Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 16–27 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (NI) | 0.0% | 46.1% | 43.9–48.4% | 43.2–49.0% | 42.7–49.6% | 41.6–50.6% |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.7% | 14.2–17.5% | 13.7–18.0% | 13.4–18.4% | 12.7–19.3% |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.2–9.7% | 6.9–10.1% | 6.6–10.4% | 6.1–11.1% |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.5% | 5.3–8.8% | 4.8–9.4% |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.5–5.4% | 3.3–5.7% | 3.1–6.0% | 2.8–6.5% |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Прогресивна България (NI) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Продължаваме промяната (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Да, България! (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Демократична България (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Прогресивна България (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Прогресивна България (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 75% | 98% | Median |
| 9 | 22% | 23% | Majority |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 81% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 12% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи – Ново начало (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Възраждане (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Възраждане (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Маркет ЛИНКС
- Commissioner(s): bTV
- Fieldwork period: 16–27 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 807
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.70%