Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 21–28 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Има такъв народ 23.8% 25.2% 22.8–27.8% 22.2–28.5% 21.6–29.2% 20.5–30.4%
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 19.7% 17.6–22.1% 17.0–22.8% 16.5–23.4% 15.5–24.6%
БСП за България 13.2% 16.1% 14.2–18.4% 13.7–19.0% 13.2–19.6% 12.3–20.7%
Демократична България 12.5% 15.2% 13.3–17.4% 12.7–18.0% 12.3–18.5% 11.4–19.6%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 9.8% 8.3–11.7% 7.9–12.3% 7.5–12.8% 6.9–13.7%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 5.7% 4.6–7.3% 4.3–7.7% 4.0–8.1% 3.5–8.9%
Възраждане 3.0% 4.3% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.1% 2.9–6.5% 2.5–7.2%
Българските патриоти 3.1% 2.2% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–3.8% 1.0–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Има такъв народ 65 63 57–70 55–72 54–73 51–77
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 50 44–55 42–57 41–59 39–62
БСП за България 36 41 36–46 34–48 33–49 31–53
Демократична България 34 38 33–43 32–45 31–47 28–50
Движение за права и свободи 29 25 21–30 20–31 19–32 17–35
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 14 11–18 11–19 0–20 0–22
Възраждане 0 11 0–14 0–15 0–16 0–18
Българските патриоти 0 0 0 0 0 0–11

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 0.5% 99.3%  
53 0.8% 98.8%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 3% 95%  
57 4% 92%  
58 5% 88%  
59 5% 83%  
60 6% 78%  
61 7% 72%  
62 10% 65%  
63 6% 55% Median
64 9% 50%  
65 9% 41% Last Result
66 7% 32%  
67 3% 25%  
68 7% 22%  
69 4% 15%  
70 3% 11%  
71 2% 8%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.2% 4%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.2%  
77 0.3% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.5%  
40 1.5% 99.1%  
41 1.2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 3% 93%  
44 4% 90%  
45 5% 86%  
46 6% 82%  
47 6% 76%  
48 11% 70%  
49 9% 59%  
50 9% 50% Median
51 7% 41%  
52 7% 35%  
53 8% 27%  
54 4% 19%  
55 5% 15%  
56 3% 10%  
57 3% 7%  
58 1.0% 4%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 0.4% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.5%  
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.6% 99.6%  
32 1.1% 99.0%  
33 2% 98%  
34 3% 96%  
35 3% 93%  
36 7% 91% Last Result
37 6% 84%  
38 8% 78%  
39 12% 71%  
40 7% 59%  
41 12% 52% Median
42 7% 40%  
43 7% 33%  
44 9% 25%  
45 4% 16%  
46 4% 13%  
47 3% 9%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.4%  
52 0.3% 0.8%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.5%  
30 1.0% 99.0%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 5% 93%  
34 6% 88% Last Result
35 8% 82%  
36 8% 74%  
37 9% 65%  
38 9% 56% Median
39 7% 47%  
40 11% 40%  
41 7% 30%  
42 8% 22%  
43 5% 14%  
44 3% 9%  
45 2% 7%  
46 1.3% 4%  
47 0.9% 3%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.2%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.5% 99.7%  
18 0.9% 99.2%  
19 2% 98%  
20 4% 96%  
21 7% 92%  
22 6% 84%  
23 11% 78%  
24 12% 68%  
25 13% 55% Median
26 12% 42%  
27 7% 31%  
28 9% 23%  
29 5% 15% Last Result
30 5% 10%  
31 1.5% 5%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.5% 1.1%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 1.4% 97%  
11 8% 96%  
12 11% 88%  
13 14% 77% Last Result
14 13% 63% Median
15 12% 50%  
16 11% 38%  
17 9% 26%  
18 8% 18%  
19 6% 9%  
20 2% 4%  
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.5% 1.0%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 0% 67%  
2 0% 67%  
3 0% 67%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 0% 67%  
8 0% 67%  
9 0% 67%  
10 6% 67%  
11 21% 61% Median
12 14% 40%  
13 11% 26%  
14 7% 15%  
15 4% 8%  
16 2% 4%  
17 0.9% 1.5%  
18 0.3% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Българските патриоти

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българските патриоти page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.5%  
2 0% 1.5%  
3 0% 1.5%  
4 0% 1.5%  
5 0% 1.5%  
6 0% 1.5%  
7 0% 1.5%  
8 0% 1.5%  
9 0% 1.5%  
10 0.6% 1.5%  
11 0.6% 0.9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 144 100% 135–152 134–155 132–156 127–160
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 130 129 91% 121–137 119–140 118–142 113–147
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 80 0% 73–88 71–90 69–91 65–95
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 65 0% 59–72 57–74 56–76 53–80

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.4% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 99.2%  
129 0.5% 98.8%  
130 0.3% 98%  
131 0.4% 98%  
132 0.8% 98%  
133 1.3% 97%  
134 3% 96%  
135 3% 92%  
136 4% 90%  
137 4% 86%  
138 4% 82%  
139 6% 78%  
140 7% 71%  
141 4% 65%  
142 6% 61%  
143 3% 55% Last Result, Median
144 6% 52%  
145 6% 46%  
146 9% 40%  
147 5% 31%  
148 3% 26%  
149 5% 24%  
150 5% 19%  
151 2% 13%  
152 2% 11%  
153 3% 9%  
154 1.1% 6%  
155 1.0% 5%  
156 2% 4%  
157 1.0% 2%  
158 0.5% 1.3%  
159 0.2% 0.8%  
160 0.1% 0.6%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.7%  
114 0.6% 99.4%  
115 0.5% 98.8%  
116 0.3% 98%  
117 0.4% 98%  
118 0.9% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 4% 95%  
121 4% 91% Majority
122 4% 87%  
123 4% 83%  
124 2% 79%  
125 3% 77%  
126 5% 74%  
127 10% 70%  
128 6% 60%  
129 10% 53% Median
130 4% 43% Last Result
131 4% 39%  
132 3% 36%  
133 6% 33%  
134 7% 26%  
135 6% 19%  
136 4% 14%  
137 2% 10%  
138 1.3% 8%  
139 1.1% 7%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.3% 4%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.8% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.2%  
145 0.1% 0.7%  
146 0.1% 0.7%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.8%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.1%  
67 0.4% 98.8%  
68 0.6% 98%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 1.1% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 3% 92%  
74 5% 89%  
75 4% 84%  
76 5% 80%  
77 8% 74%  
78 5% 66% Last Result
79 6% 61%  
80 8% 55% Median
81 7% 47%  
82 5% 40%  
83 6% 36%  
84 8% 30%  
85 5% 21%  
86 4% 17%  
87 3% 13%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.5% 5%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.3% 2%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.4% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.4% 99.4%  
55 0.8% 99.0%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 4% 93%  
60 4% 89%  
61 4% 85%  
62 7% 81%  
63 7% 74%  
64 8% 67%  
65 9% 59% Last Result
66 9% 50% Median
67 6% 41%  
68 5% 35%  
69 6% 30%  
70 5% 23%  
71 5% 18%  
72 4% 13%  
73 2% 9%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 0.8% 3%  
77 0.6% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.5%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations