Liberal Democrats

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 7.6% (General Election of 8 June 2017)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12.0% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.1% 8.7–14.6% 8.1–15.4%
10–11 December 2019 Survation 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
10–11 December 2019 Panelbase 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–11.9% 10.0–12.1% 9.6–12.5%
10–11 December 2019 Opinium 12.1% 11.3–12.9% 11.1–13.1% 11.0–13.3% 10.6–13.7%
9–11 December 2019 Kantar Public 13.0% 12.2–13.8% 12.0–14.1% 11.8–14.3% 11.4–14.7%
9–11 December 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
12.0% 11.2–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.9%
9–11 December 2019 Deltapoll 9.8% 9.0–10.8% 8.8–11.1% 8.6–11.3% 8.2–11.8%
6–11 December 2019 BMG Research 14.0% 12.9–15.1% 12.6–15.5% 12.4–15.7% 11.9–16.3%
8–10 December 2019 Number Cruncher Politics
Bloomberg
12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
9–10 December 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
6–9 December 2019 ICM Research 12.1% 11.2–13.1% 10.9–13.4% 10.7–13.6% 10.3–14.1%
5–8 December 2019 Qriously 12.1% 11.2–13.0% 11.0–13.3% 10.8–13.5% 10.4–14.0%
6–8 December 2019 ComRes
Remain United
11.9% 11.3–12.4% 11.2–12.6% 11.1–12.7% 10.8–13.0%
5–7 December 2019 Survation
Good Morning Britain
10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.6%
5–7 December 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.2–13.3%
5–6 December 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2%
4–6 December 2019 Panelbase 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
4–6 December 2019 Opinium
The Observer
13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
4–6 December 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.5% 12.4–15.8% 11.9–16.4%
4–5 December 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Telegraph
12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
2–4 December 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
13.0% 12.0–14.2% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
2–3 December 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
11.8% 10.9–12.9% 10.6–13.2% 10.4–13.5% 9.9–14.0%
2–3 December 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0%
28 November–2 December 2019 Kantar Public 14.9% 13.6–16.3% 13.2–16.8% 12.9–17.1% 12.3–17.8%
29 November–2 December 2019 ICM Research 13.1% 12.2–14.1% 11.9–14.4% 11.7–14.7% 11.3–15.2%
26–30 November 2019 Survation
Good Morning Britain
11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.7–13.7%
28–30 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
15.1% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
28–29 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2%
27–29 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
12.8% 11.9–13.8% 11.7–14.1% 11.4–14.4% 11.0–14.9%
27–28 November 2019 Panelbase 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
27–28 November 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Telegraph
13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
26–27 November 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
13.0% 12.0–14.2% 11.8–14.5% 11.5–14.8% 11.0–15.3%
25–26 November 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
13.1% 12.1–14.2% 11.8–14.5% 11.6–14.8% 11.1–15.4%
25–26 November 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
13.1% 12.2–14.1% 11.9–14.4% 11.7–14.7% 11.3–15.2%
21–25 November 2019 Kantar Public 13.9% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.1% 11.4–16.8%
22–25 November 2019 ICM Research 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.1–15.0%
20–23 November 2019 Survation
Good Morning Britain
14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.0–16.7% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.8%
21–23 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
16.1% 14.9–17.3% 14.6–17.7% 14.3–18.0% 13.8–18.6%
21–22 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.4%
20–22 November 2019 Panelbase 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
20–22 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0%
20–21 November 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Express
15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.2%
19–21 November 2019 BMG Research 18.3% 17.2–19.6% 16.8–20.0% 16.6–20.3% 16.0–20.9%
12–20 November 2019 YouGov 14.9% 14.4–15.3% 14.3–15.4% 14.2–15.5% 14.0–15.7%
18–19 November 2019 YouGov
The Times
14.9% 13.9–16.1% 13.5–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
15–19 November 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
16.0% 14.6–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 13.9–18.2% 13.3–18.9%
18–19 November 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
14–18 November 2019 Kantar Public 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
15–18 November 2019 ICM Research 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
14–16 November 2019 Survation 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.2–15.4% 10.6–16.1%
10–16 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
14–15 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
14.8% 13.7–16.0% 13.4–16.3% 13.2–16.6% 12.7–17.2%
13–15 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
13.9% 13.0–15.0% 12.7–15.3% 12.5–15.5% 12.0–16.0%
9–15 November 2019 BMG Research 16.0% 14.9–17.3% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
13–14 November 2019 Panelbase 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.4–18.2%
13–14 November 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Telegraph
14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
11–12 November 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.4–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
11–12 November 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
15.7% 14.7–16.8% 14.4–17.1% 14.2–17.4% 13.7–17.9%
7–11 November 2019 Kantar Public 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.0%
8–11 November 2019 ICM Research 14.8% 13.8–15.9% 13.5–16.1% 13.3–16.4% 12.9–16.9%
8–10 November 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
6–9 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
16.1% 15.0–17.4% 14.6–17.8% 14.4–18.1% 13.8–18.7%
7–8 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times and Sky News
16.9% 15.8–18.2% 15.5–18.5% 15.2–18.8% 14.7–19.4%
6–8 November 2019 Survation 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
6–8 November 2019 Panelbase 14.9% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.8% 12.9–17.2% 12.3–18.0%
6–8 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15.0% 14.1–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.2%
5–8 November 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
15.8% 14.7–17.1% 14.3–17.5% 14.1–17.8% 13.5–18.4%
5–6 November 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
16.9% 15.8–18.2% 15.5–18.5% 15.2–18.8% 14.7–19.4%
30 October–5 November 2019 ComRes
Remain United
16.7% 16.1–17.3% 15.9–17.5% 15.8–17.7% 15.5–18.0%
1–4 November 2019 YouGov
The Times
15.9% 15.1–16.8% 14.9–17.0% 14.7–17.2% 14.3–17.6%
1–4 November 2019 ICM Research
Reuters
14.8% 13.8–15.9% 13.5–16.2% 13.3–16.4% 12.9–16.9%
31 October–2 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
13.9% 12.8–15.2% 12.5–15.5% 12.3–15.8% 11.8–16.4%
30 October–1 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
15.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.4% 14.3–17.7% 13.8–18.2%
30 October–1 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15.8% 14.8–16.9% 14.5–17.2% 14.2–17.4% 13.8–18.0%
30–31 October 2019 Panelbase 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
30–31 October 2019 ORB
The Telegraph
14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
30–31 October 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
17.1% 15.9–18.3% 15.6–18.7% 15.3–19.0% 14.7–19.6%
29–30 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
18.1% 17.0–19.3% 16.6–19.7% 16.4–20.0% 15.8–20.6%
29–30 October 2019 Survation 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
17–28 October 2019 YouGov 18.7% 18.3–19.2% 18.1–19.3% 18.0–19.4% 17.8–19.7%
25–28 October 2019 Ipsos MORI 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
24–25 October 2019 YouGov 17.9% 16.7–19.1% 16.4–19.5% 16.1–19.8% 15.6–20.4%
23–25 October 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15.1% 14.1–16.2% 13.8–16.5% 13.6–16.7% 13.1–17.3%
20–21 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
18.7% 17.5–20.0% 17.2–20.3% 16.9–20.7% 16.4–21.3%
18–21 October 2019 Deltapoll 18.9% 17.8–20.1% 17.5–20.4% 17.2–20.7% 16.7–21.2%
17–18 October 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.1%
17–18 October 2019 Panelbase 17.2% 15.7–18.8% 15.3–19.2% 15.0–19.6% 14.3–20.4%
15–17 October 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15.8% 14.8–16.9% 14.5–17.2% 14.3–17.5% 13.8–18.0%
16–17 October 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
17.7% 16.7–18.8% 16.4–19.1% 16.1–19.4% 15.6–20.0%
14–15 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
18.1% 16.9–19.4% 16.6–19.7% 16.3–20.0% 15.7–20.7%
10–15 October 2019 Kantar Public 18.2% 16.8–19.7% 16.4–20.1% 16.1–20.5% 15.4–21.2%
9–11 October 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times
17.1% 16.0–18.2% 15.8–18.5% 15.5–18.8% 15.0–19.4%
9–10 October 2019 ComRes
Daily Express
17.9% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.3–19.7% 15.8–20.2%
8–9 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
19.7% 18.4–21.0% 18.1–21.4% 17.8–21.7% 17.2–22.3%
4–6 October 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
18.6% 17.6–19.8% 17.3–20.1% 17.0–20.4% 16.5–21.0%
3–4 October 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15.2% 14.2–16.3% 13.9–16.6% 13.7–16.9% 13.2–17.4%
1–4 October 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
20.1% 18.8–21.5% 18.4–21.8% 18.1–22.2% 17.5–22.8%
30 September–1 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
22.9% 21.6–24.2% 21.2–24.6% 20.9–25.0% 20.3–25.7%
26–27 September 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
20.9% 19.6–22.2% 19.3–22.6% 19.0–22.9% 18.4–23.6%
25–27 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
19.9% 18.8–21.1% 18.5–21.4% 18.2–21.7% 17.7–22.3%
24–25 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
21.1% 19.8–22.5% 19.5–22.8% 19.2–23.2% 18.6–23.8%
25 September 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
22.0% 20.3–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.6% 18.8–25.5%
24 September 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
20.8% 19.3–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.5–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
19–20 September 2019 YouGov
People’s Vote
22.0% 20.9–23.3% 20.5–23.6% 20.3–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
19–20 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
17.1% 16.0–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.5–18.8% 15.0–19.3%
18–19 September 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
20.2% 19.1–21.4% 18.8–21.7% 18.5–22.0% 18.0–22.6%
17–18 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
22.5% 21.2–23.9% 20.9–24.3% 20.5–24.6% 19.9–25.3%
13–16 September 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
23.2% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.7%
12–15 September 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.3%
11–13 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
16.1% 15.1–17.2% 14.8–17.5% 14.5–17.8% 14.1–18.3%
9–10 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
18.9% 17.7–20.1% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.8% 16.5–21.4%
5–9 September 2019 Kantar Public 20.0% 18.6–21.6% 18.2–22.1% 17.8–22.5% 17.1–23.2%
6–8 September 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.6–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
5–7 September 2019 Deltapoll
The Sun on Sunday
16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.6–18.4% 15.4–18.6% 14.9–19.2%
5–6 September 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
18.9% 17.7–20.2% 17.4–20.5% 17.1–20.9% 16.6–21.5%
5–6 September 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
17.8% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
5–6 September 2019 Panelbase 19.2% 17.6–20.8% 17.2–21.3% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
4–6 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.6–18.4% 15.3–18.6% 14.9–19.2%
4–6 September 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
3–6 September 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
17.8% 16.6–19.1% 16.3–19.5% 16.0–19.8% 15.4–20.5%
3–4 September 2019 Hanbury Strategy 16.9% 15.4–18.5% 15.0–18.9% 14.7–19.3% 14.0–20.1%
2–3 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
15.9% 14.8–17.1% 14.5–17.5% 14.2–17.8% 13.7–18.4%
29–31 August 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
17.6% 16.6–18.7% 16.3–19.1% 16.0–19.3% 15.5–19.9%
29–30 August 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.2%
28–29 August 2019 YouGov 20.7% 19.5–21.9% 19.2–22.3% 18.9–22.6% 18.4–23.2%
27–28 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.6–18.3% 15.3–18.6% 14.8–19.2%
22–23 August 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
19.3% 18.2–20.4% 17.9–20.8% 17.6–21.0% 17.1–21.6%
21–23 August 2019 Opinium
The Observer
14.8% 13.8–15.9% 13.5–16.2% 13.3–16.4% 12.9–17.0%
20–21 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
19.9% 18.7–21.2% 18.4–21.6% 18.1–21.9% 17.5–22.5%
15–19 August 2019 Kantar Public 14.9% 13.6–16.4% 13.3–16.8% 13.0–17.1% 12.4–17.8%
13–14 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
19.8% 18.5–21.1% 18.2–21.4% 17.9–21.8% 17.3–22.4%
7–12 August 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
18.9% 17.7–20.3% 17.3–20.7% 17.0–21.0% 16.5–21.6%
6–11 August 2019 Survation 21.2% 20.0–22.4% 19.7–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.9–23.6%
9–11 August 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
15.9% 14.9–17.0% 14.6–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 13.9–18.1%
8–9 August 2019 Opinium
The Observer
13.1% 12.1–14.1% 11.9–14.4% 11.7–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
5–6 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
20.8% 19.6–22.2% 19.2–22.5% 18.9–22.9% 18.3–23.5%
29–30 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
19.7% 18.7–20.9% 18.4–21.2% 18.1–21.5% 17.6–22.1%
26–30 July 2019 Ipsos MORI 19.2% 17.6–20.8% 17.2–21.3% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
26–28 July 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
15.7% 14.7–16.8% 14.4–17.1% 14.1–17.3% 13.7–17.9%
25–27 July 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.5% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
25–26 July 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
19.9% 18.7–21.2% 18.4–21.6% 18.1–21.9% 17.5–22.5%
24–26 July 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15.7% 14.6–16.7% 14.4–17.1% 14.1–17.3% 13.7–17.8%
24–25 July 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
19.1% 18.0–20.2% 17.7–20.6% 17.4–20.9% 16.9–21.4%
23–24 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
22.5% 21.2–23.9% 20.9–24.2% 20.6–24.6% 20.0–25.2%
16–17 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
20.1% 18.9–21.4% 18.6–21.8% 18.3–22.1% 17.7–22.7%
15–16 July 2019 ComRes 16.8% 15.8–17.9% 15.5–18.2% 15.2–18.5% 14.7–19.0%
10–11 July 2019 Survation 18.8% 17.3–20.4% 16.8–20.9% 16.5–21.3% 15.8–22.1%
10–11 July 2019 ComRes
The Express
15.0% 14.0–16.2% 13.7–16.5% 13.4–16.8% 13.0–17.3%
9–10 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
18.9% 17.7–20.2% 17.4–20.5% 17.1–20.9% 16.5–21.5%
5–7 July 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
16.2% 15.2–17.3% 14.9–17.6% 14.7–17.9% 14.2–18.4%
3–5 July 2019 Opinium
The Observer
14.8% 13.9–15.9% 13.6–16.2% 13.3–16.5% 12.9–17.0%
2–5 July 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
18.1% 16.9–19.5% 16.6–19.8% 16.3–20.2% 15.7–20.8%
2–3 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
19.9% 18.6–21.2% 18.3–21.6% 18.0–21.9% 17.4–22.6%
24–25 June 2019 YouGov
The Times
18.9% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.4% 17.3–20.7% 16.8–21.3%
21–25 June 2019 Ipsos MORI 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.0% 19.2–25.8%
19–20 June 2019 Survation
Daily Mail on Sunday
17.8% 16.8–18.9% 16.4–19.3% 16.2–19.5% 15.7–20.1%
19–20 June 2019 Opinium
The Observer
16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
13–14 June 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
19.1% 17.9–20.4% 17.5–20.7% 17.3–21.0% 16.7–21.7%
9–10 June 2019 YouGov
The Times
22.2% 20.9–23.5% 20.5–23.9% 20.2–24.2% 19.6–24.8%
7–9 June 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
16.8% 15.8–17.9% 15.5–18.2% 15.2–18.5% 14.8–19.1%
4–7 June 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
16.8% 15.7–18.1% 15.3–18.5% 15.0–18.8% 14.5–19.4%
4–6 June 2019 YouGov
The Times
19.9% 18.6–21.2% 18.3–21.6% 18.0–21.9% 17.4–22.6%
28–30 May 2019 Opinium
The Observer
16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
29–30 May 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
15.7% 14.8–16.7% 14.5–16.9% 14.3–17.2% 13.9–17.7%
28–29 May 2019 YouGov
The Times
23.9% 22.7–25.3% 22.3–25.7% 22.0–26.0% 21.4–26.6%
23–24 May 2019 Lord Ashcroft 17.0% 16.5–17.5% 16.4–17.6% 16.3–17.8% 16.0–18.0%
22 May 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
13.0% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.1–15.0%
14–21 May 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times
13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
17–20 May 2019 Opinium
The Times
12.2% 11.3–13.2% 11.1–13.5% 10.9–13.7% 10.4–14.2%
8–17 May 2019 YouGov
Best For Britain
18.0% 17.5–18.5% 17.3–18.7% 17.2–18.8% 17.0–19.1%
17 May 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
14–16 May 2019 Opinium
The Observer
11.1% 10.2–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.6% 9.4–13.0%
13–14 May 2019 YouGov
The Times
15.8% 14.7–17.0% 14.4–17.4% 14.1–17.7% 13.6–18.3%
10–14 May 2019 Ipsos MORI 14.6% 13.2–16.0% 12.9–16.4% 12.6–16.8% 12.0–17.5%
9–13 May 2019 Kantar Public 15.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.9% 13.1–17.2% 12.5–17.9%
9–13 May 2019 Hanbury Strategy 12.8% 11.9–13.9% 11.7–14.1% 11.4–14.4% 11.0–14.9%
10–12 May 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
13.3% 12.3–14.3% 12.1–14.6% 11.9–14.8% 11.4–15.3%
8–10 May 2019 Opinium
The Observer
11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
7–10 May 2019 BMG Research 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
8–9 May 2019 YouGov
The Times
16.1% 15.2–17.2% 14.9–17.5% 14.7–17.7% 14.2–18.2%
9 May 2019 ComRes
Brexit Express
14.8% 13.9–15.9% 13.6–16.2% 13.4–16.5% 12.9–17.0%
3–7 May 2019 Opinium 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
29–30 April 2019 YouGov 12.9% 11.9–14.0% 11.6–14.3% 11.3–14.6% 10.9–15.2%
23–24 April 2019 YouGov
The Times
11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1%
18–24 April 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times
7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
21–23 April 2019 Opinium
The Observer
6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
16–17 April 2019 YouGov
The Times
10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
17 April 2019 OnePoll
The Sun on Sunday
9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
16–17 April 2019 ORB
The Telegraph
8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
9–12 April 2019 Opinium
The Observer
8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
4–8 April 2019 Kantar Public 10.9% 9.8–12.2% 9.5–12.5% 9.3–12.8% 8.8–13.5%
5–8 April 2019 Hanbury Strategy
Open Europe
7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
3–6 April 2019 Survation 9.9% 9.4–10.4% 9.3–10.6% 9.2–10.7% 8.9–10.9%
2–5 April 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
11.1% 10.2–12.2% 9.9–12.6% 9.6–12.8% 9.2–13.4%
2–3 April 2019 YouGov 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
28–30 March 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
28–29 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.7%
24–25 March 2019 YouGov
The Times
11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
20–22 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
15–19 March 2019 Ipsos MORI 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
14–15 March 2019 YouGov
People’s Vote
11.0% 11.3–13.3% 11.0–13.6% 10.8–13.9% 10.3–14.4%
15 March 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
12–15 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
7–11 March 2019 Kantar Public 8.1% 7.1–9.2% 6.9–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.2–10.4%
4–8 March 2019 BMG Research 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.7% 10.0–14.3%
3–4 March 2019 YouGov
The Times
11.0% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.2% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8%
26 February–1 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
8.9% 8.2–9.8% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.3% 7.4–10.7%
22–23 February 2019 YouGov
The Times
10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.5% 8.2–12.0%
21–23 February 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
18–19 February 2019 YouGov
The Times
10.1% 9.3–11.1% 9.0–11.3% 8.8–11.6% 8.4–12.0%
18 February 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.5% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
13–15 February 2019 Opinium
The Observer
8.1% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.2% 7.0–9.4% 6.6–9.8%
7–11 February 2019 Kantar Public 10.0% 9.0–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.5%
4–8 February 2019 BMG Research 12.8% 11.8–14.0% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.6% 10.7–15.2%
1–5 February 2019 Ipsos MORI 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.6%
3–4 February 2019 YouGov
The Times
10.0% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
30 January–1 February 2019 Opinium
The Observer
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
30 January 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
9.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
23–25 January 2019 Opinium
People’s Vote
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
16–18 January 2019 Opinium
The Observer
6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.5–8.5%
16–18 January 2019 ICM Research 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
10–17 January 2019 Number Cruncher Politics
Politico
8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
16–17 January 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
14–15 January 2019 ComRes
Daily Express
8.1% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.8%
13–14 January 2019 YouGov
The Times
11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1%
10–14 January 2019 Kantar Public 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.5–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
10–11 January 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
8–11 January 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.5–13.8% 10.0–14.3%
6–7 January 2019 YouGov
The Times
11.1% 10.2–12.2% 9.9–12.5% 9.7–12.7% 9.3–13.2%
21 December 2018–4 January 2019 YouGov
People’s Vote
10.2% 10.0–10.5% 9.9–10.5% 9.8–10.6% 9.7–10.7%
18–20 December 2018 Opinium 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.1–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
16–17 December 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.8%
12–14 December 2018 YouGov
People’s Vote
10.1% 9.6–10.7% 9.4–10.8% 9.3–11.0% 9.0–11.2%
13–14 December 2018 Opinium
The Observer
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
10–11 December 2018 Populus 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.2% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8%
6–7 December 2018 YouGov
The Sunday Times
10.2% 9.3–11.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.9–11.8% 8.4–12.3%
5–6 December 2018 Kantar Public 8.9% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.4% 7.4–10.7% 7.0–11.3%
30 November–5 December 2018 Ipsos MORI 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
3–4 December 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.9% 8.1–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.9%
30 November–2 December 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
9.1% 8.4–10.0% 8.1–10.3% 8.0–10.5% 7.6–10.9%
26–27 November 2018 YouGov
The Times
10.1% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
18–19 November 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.1% 7.3–9.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–10.0%
14–15 November 2018 Opinium 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
14–15 November 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
8–12 November 2018 Kantar Public 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.3%
2–7 November 2018 Panelbase
Constitutional Commission
7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.4–9.6%
4–5 November 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–10.0%
20 October–2 November 2018 Survation
Channel 4
8.2% 7.9–8.4% 7.8–8.5% 7.8–8.6% 7.7–8.7%
29–30 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.9%
26–28 October 2018 ICM Research 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.8%
24–26 October 2018 Deltapoll
Mirror
6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
22–23 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.2% 6.9–9.4% 6.5–9.8%
19–22 October 2018 Ipsos MORI 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.5% 8.2–11.8% 7.7–12.5%
14–15 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.2% 8.3–10.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.5–11.1%
11–15 October 2018 Kantar Public 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.5%
11–12 October 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
10 October 2018 Survation 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
8–9 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
4–7 October 2018 BMG Research 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.5% 10.5–13.7% 10.0–14.3%
3–5 October 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
3–5 October 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.1–12.1%
30 September–1 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%
28–29 September 2018 BMG Research
HuffPost UK
11.9% 10.8–13.2% 10.4–13.5% 10.2–13.9% 9.7–14.5%
26–28 September 2018 Opinium
The Observer
9.2% 8.4–10.0% 8.2–10.3% 8.0–10.5% 7.6–10.9%
26–27 September 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.9%
24–25 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
11.1% 10.1–12.1% 9.9–12.4% 9.6–12.7% 9.2–13.2%
21–24 September 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.7%
21–22 September 2018 BMG Research
HuffPost UK
10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
18–20 September 2018 Opinium 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.4–10.7%
18–19 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
11.0% 10.2–11.8% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7%
14–18 September 2018 Ipsos MORI 13.0% 11.8–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
12–13 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
11.1% 10.2–12.2% 9.9–12.5% 9.7–12.7% 9.2–13.3%
11–13 September 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7.1% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
6–10 September 2018 Kantar Public 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.7% 8.5–12.0% 8.0–12.6%
7–9 September 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
7 September 2018 Survation
Daily Mail
10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.7%
4–7 September 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.6% 9.0–13.2%
3–4 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
31 August–1 September 2018 Survation 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
28–29 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
10.1% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
20–21 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
17–19 August 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.8% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.9% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5%
14–17 August 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
14–16 August 2018 Deltapoll
The Sun on Sunday
7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.4–9.7%
13–14 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.9% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.3% 6.3–9.8%
9–13 August 2018 Number Cruncher Politics 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
9–13 August 2018 Kantar Public 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.6–10.4% 7.3–10.7% 6.9–11.2%
6–10 August 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
10.1% 9.1–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.2–12.2%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
3–5 August 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
30–31 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
20–24 July 2018 Ipsos MORI 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.5% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
22–23 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
10.1% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
20–22 July 2018 ICM Research 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
19–20 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–10.9%
16–17 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.1% 8.2–10.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.8–10.5% 7.4–11.0%
12–14 July 2018 Deltapoll
The Sun on Sunday
7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.9%
10–13 July 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
10–11 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
8–9 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–10.9%
5–9 July 2018 Kantar Public 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.5–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
6–9 July 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
7 July 2018 Survation 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
3–5 July 2018 BMG Research 10.3% 9.3–11.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–11.9% 8.4–12.4%
3–4 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.2–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
22–27 June 2018 Ipsos MORI 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
25–26 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
22–24 June 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
19–20 June 2018 Survation
Good Morning Britain
7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
18–19 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.9% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.9%
11–12 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–10.0%
8–10 June 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
5–8 June 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.1–13.3%
5–7 June 2018 Opinium
The Observer
6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.5–8.5%
4–5 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
31 May–4 June 2018 Survation 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.5–10.9%
28–29 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.9% 8.1–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.3–10.9%
25–29 May 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
18–22 May 2018 Ipsos MORI 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
20–21 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%
16–17 May 2018 ComRes
Daily Mail
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
15–16 May 2018 Opinium
The Observer
5.9% 5.3–6.7% 5.1–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.4%
13–14 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
11–13 May 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
8–10 May 2018 Survation 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
8–9 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.1% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%
1–4 May 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
30 April–1 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.1% 6.4–8.0% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.5% 5.6–9.0%
27–29 April 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
27–29 April 2018 ComRes
Daily Express
8.9% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.3–10.6%
24–25 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.8%
20–24 April 2018 Ipsos MORI 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.6%
16–17 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.0% 7.2–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
14 April 2018 Survation
The Mail on Sunday
8.9% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.0% 7.8–10.2% 7.4–10.7%
10–13 April 2018 BMG Research 11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.7% 9.2–13.3%
10–12 April 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
11–12 April 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
9–10 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.0% 8.2–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
6–8 April 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
4–5 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
6.9% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.7%
27 March–5 April 2018 Number Cruncher Politics 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
26–27 March 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.9–9.5% 6.5–10.0%
16–18 March 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.9% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.3% 6.3–9.8%
13–16 March 2018 BMG Research 10.0% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
14–15 March 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
13–15 March 2018 Opinium
The Observer
6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
7–8 March 2018 Survation
Good Morning Britain
8.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
2–7 March 2018 Ipsos MORI 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
5–6 March 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
2–4 March 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
6.9% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5%
26–27 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
19–20 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
16–19 February 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
12–13 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.1% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.9%
6–12 February 2018 Kantar Public 8.1% 7.4–8.8% 7.2–9.1% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.6%
6–9 February 2018 BMG Research 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.9%
6–8 February 2018 Opinium
The Observer
6.9% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.5%
5–6 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
2–4 February 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
28–29 January 2018 YouGov
The Times
6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.7%
26–29 January 2018 Survation 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
19–23 January 2018 Ipsos MORI 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
10–19 January 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.0% 6.5–7.5% 6.3–7.7% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1%
16–17 January 2018 YouGov
The Times
7.1% 6.3–7.9% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8%
12–14 January 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
7.1% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
11–12 January 2018 Opinium
The Observer
6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.8–7.5%
9–12 January 2018 BMG Research 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
7–8 January 2018 YouGov
The Times
9.1% 8.2–10.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.8–10.6% 7.4–11.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Liberal Democrats.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 2% 100% Last Result
8.5–9.5% 8% 98%  
9.5–10.5% 8% 91%  
10.5–11.5% 18% 82%  
11.5–12.5% 31% 64% Median
12.5–13.5% 22% 33%  
13.5–14.5% 8% 11%  
14.5–15.5% 2% 3%  
15.5–16.5% 0.3% 0.3%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 12 seats (General Election of 8 June 2017)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 30 20–33 17–37 16–38 14–43
10–11 December 2019 Survation 17 15–20 14–21 13–22 10–25
10–11 December 2019 Panelbase 28 24–30 23–30 22–30 21–31
10–11 December 2019 Opinium 30 28–30 27–31 26–31 23–32
9–11 December 2019 Kantar Public 31 30–33 30–33 30–34 28–36
9–11 December 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
30 28–32 27–33 26–33 23–35
9–11 December 2019 Deltapoll 21 18–26 17–28 16–29 14–30
6–11 December 2019 BMG Research 38 33–42 32–43 31–44 30–47
8–10 December 2019 Number Cruncher Politics
Bloomberg
29 26–32 23–33 21–35 19–37
9–10 December 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
30 28–33 27–33 26–35 25–36
6–9 December 2019 ICM Research 30 28–32 27–33 26–35 24–37
5–8 December 2019 Qriously 31 30–32 29–33 28–35 26–37
6–8 December 2019 ComRes
Remain United
30 28–31 28–31 27–31 26–32
5–7 December 2019 Survation
Good Morning Britain
27 20–30 18–30 18–31 17–33
5–7 December 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
27 21–30 20–30 19–31 18–32
5–6 December 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
31 30–35 30–36 29–36 27–38
4–6 December 2019 Panelbase 31 29–33 29–35 28–35 27–37
4–6 December 2019 Opinium
The Observer
30 29–32 29–32 28–33 26–36
4–6 December 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
35 32–38 31–41 31–43 30–47
4–5 December 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Telegraph
31 29–33 28–33 27–35 25–36
2–4 December 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
30 29–33 28–35 27–35 26–37
2–3 December 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
30 26–32 25–33 24–35 22–36
2–3 December 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
30 29–32 28–33 27–33 25–36
28 November–2 December 2019 Kantar Public 36 31–42 30–44 30–46 29–49
29 November–2 December 2019 ICM Research 32 30–36 30–37 29–38 28–40
26–30 November 2019 Survation
Good Morning Britain
28 22–31 21–32 20–32 18–35
28–30 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
36 32–40 31–43 30–44 30–46
28–29 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
31 30–35 29–36 29–36 26–38
27–29 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
30 29–32 28–32 28–33 26–35
27–28 November 2019 Panelbase 32 30–36 30–37 30–38 28–40
27–28 November 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Telegraph
31 30–35 30–37 30–38 28–39
26–27 November 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
33 32–37 31–40 30–41 29–43
25–26 November 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
31 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–39
25–26 November 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
33 31–37 30–38 30–39 29–42
21–25 November 2019 Kantar Public 33 31–38 30–41 30–42 28–46
22–25 November 2019 ICM Research 32 30–36 29–37 29–38 28–41
20–23 November 2019 Survation
Good Morning Britain
39 33–47 32–48 31–50 30–52
21–23 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
41 36–47 33–48 33–49 32–51
21–22 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
42 36–47 36–48 34–49 32–51
20–22 November 2019 Panelbase 35 31–38 30–40 30–42 29–44
20–22 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
28 24–30 22–30 22–31 20–32
20–21 November 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Express
38 35–43 33–44 32–46 31–48
19–21 November 2019 BMG Research 52 47–57 46–59 44–61 41–62
12–20 November 2019 YouGov 36 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
18–19 November 2019 YouGov
The Times
37 33–43 32–44 32–46 31–48
15–19 November 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
40 33–46 32–48 31–49 30–51
18–19 November 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
37 33–42 32–44 32–46 31–48
14–18 November 2019 Kantar Public 38 33–45 32–47 31–48 30–50
15–18 November 2019 ICM Research 32 30–36 30–38 30–38 29–40
14–16 November 2019 Survation 32 29–38 29–40 28–42 26–46
10–16 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
28 23–30 21–30 20–31 19–32
14–15 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
35 32–40 31–42 30–44 30–46
13–15 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
32 30–36 30–37 30–37 29–39
9–15 November 2019 BMG Research 48 43–55 42–57 41–59 37–61
13–14 November 2019 Panelbase 36 32–43 31–45 30–47 30–50
13–14 November 2019 ComRes
The Sunday Telegraph
36 32–40 32–42 31–43 30–45
11–12 November 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
39 33–46 32–47 31–48 30–50
11–12 November 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
44 38–48 36–49 36–50 35–55
7–11 November 2019 Kantar Public 50 46–59 43–61 42–61 38–66
8–11 November 2019 ICM Research 42 37–47 36–48 35–49 32–50
8–10 November 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
49 46–58 46–59 44–60 42–62
6–9 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
44 37–50 36–51 35–51 33–56
7–8 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times and Sky News
48 44–54 43–57 42–58 38–61
6–8 November 2019 Survation 55 47–60 46–61 46–62 44–65
6–8 November 2019 Panelbase 41 35–46 33–48 32–49 31–53
6–8 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
37 34–42 33–44 32–46 30–48
5–8 November 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
48 44–54 43–59 43–60 38–61
5–6 November 2019 YouGov
The Times and Sky News
54 48–59 47–60 46–62 42–66
30 October–5 November 2019 ComRes
Remain United
48 47–56 47–57 46–58 46–60
1–4 November 2019 YouGov
The Times
48 45–49 44–49 43–50 41–53
1–4 November 2019 ICM Research
Reuters
43 38–48 36–49 36–49 34–51
31 October–2 November 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
37 32–43 31–44 30–46 29–49
30 October–1 November 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
47 41–49 39–49 37–52 35–55
30 October–1 November 2019 Opinium
The Observer
43 37–46 36–48 36–48 32–50
30–31 October 2019 Panelbase 37 31–44 30–46 30–48 29–51
30–31 October 2019 ORB
The Telegraph
42 36–46 35–47 35–48 32–49
30–31 October 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
50 47–60 46–60 46–61 42–65
29–30 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
60 50–65 50–66 49–68 48–71
29–30 October 2019 Survation 64 57–72 55–74 51–76 48–79
17–28 October 2019 YouGov 62 61–64 59–65 59–65 58–68
25–28 October 2019 Ipsos MORI 60 51–66 49–68 48–71 45–75
24–25 October 2019 YouGov 56 51–63 50–65 50–68 49–71
23–25 October 2019 Opinium
The Observer
44 37–46 36–48 34–49 33–49
20–21 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
63 53–69 52–70 50–73 49–76
18–21 October 2019 Deltapoll 60 53–65 50–69 49–69 48–73
17–18 October 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
74 67–84 65–86 62–88 59–94
17–18 October 2019 Panelbase 50 46–61 46–62 44–65 37–71
15–17 October 2019 Opinium
The Observer
47 45–50 43–52 42–56 38–60
16–17 October 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
62 57–67 56–68 55–69 51–72
14–15 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
58 49–63 48–64 48–66 46–69
10–15 October 2019 Kantar Public 55 47–63 46–63 45–63 42–68
9–11 October 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times
57 52–63 47–64 46–66 46–69
9–10 October 2019 ComRes
Daily Express
61 58–67 56–69 54–70 49–72
8–9 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
69 63–76 61–78 59–80 55–81
4–6 October 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
65 60–72 59–74 58–75 55–76
3–4 October 2019 Opinium
The Observer
48 40–49 38–49 37–50 34–52
1–4 October 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
73 66–79 65–81 64–84 61–88
30 September–1 October 2019 YouGov
The Times
80 79–83 74–90 73–90 68–93
26–27 September 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
74 67–80 64–81 63–83 59–88
25–27 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
61 59–66 59–68 59–72 55–75
24–25 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
80 72–87 68–88 68–89 66–92
25 September 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
88 79–101 76–105 75–107 71–116
24 September 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
78 72–87 70–93 68–96 63–100
19–20 September 2019 YouGov
People’s Vote
84 77–89 75–90 74–91 72–95
19–20 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
50 46–57 46–60 46–64 43–64
18–19 September 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
73 72–82 72–88 70–88 65–88
17–18 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
82 80–89 79–90 77–90 74–97
13–16 September 2019 Ipsos MORI
Evening Standard
80 73–89 71–92 68–95 66–99
12–15 September 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
75 72–82 72–85 71–87 67–92
11–13 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
46 46–48 44–50 42–50 41–57
9–10 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
68 60–76 58–76 57–78 51–84
5–9 September 2019 Kantar Public 63 58–69 49–70 49–74 49–77
6–8 September 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
60 58–68 57–72 55–73 45–73
5–7 September 2019 Deltapoll
The Sun on Sunday
58 54–66 53–67 52–68 47–71
5–6 September 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
61 58–72 57–72 50–73 49–76
5–6 September 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
69 58–76 57–80 57–82 53–86
5–6 September 2019 Panelbase 70 65–75 62–76 60–78 58–83
4–6 September 2019 Opinium
The Observer
54 48–58 47–59 45–59 45–63
4–6 September 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
74 67–77 65–78 64–81 61–85
3–6 September 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
71 63–76 62–76 62–77 59–82
3–4 September 2019 Hanbury Strategy 59 55–64 52–65 47–69 45–72
2–3 September 2019 YouGov
The Times
48 46–57 46–59 44–60 41–60
29–31 August 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
58 54–64 47–65 47–67 47–70
29–30 August 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
77 69–87 65–87 63–89 61–95
28–29 August 2019 YouGov 75 71–80 70–80 67–81 62–85
27–28 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
59 49–62 48–62 47–65 46–67
22–23 August 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
70 65–74 62–75 62–77 59–80
21–23 August 2019 Opinium
The Observer
47 46–55 45–55 43–57 41–59
20–21 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
70 66–79 64–79 64–80 59–90
15–19 August 2019 Kantar Public 37 35–42 33–42 32–43 30–48
13–14 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
76 71–83 70–83 68–86 62–91
7–12 August 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
70 62–78 61–78 60–79 59–85
6–11 August 2019 Survation 80 75–88 75–90 74–93 71–100
9–11 August 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
58 49–61 49–65 46–68 46–68
8–9 August 2019 Opinium
The Observer
39 39–47 38–49 36–52 35–55
5–6 August 2019 YouGov
The Times
77 70–84 70–84 66–85 65–91
29–30 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
71 62–72 60–74 60–76 59–77
26–30 July 2019 Ipsos MORI 67 59–75 58–78 55–80 50–85
26–28 July 2019 ComRes
Britain Elects
63 56–65 54–66 54–71 46–72
25–27 July 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
67 61–72 59–74 58–75 57–76
25–26 July 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
75 70–80 68–83 65–84 60–86
24–26 July 2019 Opinium
The Observer
57 54–65 47–66 46–67 44–67
24–25 July 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
78 69–80 68–80 68–80 65–81
23–24 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
106 95–114 91–117 89–119 86–122
16–17 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
89 81–99 79–99 76–101 73–106
15–16 July 2019 ComRes 71 66–76 64–78 63–79 61–84
10–11 July 2019 Survation 83 73–96 70–98 69–101 66–107
10–11 July 2019 ComRes
The Express
66 61–71 59–72 56–74 54–76
9–10 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
85 75–91 74–97 73–100 71–102
5–7 July 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
68 64–72 63–74 60–76 57–80
3–5 July 2019 Opinium
The Observer
66 62–69 62–70 61–71 56–74
2–5 July 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
72 65–78 63–81 61–83 59–86
2–3 July 2019 YouGov
The Times
89 81–99 80–99 77–104 74–109
24–25 June 2019 YouGov
The Times
91 82–98 80–100 79–102 75–109
21–25 June 2019 Ipsos MORI 94 82–106 80–115 75–116 74–119
19–20 June 2019 Survation
Daily Mail on Sunday
78 71–85 70–87 69–90 66–94
19–20 June 2019 Opinium
The Observer
73 69–82 68–85 67–86 67–91
13–14 June 2019 YouGov
The Sunday Times
91 81–100 79–101 78–104 75–108
9–10 June 2019 YouGov
The Times
117 116–123 114–126 111–132 107–132
7–9 June 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
75 69–81 69–81 67–84 64–89
4–7 June 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
69 64–74 62–79 62–80 56–84
4–6 June 2019 YouGov
The Times
99 89–111 87–112 86–114 84–117
28–30 May 2019 Opinium
The Observer
81 75–84 74–85 72–85 70–94
29–30 May 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
73 70–80 68–82 67–86 66–89
28–29 May 2019 YouGov
The Times
124 114–133 111–136 108–139 105–142
23–24 May 2019 Lord Ashcroft 95 93–100 92–102 91–104 90–106
22 May 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
45 44–54 44–55 42–56 40–58
14–21 May 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times
60 57–66 55–68 54–69 53–73
17–20 May 2019 Opinium
The Times
54 51–61 49–62 47–62 44–65
8–17 May 2019 YouGov
Best For Britain
78 74–83 73–83 72–83 72–85
17 May 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
48 43–55 40–57 39–60 35–65
14–16 May 2019 Opinium
The Observer
53 45–55 44–58 42–60 39–62
13–14 May 2019 YouGov
The Times
67 62–73 61–75 58–77 57–81
10–14 May 2019 Ipsos MORI 65 56–70 54–72 53–75 45–79
9–13 May 2019 Kantar Public 60 54–67 52–68 50–71 48–73
9–13 May 2019 Hanbury Strategy 62 55–67 55–68 54–69 53–73
10–12 May 2019 ComRes
Daily Telegraph
67 60–70 58–72 57–73 54–76
8–10 May 2019 Opinium
The Observer
53 44–55 44–60 44–61 41–62
7–10 May 2019 BMG Research 72 67–78 65–81 64–84 60–86
8–9 May 2019 YouGov
The Times
70 65–76 64–77 62–78 60–82
9 May 2019 ComRes
Brexit Express
74 69–84 68–86 67–87 64–91
3–7 May 2019 Opinium 44 39–53 38–53 37–54 33–58
29–30 April 2019 YouGov 51 40–56 39–57 38–58 36–60
23–24 April 2019 YouGov
The Times
41 35–45 34–45 33–50 29–54
18–24 April 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times
26 22–32 20–32 19–34 17–37
21–23 April 2019 Opinium
The Observer
14 11–21 10–22 10–23 8–26
16–17 April 2019 YouGov
The Times
34 27–39 27–40 26–42 24–44
17 April 2019 OnePoll
The Sun on Sunday
34 31–42 29–43 28–44 25–45
16–17 April 2019 ORB
The Telegraph
27 23–33 22–34 21–37 19–39
9–12 April 2019 Opinium
The Observer
21 19–25 18–27 16–28 14–31
4–8 April 2019 Kantar Public 32 26–39 25–42 24–43 23–44
5–8 April 2019 Hanbury Strategy
Open Europe
22 16–25 15–26 14–27 12–29
3–6 April 2019 Survation 27 25–27 24–28 24–28 23–28
2–5 April 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
30 27–36 26–37 26–39 23–40
2–3 April 2019 YouGov 38 33–43 31–44 30–45 28–46
28–30 March 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
15 9–20 7–23 5–24 3–26
28–29 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
27 18–29 17–29 15–30 14–32
24–25 March 2019 YouGov
The Times
30 27–34 26–35 26–36 24–38
20–22 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
11 9–15 8–17 4–18 4–21
15–19 March 2019 Ipsos MORI 15 11–22 9–23 6–25 4–27
14–15 March 2019 YouGov
People’s Vote
35 31–40 30–42 30–43 28–45
15 March 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
28 25–31 23–34 20–35 18–39
12–15 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15 12–19 10–21 10–22 8–24
7–11 March 2019 Kantar Public 15 9–20 6–22 5–24 3–27
4–8 March 2019 BMG Research 31 28–35 27–37 26–37 25–42
3–4 March 2019 YouGov
The Times
29 27–31 25–31 24–31 21–34
26 February–1 March 2019 Opinium
The Observer
20 15–25 14–26 13–27 13–29
22–23 February 2019 YouGov
The Times
26 19–29 17–30 16–30 15–31
21–23 February 2019 Deltapoll
The Mail on Sunday
4 1–9 0–12 0–14 0–17
18–19 February 2019 YouGov
The Times
24 20–29 18–29 17–30 14–31
18 February 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
26 21–29 19–31 18–32 16–35
13–15 February 2019 Opinium
The Observer
19 13–25 12–25 12–26 11–28
7–11 February 2019 Kantar Public 25 20–29 18–30 16–31 13–33
4–8 February 2019 BMG Research 35 31–40 30–41 29–43 27–46
1–5 February 2019 Ipsos MORI 26 20–29 17–30 16–32 13–35
3–4 February 2019 YouGov
The Times
24 19–28 18–29 16–30 14–31
30 January–1 February 2019 Opinium
The Observer
15 11–19 9–20 7–21 5–24
30 January 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
24 18–28 16–29 15–29 12–31
23–25 January 2019 Opinium
People’s Vote
10 5–14 4–16 3–16 2–19
16–18 January 2019 Opinium
The Observer
10 8–13 6–14 4–16 2–20
16–18 January 2019 ICM Research 21 19–24 17–26 16–27 15–28
10–17 January 2019 Number Cruncher Politics
Politico
16 10–21 8–23 6–25 4–27
16–17 January 2019 ComRes
Sunday Express
27 23–28 22–28 21–29 19–31
14–15 January 2019 ComRes
Daily Express
18 15–24 14–25 13–25 11–27
13–14 January 2019 YouGov
The Times
29 26–32 24–32 24–33 20–36
10–14 January 2019 Kantar Public 24 17–28 15–29 14–30 12–33
10–11 January 2019 Survation
Daily Mail
27 21–29 20–30 18–31 16–35
8–11 January 2019 BMG Research
The Independent
34 29–39 28–40 27–41 27–44
6–7 January 2019 YouGov
The Times
28 25–31 23–32 22–33 20–33
21 December 2018–4 January 2019 YouGov
People’s Vote
26 26–27 25–27 24–27 24–28
18–20 December 2018 Opinium 5 2–11 2–12 1–13 0–15
16–17 December 2018 YouGov
The Times
10 4–14 3–15 2–16 1–18
12–14 December 2018 YouGov
People’s Vote
24 22–27 22–27 20–28 18–28
13–14 December 2018 Opinium
The Observer
16 12–21 11–23 11–24 9–26
10–11 December 2018 Populus 15 11–16 8–19 7–19 5–23
6–7 December 2018 YouGov
The Sunday Times
26 22–28 20–29 18–30 16–32
5–6 December 2018 Kantar Public 22 15–27 13–27 12–28 11–29
30 November–5 December 2018 Ipsos MORI 22 14–27 13–27 12–28 10–30
3–4 December 2018 YouGov
The Times
19 14–26 13–27 12–27 11–28
30 November–2 December 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
25 20–28 18–28 18–28 16–29
26–27 November 2018 YouGov
The Times
26 21–29 20–30 19–30 17–32
18–19 November 2018 YouGov
The Times
17 13–22 12–24 10–25 6–27
14–15 November 2018 Opinium 11 8–16 4–18 4–20 2–23
14–15 November 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
24 19–27 18–27 17–28 15–29
8–12 November 2018 Kantar Public 15 10–21 8–23 7–25 4–27
2–7 November 2018 Panelbase
Constitutional Commission
15 11–19 10–21 9–22 5–25
4–5 November 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 11–21 9–22 7–23 5–26
20 October–2 November 2018 Survation
Channel 4
17 17–19 17–20 16–20 16–21
29–30 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
10 5–16 4–17 3–18 2–20
26–28 October 2018 ICM Research 21 17–25 16–26 16–27 14–27
24–26 October 2018 Deltapoll
Mirror
4 0–10 0–12 0–14 0–16
22–23 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
13 9–17 7–18 6–19 4–22
19–22 October 2018 Ipsos MORI 25 19–28 17–30 16–31 13–34
14–15 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 16–26 15–26 14–27 12–28
11–15 October 2018 Kantar Public 25 18–28 17–29 15–30 13–32
11–12 October 2018 Opinium
The Observer
14 11–19 10–20 7–21 5–24
10 October 2018 Survation 11 4–17 2–18 2–20 1–24
8–9 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 15–24 13–25 13–26 11–27
4–7 October 2018 BMG Research 31 28–37 27–39 27–40 26–43
3–5 October 2018 Opinium
The Observer
14 9–16 8–16 5–17 3–20
3–5 October 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
26 21–28 19–29 18–30 15–32
30 September–1 October 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 16–25 15–26 14–27 11–28
28–29 September 2018 BMG Research
HuffPost UK
33 28–39 27–41 27–43 24–44
26–28 September 2018 Opinium
The Observer
22 17–26 15–27 14–28 13–28
26–27 September 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
21 18–27 17–28 17–28 15–28
24–25 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
27 23–30 22–31 21–31 19–33
21–24 September 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
21 17–26 16–26 16–27 14–28
21–22 September 2018 BMG Research
HuffPost UK
26 22–29 18–31 16–33 13–36
18–20 September 2018 Opinium 23 17–27 15–27 14–27 12–28
18–19 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
28 25–30 24–31 24–32 21–33
14–18 September 2018 Ipsos MORI 35 30–41 28–42 28–43 27–47
12–13 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
28 25–32 25–33 23–33 20–36
11–13 September 2018 Opinium
The Observer
11 5–15 4–16 4–17 2–19
6–10 September 2018 Kantar Public 26 20–30 18–31 17–32 14–33
7–9 September 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
16 14–20 11–21 10–22 7–25
7 September 2018 Survation
Daily Mail
27 21–29 20–30 18–32 16–35
4–7 September 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
31 29–35 28–36 27–38 25–39
3–4 September 2018 YouGov
The Times
28 25–31 24–32 23–33 20–36
31 August–1 September 2018 Survation 9 3–15 2–16 1–16 0–20
28–29 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
26 21–28 21–29 20–30 16–32
20–21 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 14–25 13–26 12–27 11–28
17–19 August 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
17 15–21 13–22 12–24 9–26
14–17 August 2018 Opinium
The Observer
11 5–15 4–16 4–17 2–19
14–16 August 2018 Deltapoll
The Sun on Sunday
18 15–24 14–25 13–25 10–27
13–14 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 12–20 9–22 7–23 5–26
9–13 August 2018 Number Cruncher Politics 16 11–23 10–25 8–26 4–28
9–13 August 2018 Kantar Public 20 13–26 12–27 12–27 9–28
6–10 August 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
28 25–30 23–30 21–31 19–34
8–9 August 2018 YouGov
The Times
26 20–28 19–30 18–31 15–32
3–5 August 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
12 6–15 5–16 4–17 3–20
30–31 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
27 23–28 21–29 20–30 17–32
20–24 July 2018 Ipsos MORI 26 20–29 17–30 16–31 13–35
22–23 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
27 22–28 21–29 19–30 18–32
20–22 July 2018 ICM Research 17 15–21 13–22 12–23 9–26
19–20 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
21 15–26 13–27 12–27 11–28
16–17 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
24 19–28 18–28 16–29 13–30
12–14 July 2018 Deltapoll
The Sun on Sunday
15 9–18 7–19 5–21 3–24
10–13 July 2018 Opinium
The Observer
17 12–23 12–24 11–25 10–27
10–11 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
27 24–29 22–30 21–30 18–33
8–9 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
22 17–27 15–28 14–28 12–28
5–9 July 2018 Kantar Public 20 14–26 13–27 12–27 9–29
6–9 July 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
21 17–26 17–26 16–27 15–28
7 July 2018 Survation 27 21–29 19–30 17–31 15–35
3–5 July 2018 BMG Research 25 21–27 21–28 20–28 17–30
3–4 July 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 16–26 15–26 14–27 11–28
22–27 June 2018 Ipsos MORI 11 4–16 3–17 2–20 1–22
25–26 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
17 14–23 12–25 12–26 9–28
22–24 June 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
21 17–26 16–26 16–27 15–28
19–20 June 2018 Survation
Good Morning Britain
10 3–16 2–17 2–19 0–22
18–19 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 14–24 14–25 14–26 11–28
11–12 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
15 11–21 8–21 7–21 5–25
8–10 June 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
17 14–19 11–20 10–21 6–24
5–8 June 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
29 27–33 26–34 25–36 22–39
5–7 June 2018 Opinium
The Observer
6 2–10 2–11 2–12 2–13
4–5 June 2018 YouGov
The Times
15 8–19 6–20 6–21 3–23
31 May–4 June 2018 Survation 19 16–24 15–25 15–26 14–27
28–29 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
18 14–23 12–24 12–26 10–27
25–29 May 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
15 11–17 9–19 8–20 6–23
18–22 May 2018 Ipsos MORI 10 4–15 3–17 2–18 1–20
20–21 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 15–24 15–26 14–26 11–28
16–17 May 2018 ComRes
Daily Mail
12 6–15 5–16 4–16 3–19
15–16 May 2018 Opinium
The Observer
3 0–5 0–7 0–8 0–12
13–14 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
20 16–24 15–25 15–26 13–28
11–13 May 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
15 11–20 11–20 10–21 7–23
8–10 May 2018 Survation 16 12–20 10–21 8–22 6–25
8–9 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
19 15–24 14–25 14–26 10–27
1–4 May 2018 BMG Research
The Independent
26 22–28 20–29 18–30 16–33
30 April–1 May 2018 YouGov
The Times
9 4–16 3–16 3–17 2–19
27–29 April 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
17 13–20 11–21 9–22 7–24
27–29 April 2018 ComRes
Daily Express
21 17–26 16–27 16–28 15–28
24–25 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 8–18 6–20 5–21 4–23
20–24 April 2018 Ipsos MORI 23 19–27 17–28 16–29 14–32
16–17 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
15 9–19 7–20 6–22 4–24
14 April 2018 Survation
The Mail on Sunday
20 15–24 13–25 13–26 12–28
10–13 April 2018 BMG Research 28 26–32 25–33 24–33 21–36
10–12 April 2018 Opinium
The Observer
11 5–14 4–15 3–16 2–19
11–12 April 2018 ComRes
Sunday Express
13 8–16 6–16 5–18 3–20
9–10 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
21 16–26 15–27 15–28 12–28
6–8 April 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
12 7–16 5–17 4–18 3–19
4–5 April 2018 YouGov
The Times
10 5–15 3–16 3–17 2–19
27 March–5 April 2018 Number Cruncher Politics 14 7–19 5–21 4–22 2–25
26–27 March 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 11–19 9–21 9–22 7–24
16–18 March 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
15 8–17 8–19 7–20 4–21
13–16 March 2018 BMG Research 27 23–29 21–29 19–30 17–31
14–15 March 2018 YouGov
The Times
8 3–14 2–14 2–15 2–16
13–15 March 2018 Opinium
The Observer
3 1–7 1–8 0–10 0–12
7–8 March 2018 Survation
Good Morning Britain
24 17–26 16–27 15–28 13–31
2–7 March 2018 Ipsos MORI 3 0–9 0–11 0–13 0–15
5–6 March 2018 YouGov
The Times
8 5–15 4–16 3–16 2–18
2–4 March 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
11 7–16 6–16 4–16 4–17
26–27 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
11 5–15 4–15 3–16 2–18
19–20 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 12–20 11–21 9–24 6–26
16–19 February 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
12 5–17 5–17 5–17 3–20
12–13 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 15–21 13–23 10–24 8–26
6–12 February 2018 Kantar Public 15 12–19 11–22 11–22 8–25
6–9 February 2018 BMG Research 17 15–22 14–23 11–25 9–27
6–8 February 2018 Opinium
The Observer
7 4–13 3–15 3–15 2–17
5–6 February 2018 YouGov
The Times
16 12–18 10–20 9–21 8–23
2–4 February 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
19 15–23 13–24 12–25 9–26
28–29 January 2018 YouGov
The Times
4 1–8 0–11 0–13 0–14
26–29 January 2018 Survation 17 14–23 12–26 10–26 8–29
19–23 January 2018 Ipsos MORI 21 15–27 14–28 13–28 10–30
10–19 January 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
13 9–15 8–16 7–17 6–17
16–17 January 2018 YouGov
The Times
9 5–16 4–16 3–17 2–20
12–14 January 2018 ICM Research
The Guardian
13 6–16 5–16 4–17 3–19
11–12 January 2018 Opinium
The Observer
5 2–8 1–11 0–12 0–14
9–12 January 2018 BMG Research 16 13–20 12–22 9–24 6–26
7–8 January 2018 YouGov
The Times
21 16–26 15–27 14–28 12–28

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Liberal Democrats.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
13 0.2% 99.8%  
14 0.3% 99.6%  
15 0.5% 99.3%  
16 2% 98.8%  
17 3% 97%  
18 2% 94%  
19 2% 92%  
20 2% 90%  
21 2% 89%  
22 1.4% 87%  
23 0.7% 85%  
24 2% 85%  
25 1.1% 83%  
26 3% 82%  
27 3% 79%  
28 6% 76%  
29 8% 70%  
30 23% 62% Median
31 16% 39%  
32 9% 23%  
33 5% 14%  
34 0.5% 9%  
35 3% 9%  
36 0.8% 6%  
37 1.3% 6%  
38 2% 4%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.4% 2%  
41 0.2% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.9%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%