.0%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.5% 99.7%  
16 0.8% 99.3%  
17 1.0% 98%  
18 1.1% 97%  
19 3% 96%  
20 3% 94%  
21 3% 90%  
22 2% 87%  
23 4% 85%  
24 9% 81%  
25 7% 72%  
26 11% 65%  
27 28% 55% Median
28 13% 26%  
29 6% 13%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.1% 4%  
32 0.7% 2%  
33 0.6% 2%  
34 0.3% 1.0%  
35 0.3% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0.8% 99.6%  
2 0.7% 98.7%  
3 0.7% 98%  
4 0.8% 97%  
5 0.6% 97%  
6 0.9% 96%  
7 2% 95%  
8 1.0% 93%  
9 2% 92%  
10 0.2% 91%  
11 0.8% 90%  
12 0.9% 90%  
13 1.3% 89%  
14 0.9% 88%  
15 0.6% 87%  
16 1.1% 86%  
17 0.4% 85%  
18 0.4% 85%  
19 0.7% 84%  
20 0.9% 83%  
21 0.4% 83%  
22 2% 82%  
23 1.2% 80%  
24 2% 79%  
25 1.0% 77%  
26 5% 76%  
27 0.6% 71%  
28 4% 70%  
29 5% 66%  
30 0.9% 61%  
31 0.1% 61%  
32 2% 60%  
33 2% 59%  
34 0.4% 57%  
35 2% 57% Last Result
36 0.5% 55%  
37 0.7% 54%  
38 3% 54%  
39 2% 50% Median
40 3% 48%  
41 1.2% 45%  
42 2% 44%  
43 3% 42%  
44 6% 39%  
45 1.2% 33%  
46 5% 32%  
47 4% 27%  
48 3% 23%  
49 3% 20%  
50 7% 17%  
51 5% 10%  
52 3% 5%  
53 0.6% 2%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 1.5% 99.7%  
3 10% 98%  
4 7% 89% Last Result
5 64% 81% Median
6 5% 17%  
7 1.3% 12%  
8 10% 11%  
9 0.7% 1.3%  
10 0.4% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 362 92% 328–381 319–386 312–391 302–400
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 357 88% 323–376 313–381 307–387 296–395
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 337 71% 304–355 294–359 288–365 277–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 326 50% 290–352 282–358 274–364 265–376
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 311 27% 284–346 278–355 271–362 259–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 320 40% 285–347 276–353 269–360 259–372
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 331 58% 299–350 288–354 283–359 272–367
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 305 22% 279–341 273–349 267–357 255–366
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 294 12% 276–327 272–337 266–343 259–354
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 299 10% 267–325 259–332 250–338 241–348
Labour Party 262 294 6% 262–320 253–327 244–333 235–344
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 274 2% 255–308 250–318 244–324 236–335
Conservative Party 317 269 1.1% 250–303 245–312 240–319 231–329

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.2% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.3%  
304 0.2% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 99.0%  
306 0.2% 98.9%  
307 0.2% 98.7%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.5% 97% Last Result
314 0.6% 97%  
315 0.3% 96%  
316 0.2% 96%  
317 0.2% 96%  
318 0.3% 95%  
319 0.2% 95%  
320 0.3% 95%  
321 0.6% 95%  
322 0.4% 94%  
323 0.5% 94%  
324 0.8% 93%  
325 0.5% 92%  
326 1.1% 92% Majority
327 0.5% 91%  
328 1.3% 90%  
329 0.5% 89%  
330 0.4% 88%  
331 0.8% 88%  
332 0.5% 87%  
333 0.1% 87%  
334 0.2% 87%  
335 0.3% 86%  
336 0.8% 86%  
337 0.6% 85%  
338 2% 85%  
339 1.1% 83%  
340 1.0% 82%  
341 4% 81%  
342 0.7% 77%  
343 0.8% 76%  
344 0.7% 76%  
345 0.6% 75%  
346 0.3% 74%  
347 0.3% 74%  
348 0.4% 74%  
349 0.7% 73%  
350 0.6% 73%  
351 1.1% 72%  
352 1.4% 71%  
353 1.2% 69%  
354 2% 68%  
355 4% 66%  
356 4% 62%  
357 2% 58%  
358 0.9% 56%  
359 1.3% 55%  
360 1.4% 53%  
361 0.5% 52%  
362 3% 51%  
363 2% 49%  
364 2% 47%  
365 3% 45% Median
366 6% 42%  
367 0.7% 36%  
368 3% 36%  
369 1.4% 32%  
370 2% 31%  
371 3% 29%  
372 1.1% 26%  
373 2% 25%  
374 2% 23%  
375 1.3% 21%  
376 3% 19%  
377 1.2% 16%  
378 2% 15%  
379 0.6% 13%  
380 1.4% 13%  
381 2% 11%  
382 1.4% 10%  
383 1.2% 8%  
384 0.9% 7%  
385 1.0% 6%  
386 0.4% 5%  
387 0.4% 5%  
388 0.7% 4%  
389 0.3% 4%  
390 0.5% 3%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.3% 1.5%  
396 0.3% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.8%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0.2% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 98.9%  
301 0.2% 98.8%  
302 0.2% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 0.6% 97%  
309 0.5% 97% Last Result
310 0.4% 96%  
311 0.2% 96%  
312 0.4% 96%  
313 0.3% 95%  
314 0.3% 95%  
315 0.2% 95%  
316 0.7% 94%  
317 0.6% 94%  
318 0.6% 93%  
319 0.3% 92%  
320 0.8% 92%  
321 0.6% 91%  
322 0.6% 91%  
323 1.2% 90%  
324 0.7% 89%  
325 0.5% 88%  
326 0.4% 88% Majority
327 0.6% 87%  
328 0.3% 87%  
329 0.8% 87%  
330 0.6% 86%  
331 0.8% 85%  
332 0.5% 84%  
333 1.4% 84%  
334 0.7% 82%  
335 0.6% 82%  
336 4% 81%  
337 0.7% 77%  
338 0.7% 77%  
339 0.7% 76%  
340 0.8% 75%  
341 0.5% 74%  
342 0.4% 74%  
343 1.0% 73%  
344 0.9% 72%  
345 1.1% 72%  
346 1.0% 71%  
347 1.1% 69%  
348 1.0% 68%  
349 2% 67%  
350 2% 65%  
351 3% 63%  
352 2% 59%  
353 2% 57%  
354 2% 55%  
355 1.4% 53%  
356 0.7% 52%  
357 3% 51%  
358 2% 48%  
359 2% 46%  
360 2% 44% Median
361 5% 42%  
362 2% 37%  
363 3% 36%  
364 2% 32%  
365 2% 30%  
366 2% 29%  
367 2% 27%  
368 2% 24%  
369 2% 23%  
370 2% 21%  
371 3% 19%  
372 1.1% 16%  
373 2% 15%  
374 0.7% 13%  
375 1.4% 12%  
376 1.1% 11%  
377 2% 10%  
378 1.2% 8%  
379 1.0% 7%  
380 0.7% 6%  
381 0.6% 5%  
382 0.4% 5%  
383 0.6% 4%  
384 0.4% 4%  
385 0.6% 3%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.5% 3%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.5%  
391 0.2% 1.2%  
392 0.2% 1.0%  
393 0.1% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.2% 0.6%  
396 0% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.0%  
281 0.2% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 98.7%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0.1% 98.5%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.6% 98%  
289 1.1% 97%  
290 0.3% 96%  
291 0.4% 96%  
292 0.4% 96%  
293 0.1% 95%  
294 0.2% 95%  
295 0.4% 95%  
296 0.1% 95%  
297 0.2% 94%  
298 0.3% 94%  
299 0.6% 94%  
300 0.6% 93%  
301 1.1% 93% Last Result
302 0.3% 92%  
303 1.1% 91%  
304 0.8% 90%  
305 1.4% 90%  
306 1.2% 88%  
307 0.3% 87%  
308 0.1% 87%  
309 0.2% 87%  
310 0.3% 86%  
311 1.1% 86%  
312 0.7% 85%  
313 0.7% 84%  
314 3% 84%  
315 0.6% 81%  
316 0.9% 80%  
317 2% 79%  
318 1.1% 78%  
319 0.4% 77%  
320 1.3% 76%  
321 1.0% 75%  
322 0.3% 74%  
323 0.4% 74%  
324 0.7% 73%  
325 2% 73%  
326 0.7% 71% Majority
327 2% 70%  
328 4% 68%  
329 4% 64%  
330 2% 60%  
331 1.1% 58%  
332 0.7% 57%  
333 0.8% 56%  
334 1.2% 55%  
335 2% 54%  
336 0.7% 52%  
337 5% 51%  
338 3% 46% Median
339 6% 43%  
340 0.6% 37%  
341 3% 36%  
342 2% 33%  
343 2% 32%  
344 1.4% 30%  
345 1.1% 28%  
346 1.3% 27%  
347 4% 26%  
348 2% 22%  
349 4% 21%  
350 2% 17%  
351 2% 15%  
352 0.2% 13%  
353 1.3% 13%  
354 1.1% 11%  
355 1.0% 10%  
356 1.2% 9%  
357 1.0% 8%  
358 1.1% 7%  
359 0.9% 6%  
360 0.5% 5%  
361 1.0% 4%  
362 0.3% 3%  
363 0.6% 3%  
364 0% 3%  
365 0.2% 3%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0.3% 1.5%  
369 0.4% 1.1%  
370 0.1% 0.7%  
371 0.1% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.5%  
267 0.2% 99.3%  
268 0.5% 99.1%  
269 0.2% 98.7%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.2% 97%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0.2% 97% Last Result
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.1% 96%  
281 0.6% 96%  
282 0.8% 95%  
283 0.5% 95%  
284 0.8% 94%  
285 0.5% 93%  
286 0.8% 93%  
287 0.1% 92%  
288 0.3% 92%  
289 0.4% 92%  
290 1.2% 91%  
291 0.2% 90%  
292 0.2% 90%  
293 1.1% 89%  
294 0.9% 88%  
295 0.7% 88%  
296 0.4% 87%  
297 1.0% 86%  
298 0.6% 85%  
299 0.7% 85%  
300 1.3% 84%  
301 0.7% 83%  
302 1.1% 82%  
303 0.9% 81%  
304 0.6% 80%  
305 1.5% 80%  
306 0.3% 78%  
307 0.9% 78%  
308 1.0% 77%  
309 0.4% 76%  
310 1.2% 75%  
311 2% 74%  
312 1.0% 73%  
313 2% 72%  
314 0.3% 70%  
315 2% 70%  
316 2% 68%  
317 1.5% 66%  
318 0.6% 65%  
319 0.5% 64%  
320 2% 64%  
321 2% 62%  
322 3% 60%  
323 3% 57%  
324 2% 54%  
325 2% 52%  
326 2% 50% Median, Majority
327 3% 48%  
328 0.7% 46%  
329 3% 45%  
330 2% 42%  
331 2% 40%  
332 2% 39%  
333 2% 36%  
334 3% 34%  
335 1.0% 31%  
336 1.4% 30%  
337 1.0% 29%  
338 3% 28%  
339 1.2% 24%  
340 3% 23%  
341 0.5% 20%  
342 0.5% 19%  
343 2% 18%  
344 0.8% 17%  
345 1.1% 16%  
346 0.7% 15%  
347 0.4% 14%  
348 1.2% 14%  
349 0.4% 13%  
350 1.0% 12%  
351 1.3% 11%  
352 0.4% 10%  
353 2% 10%  
354 0.7% 8%  
355 0.5% 7%  
356 0.9% 7%  
357 0.6% 6%  
358 0.7% 5%  
359 0.4% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.3% 4%  
362 0.2% 3%  
363 0.3% 3%  
364 0.5% 3%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0.1% 1.3%  
369 0.1% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 1.0%  
371 0% 0.8%  
372 0.1% 0.8%  
373 0.1% 0.8%  
374 0% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.2% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0% 99.5%  
261 0.1% 99.4%  
262 0% 99.4%  
263 0.1% 99.3%  
264 0.1% 99.2%  
265 0% 99.2%  
266 0.2% 99.2%  
267 0.2% 99.0%  
268 0.2% 98.8%  
269 0.5% 98.6%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.4% 97%  
273 0.2% 97%  
274 0.3% 97%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.7% 96%  
277 0.3% 96%  
278 0.8% 95%  
279 0.6% 94%  
280 0.9% 94%  
281 0.5% 93%  
282 0.6% 92%  
283 2% 92%  
284 0.6% 90%  
285 1.3% 90%  
286 0.9% 88%  
287 0.2% 88%  
288 1.4% 87%  
289 0.6% 86%  
290 0.7% 85%  
291 0.6% 85%  
292 1.5% 84%  
293 1.1% 83%  
294 0.4% 81%  
295 0.7% 81%  
296 3% 80%  
297 1.4% 77%  
298 3% 76%  
299 1.2% 73%  
300 2% 72%  
301 1.5% 70%  
302 2% 69%  
303 3% 66%  
304 2% 63%  
305 1.3% 61%  
306 2% 60%  
307 3% 58%  
308 0.8% 55%  
309 2% 54%  
310 2% 52%  
311 2% 50%  
312 2% 48%  
313 3% 46% Median
314 4% 43%  
315 1.0% 40%  
316 1.4% 39%  
317 1.0% 37%  
318 2% 36%  
319 1.3% 35%  
320 0.5% 33%  
321 2% 33%  
322 0.7% 31%  
323 2% 30%  
324 0.5% 29%  
325 1.4% 28%  
326 2% 27% Majority
327 0.9% 25%  
328 0.9% 24%  
329 0.8% 23%  
330 0.4% 23%  
331 2% 22%  
332 0.7% 21%  
333 1.0% 20%  
334 0.9% 19%  
335 0.8% 18%  
336 1.3% 17%  
337 0.7% 16%  
338 0.6% 15%  
339 1.3% 15%  
340 0.9% 14%  
341 0.7% 13%  
342 0.3% 12%  
343 0.9% 12%  
344 0.2% 11%  
345 0.4% 11%  
346 1.1% 10%  
347 0.3% 9%  
348 0.2% 9%  
349 0.5% 8%  
350 0.5% 8%  
351 0.9% 7%  
352 0.4% 7%  
353 0.5% 6%  
354 0.5% 6%  
355 0.8% 5%  
356 0.2% 4% Last Result
357 0.5% 4%  
358 0.3% 4%  
359 0.1% 3%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 0.1% 3%  
362 0.3% 3%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.4% 1.4%  
369 0.1% 1.0%  
370 0.1% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.1% 99.4%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0.1% 99.1%  
263 0.4% 99.0%  
264 0.2% 98.6%  
265 0% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.3% 98%  
268 0.4% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.1% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.1% 97%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 0.5% 96% Last Result
275 0.2% 96%  
276 0.8% 96%  
277 0.5% 95%  
278 0.5% 94%  
279 0.4% 94%  
280 0.9% 93%  
281 0.5% 93%  
282 0.5% 92%  
283 0.2% 92%  
284 0.3% 91%  
285 1.1% 91%  
286 0.4% 90%  
287 0.2% 89%  
288 0.9% 89%  
289 0.3% 88%  
290 0.7% 88%  
291 0.9% 87%  
292 1.3% 86%  
293 0.6% 85%  
294 0.7% 85%  
295 1.3% 84%  
296 0.8% 83%  
297 0.9% 82%  
298 1.0% 81%  
299 0.7% 80%  
300 2% 79%  
301 0.4% 78%  
302 0.8% 77%  
303 0.9% 77%  
304 0.9% 76%  
305 2% 75%  
306 1.4% 73%  
307 0.5% 72%  
308 2% 71%  
309 0.7% 70%  
310 2% 69%  
311 0.5% 67%  
312 1.3% 67%  
313 2% 65%  
314 1.0% 64%  
315 1.4% 63%  
316 1.0% 61%  
317 4% 60%  
318 3% 57%  
319 2% 54%  
320 2% 52%  
321 2% 50% Median
322 2% 48%  
323 0.8% 46%  
324 3% 45%  
325 2% 42%  
326 1.3% 40% Majority
327 2% 39%  
328 3% 37%  
329 2% 34%  
330 1.5% 31%  
331 2% 30%  
332 1.2% 28%  
333 3% 27%  
334 1.4% 24%  
335 3% 23%  
336 0.7% 20%  
337 0.4% 19%  
338 1.1% 19%  
339 1.5% 17%  
340 0.6% 16%  
341 0.7% 15%  
342 0.6% 15%  
343 1.4% 14%  
344 0.2% 13%  
345 0.9% 12%  
346 1.3% 12%  
347 0.6% 10%  
348 2% 10%  
349 0.6% 8%  
350 0.5% 8%  
351 0.9% 7%  
352 0.6% 6%  
353 0.8% 6%  
354 0.3% 5%  
355 0.7% 4%  
356 0.3% 4%  
357 0.3% 3%  
358 0.2% 3%  
359 0.4% 3%  
360 0.5% 3%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.4%  
364 0.2% 1.2%  
365 0.2% 1.0%  
366 0% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.8%  
369 0% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.6%  
371 0% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0.2% 99.2%  
275 0.1% 98.9%  
276 0.2% 98.9%  
277 0.1% 98.7%  
278 0.1% 98.6%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.9% 97%  
285 0.5% 96%  
286 0.4% 96%  
287 0.4% 95%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 0.2% 95%  
290 0.3% 95%  
291 0.4% 94%  
292 0.2% 94%  
293 0.4% 94%  
294 0.6% 94%  
295 0.4% 93%  
296 0.8% 92%  
297 0.6% 92% Last Result
298 0.7% 91%  
299 0.9% 90%  
300 1.5% 90%  
301 0.5% 88%  
302 0.7% 88%  
303 0.9% 87%  
304 0.5% 86%  
305 0.4% 86%  
306 0.8% 85%  
307 0.5% 84%  
308 0.3% 84%  
309 3% 83%  
310 0.6% 81%  
311 1.0% 80%  
312 1.1% 79%  
313 1.2% 78%  
314 0.4% 77%  
315 1.1% 76%  
316 2% 75%  
317 1.1% 74%  
318 0.7% 73%  
319 1.3% 72%  
320 0.9% 71%  
321 0.7% 70%  
322 2% 69%  
323 2% 67%  
324 4% 65%  
325 4% 61%  
326 1.3% 58% Majority
327 0.8% 57%  
328 0.9% 56%  
329 2% 55%  
330 2% 53%  
331 1.3% 51%  
332 4% 50%  
333 2% 46% Median
334 7% 44%  
335 1.2% 37%  
336 3% 36%  
337 1.0% 33%  
338 2% 32%  
339 2% 30%  
340 2% 28%  
341 0.8% 26%  
342 2% 25%  
343 3% 23%  
344 4% 20%  
345 2% 17%  
346 2% 15%  
347 0.8% 13%  
348 1.4% 12%  
349 0.7% 11%  
350 0.9% 10%  
351 1.0% 9%  
352 1.3% 8%  
353 1.0% 7%  
354 0.9% 6%  
355 0.6% 5%  
356 0.5% 4%  
357 0.6% 4%  
358 0.7% 3%  
359 0.1% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.4% 1.2%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0% 99.4%  
258 0.1% 99.3%  
259 0.1% 99.2%  
260 0% 99.2%  
261 0.2% 99.2%  
262 0.1% 99.0%  
263 0.1% 98.8%  
264 0.5% 98.7%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 0.2% 97%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.6% 96%  
272 0.4% 96%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0.6% 95%  
275 0.9% 94%  
276 0.5% 93%  
277 0.7% 93%  
278 2% 92%  
279 0.4% 90%  
280 1.3% 90%  
281 1.0% 89%  
282 0.4% 88%  
283 1.2% 87%  
284 0.4% 86%  
285 0.7% 86%  
286 1.1% 85%  
287 0.8% 84%  
288 2% 83%  
289 0.5% 82%  
290 0.5% 81%  
291 3% 80%  
292 1.2% 77%  
293 3% 76%  
294 1.0% 72%  
295 1.4% 71%  
296 1.0% 70%  
297 3% 69%  
298 2% 66%  
299 2% 64%  
300 2% 61%  
301 2% 60%  
302 3% 58%  
303 0.7% 55%  
304 3% 54%  
305 2% 52%  
306 2% 50%  
307 2% 48%  
308 3% 46% Median
309 3% 43%  
310 2% 40%  
311 2% 38%  
312 0.5% 36%  
313 0.6% 36%  
314 1.5% 35%  
315 2% 34%  
316 2% 32%  
317 0.3% 30%  
318 2% 30%  
319 1.0% 28%  
320 2% 27%  
321 1.2% 26%  
322 0.4% 25%  
323 1.0% 24%  
324 0.9% 23%  
325 0.3% 22%  
326 1.5% 22% Majority
327 0.6% 20%  
328 0.9% 20%  
329 1.1% 19%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 1.3% 17%  
332 0.7% 16%  
333 0.6% 15%  
334 1.0% 15%  
335 0.4% 14%  
336 0.7% 13%  
337 0.9% 12%  
338 1.1% 12%  
339 0.2% 11%  
340 0.2% 10%  
341 1.2% 10%  
342 0.4% 9%  
343 0.3% 8%  
344 0.1% 8%  
345 0.8% 8%  
346 0.5% 7%  
347 0.8% 7%  
348 0.5% 6%  
349 0.8% 5%  
350 0.6% 5%  
351 0.1% 4%  
352 0.5% 4% Last Result
353 0.2% 3%  
354 0.1% 3%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.2% 3%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0% 2%  
361 0.1% 2%  
362 0.2% 2%  
363 0.5% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.1% 99.5%  
261 0.1% 99.4%  
262 0.4% 99.3%  
263 0.3% 98.9%  
264 0.4% 98.5%  
265 0.5% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0% 97%  
268 0.6% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 1.0% 97%  
271 0.5% 96%  
272 0.9% 95%  
273 1.1% 94%  
274 1.0% 93%  
275 1.2% 92%  
276 1.0% 91%  
277 1.1% 90%  
278 1.3% 89%  
279 0.2% 87%  
280 2% 87%  
281 2% 85%  
282 4% 83%  
283 2% 79%  
284 4% 78%  
285 1.3% 74%  
286 1.1% 73%  
287 1.4% 72%  
288 2% 70%  
289 2% 68%  
290 3% 67%  
291 0.6% 64%  
292 6% 63%  
293 3% 57%  
294 5% 54%  
295 0.7% 49%  
296 2% 48% Median
297 1.2% 46%  
298 0.8% 45%  
299 0.7% 44%  
300 1.1% 43%  
301 2% 42%  
302 4% 40%  
303 4% 36%  
304 2% 32%  
305 0.7% 30%  
306 2% 29%  
307 0.7% 27%  
308 0.4% 27%  
309 0.3% 26%  
310 1.0% 26%  
311 1.3% 25%  
312 0.4% 24%  
313 1.1% 23%  
314 2% 22%  
315 0.9% 21%  
316 0.6% 20%  
317 3% 19%  
318 0.7% 16%  
319 0.7% 16%  
320 1.1% 15%  
321 0.3% 14%  
322 0.2% 14%  
323 0.1% 13%  
324 0.3% 13%  
325 1.2% 13%  
326 1.4% 12% Majority
327 0.8% 10%  
328 1.1% 10%  
329 0.3% 9% Last Result
330 1.1% 8%  
331 0.6% 7%  
332 0.6% 7%  
333 0.3% 6%  
334 0.2% 6%  
335 0.1% 6%  
336 0.4% 5%  
337 0.2% 5%  
338 0.1% 5%  
339 0.4% 5%  
340 0.4% 4%  
341 0.3% 4%  
342 1.1% 4%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.1% 1.5%  
349 0.1% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.3%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.3% 1.0%  
353 0.2% 0.7%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.5% 99.3%  
244 0.2% 98.8%  
245 0.1% 98.6%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 0.2% 98%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 0.1% 97%  
253 0.3% 97%  
254 0.5% 97%  
255 0.3% 96%  
256 0% 96%  
257 0.1% 96%  
258 0.3% 96%  
259 0.8% 95%  
260 0.9% 94%  
261 0.5% 93%  
262 0.8% 93%  
263 0.3% 92%  
264 0.4% 92%  
265 0.3% 92%  
266 0.4% 91% Last Result
267 1.3% 91%  
268 0.9% 90%  
269 0.6% 89%  
270 1.4% 88%  
271 0% 87%  
272 0.4% 87%  
273 0.6% 86%  
274 0.4% 86%  
275 1.2% 85%  
276 1.0% 84%  
277 2% 83%  
278 0.5% 81%  
279 0.5% 81%  
280 1.0% 80%  
281 2% 79%  
282 0.4% 78%  
283 1.2% 77%  
284 2% 76%  
285 0.9% 75%  
286 1.4% 74%  
287 1.4% 72%  
288 2% 71%  
289 0.6% 69%  
290 2% 68%  
291 0.9% 66%  
292 1.1% 65%  
293 2% 64%  
294 0.7% 62%  
295 2% 61%  
296 3% 59%  
297 2% 56%  
298 2% 54%  
299 3% 52% Median
300 3% 49%  
301 0.4% 47%  
302 3% 46%  
303 0.7% 43%  
304 2% 42%  
305 2% 40%  
306 2% 38%  
307 2% 36%  
308 2% 34%  
309 2% 32%  
310 2% 29%  
311 3% 28%  
312 2% 25%  
313 3% 23%  
314 1.3% 21%  
315 1.1% 19%  
316 0.6% 18%  
317 0.4% 18%  
318 0.9% 17%  
319 1.1% 16%  
320 0.4% 15%  
321 1.3% 15%  
322 1.0% 14%  
323 0.7% 13%  
324 0.6% 12%  
325 1.5% 11%  
326 2% 10% Majority
327 0.6% 8%  
328 0.2% 7%  
329 0.8% 7%  
330 0.6% 6%  
331 0.3% 6%  
332 0.5% 5%  
333 0.4% 5%  
334 0.7% 4%  
335 0.3% 4%  
336 0.4% 3%  
337 0.4% 3%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 1.2%  
343 0% 1.0%  
344 0.1% 1.0%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.5%  
349 0% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.2% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.2% 99.3%  
238 0.4% 99.2%  
239 0.2% 98.8%  
240 0.2% 98.6%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0.3% 98%  
244 0.4% 98%  
245 0.1% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.3% 97%  
248 0.2% 96%  
249 0.4% 96%  
250 0.2% 96%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 0.2% 96%  
253 0.6% 95%  
254 0.5% 95%  
255 1.0% 94%  
256 0.2% 93%  
257 0.8% 93%  
258 0.2% 92%  
259 0.7% 92%  
260 0.4% 91%  
261 0.3% 91%  
262 1.3% 91% Last Result
263 0.3% 89%  
264 0.7% 89%  
265 2% 88%  
266 0.3% 87%  
267 0.4% 86%  
268 0.6% 86%  
269 0.5% 85%  
270 0.6% 85%  
271 0.8% 84%  
272 2% 83%  
273 0.8% 81%  
274 0.5% 80%  
275 0.8% 80%  
276 1.0% 79%  
277 1.0% 78%  
278 2% 77%  
279 2% 75%  
280 0.4% 73%  
281 1.1% 73%  
282 1.2% 72%  
283 2% 71%  
284 1.0% 69%  
285 2% 68%  
286 0.7% 66%  
287 1.3% 65%  
288 2% 64%  
289 0.8% 62%  
290 3% 61%  
291 3% 59%  
292 2% 56%  
293 3% 54%  
294 3% 51% Median
295 2% 49%  
296 0.7% 46%  
297 3% 46%  
298 0.6% 43%  
299 2% 42%  
300 1.0% 40%  
301 3% 39%  
302 2% 36%  
303 3% 34%  
304 2% 31%  
305 2% 29%  
306 2% 27%  
307 1.1% 25%  
308 4% 24%  
309 1.0% 20%  
310 1.3% 19%  
311 0.6% 18%  
312 0.3% 17%  
313 0.8% 17%  
314 0.7% 16%  
315 1.0% 16%  
316 0.4% 15%  
317 1.1% 14%  
318 1.3% 13%  
319 0.8% 12%  
320 1.5% 11%  
321 2% 10%  
322 0.5% 8%  
323 0.6% 7%  
324 0.6% 7%  
325 0.5% 6%  
326 0.2% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 5%  
328 0.4% 5%  
329 0.5% 4%  
330 0.4% 4%  
331 0.5% 4%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.4%  
337 0.2% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 1.0%  
339 0.1% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.6%  
236 0.2% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.1% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.0%  
241 0.3% 98.8%  
242 0.2% 98.5%  
243 0.3% 98%  
244 0.5% 98%  
245 0.3% 97%  
246 0.6% 97%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 0.6% 96%  
249 0.4% 96%  
250 0.6% 95%  
251 0.7% 95%  
252 1.0% 94%  
253 1.2% 93%  
254 2% 92%  
255 1.1% 90%  
256 1.4% 89%  
257 0.7% 88%  
258 2% 87%  
259 1.1% 85%  
260 3% 84%  
261 2% 81%  
262 2% 79%  
263 2% 77%  
264 2% 76%  
265 2% 73%  
266 2% 71%  
267 2% 70%  
268 3% 68%  
269 2% 64%  
270 5% 63%  
271 2% 58%  
272 2% 56%  
273 2% 54%  
274 3% 52% Median
275 0.7% 49%  
276 1.4% 48%  
277 2% 47%  
278 2% 45%  
279 2% 43%  
280 3% 41%  
281 2% 37%  
282 2% 35%  
283 1.0% 33%  
284 1.1% 32%  
285 1.0% 31%  
286 1.1% 29%  
287 0.9% 28%  
288 1.0% 28%  
289 0.4% 27%  
290 0.5% 26%  
291 0.8% 26%  
292 0.7% 25%  
293 0.7% 24%  
294 0.7% 23%  
295 4% 23%  
296 0.6% 19%  
297 0.7% 18%  
298 1.4% 18%  
299 0.5% 16%  
300 0.8% 16%  
301 0.6% 15%  
302 0.8% 14%  
303 0.3% 13%  
304 0.6% 13%  
305 0.4% 13%  
306 0.5% 12%  
307 0.7% 12%  
308 1.2% 11%  
309 0.6% 10%  
310 0.6% 9%  
311 0.8% 9%  
312 0.3% 8%  
313 0.6% 8%  
314 0.6% 7%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 0.2% 6%  
317 0.3% 5%  
318 0.3% 5%  
319 0.4% 5%  
320 0.2% 4%  
321 0.4% 4% Last Result
322 0.5% 4%  
323 0.6% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.2% 1.4%  
331 0.1% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.7%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.5%  
233 0.2% 99.4%  
234 0.2% 99.2%  
235 0.3% 99.1%  
236 0.3% 98.8%  
237 0.3% 98.5%  
238 0.2% 98%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.5% 97%  
242 0.3% 97%  
243 0.7% 96%  
244 0.4% 96%  
245 0.4% 95%  
246 1.0% 95%  
247 0.9% 94%  
248 1.2% 93%  
249 1.4% 92%  
250 2% 90%  
251 1.4% 89%  
252 0.6% 87%  
253 2% 87%  
254 1.2% 85%  
255 3% 84%  
256 1.3% 81%  
257 2% 79%  
258 2% 77%  
259 1.1% 75%  
260 3% 74%  
261 2% 71%  
262 1.4% 69%  
263 3% 68%  
264 0.7% 64%  
265 6% 64%  
266 3% 58%  
267 2% 55%  
268 2% 53%  
269 3% 51% Median
270 0.5% 49%  
271 1.4% 48%  
272 1.3% 47%  
273 0.9% 45%  
274 2% 44%  
275 4% 42%  
276 4% 38%  
277 2% 34%  
278 1.2% 32%  
279 1.4% 31%  
280 1.1% 29%  
281 0.6% 28%  
282 0.7% 27%  
283 0.4% 27%  
284 0.3% 26%  
285 0.3% 26%  
286 0.6% 26%  
287 0.7% 25%  
288 0.8% 24%  
289 0.7% 24%  
290 4% 23%  
291 1.0% 19%  
292 1.1% 18%  
293 2% 17%  
294 0.6% 15%  
295 0.8% 15%  
296 0.3% 14%  
297 0.2% 14%  
298 0.1% 13%  
299 0.5% 13%  
300 0.8% 13%  
301 0.4% 12%  
302 0.5% 12%  
303 1.3% 11%  
304 0.5% 10%  
305 1.1% 9%  
306 0.5% 8%  
307 0.8% 8%  
308 0.5% 7%  
309 0.4% 6%  
310 0.6% 6%  
311 0.3% 5%  
312 0.2% 5%  
313 0.3% 5%  
314 0.2% 5%  
315 0.2% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.6% 4% Last Result
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.3%  
326 0.1% 1.1% Majority
327 0.2% 1.0%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations