Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | ИТН | ГЕРБ | БСПзБ | ДБ | ДПС | ИБГ-НИ | БП | ВМРО–БНД | В | ПП |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 July 2021 | General Election | 23.8% 65 |
23.2% 63 |
13.2% 36 |
12.5% 34 |
10.6% 29 |
5.0% 13 |
3.1% 0 |
3.1% 0 |
3.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 9–18% 25–46 |
20–28% 53–73 |
13–21% 34–55 |
8–15% 20–38 |
7–13% 19–36 |
2–6% 0–14 |
N/A N/A |
0–4% 0 |
1–5% 0–12 |
11–18% 27–49 |
| 10–17 October 2021 | Gallup BNR |
10–15% 26–42 |
19–26% 52–72 |
12–18% 34–50 |
9–14% 24–38 |
8–14% 23–37 |
2–6% 0–15 |
N/A N/A |
1–4% 0–10 |
2–5% 0–12 |
11–16% 29–44 |
| 5–12 October 2021 | Sova Harris Dir.bg |
12–18% 30–44 |
21–28% 53–71 |
16–23% 41–57 |
7–12% 18–30 |
7–12% 17–29 |
3–6% 0–16 |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
1–4% 0 |
12–18% 31–46 |
| 6–12 October 2021 | Exacta | 12–19% 33–50 |
20–27% 54–73 |
12–18% 33–49 |
8–13% 21–35 |
7–12% 19–32 |
2–4% 0–11 |
N/A N/A |
1–4% 0–11 |
1–3% 0 |
12–19% 33–51 |
| 6–10 October 2021 | Център за анализи и маркетинг | 10–15% 27–39 |
23–29% 59–75 |
14–19% 37–50 |
9–13% 23–35 |
10–14% 25–37 |
2–5% 0–12 |
N/A N/A |
0–2% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
11–16% 30–41 |
| 4–10 October 2021 | Алфа рисърч | 8–13% 22–36 |
20–27% 53–72 |
14–20% 37–55 |
8–14% 23–38 |
7–12% 19–32 |
2–5% 0–13 |
N/A N/A |
1–4% 0 |
2–5% 0–13 |
13–19% 35–52 |
| 14–20 September 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
12–18% 31–45 |
22–29% 54–73 |
13–19% 33–49 |
11–16% 27–40 |
9–13% 22–35 |
2–5% 0–13 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–5% 0–13 |
10–15% 24–37 |
| 11 July 2021 | General Election | 23.8% 65 |
23.2% 63 |
13.2% 36 |
12.5% 34 |
10.6% 29 |
5.0% 13 |
3.1% 0 |
3.1% 0 |
3.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the Народно събрание (95% confidence interval)
- ИТН: Има такъв народ
- ГЕРБ: Граждани за европейско развитие на България
- БСПзБ: БСП за България
- ДБ: Демократична България
- ДПС: Движение за права и свободи
- ИБГ-НИ: Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
- БП: Българските патриоти
- ВМРО–БНД: ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
- В: Възраждане
- ПП: Продължаваме промяната
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Има такъв народ | 23.8% | 13.4% | 10.5–16.2% | 9.8–17.0% | 9.2–17.6% | 8.2–18.7% |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | 23.2% | 24.1% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.4% | 20.1–28.0% | 18.9–29.2% |
| БСП за България | 13.2% | 16.4% | 14.0–19.5% | 13.4–20.4% | 12.9–21.3% | 11.9–22.7% |
| Демократична България | 12.5% | 10.9% | 8.8–13.3% | 8.3–14.1% | 7.8–14.7% | 7.0–15.9% |
| Движение за права и свободи | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.2–12.3% | 7.7–12.9% | 7.3–13.3% | 6.6–14.3% |
| Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% | 2.0–5.6% | 1.5–6.3% |
| Българските патриоти | 3.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.5% | 0.5–3.8% | 0.3–4.4% |
| Възраждане | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5–3.9% | 1.3–4.3% | 1.2–4.6% | 0.9–5.3% |
| Продължаваме промяната | 0.0% | 14.2% | 11.7–16.9% | 11.1–17.6% | 10.6–18.3% | 9.6–19.5% |
Има такъв народ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 7% | 96% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 11% | 89% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 15% | 78% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 16% | 47% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 14% | 31% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 10% | 17% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 5% | 8% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 7% | 96% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 12% | 89% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 16% | 77% | Last Result |
| 23.5–24.5% | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 24.5–25.5% | 17% | 42% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 13% | 25% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 7% | 12% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0% | 0% |
БСП за България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 4% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 13.5–14.5% | 10% | 94% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 16% | 84% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 18% | 47% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 12% | 30% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 8% | 17% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 5% | 9% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 3% | 5% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 14% | 93% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 21% | 79% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 17% | 35% | Last Result |
| 12.5–13.5% | 10% | 18% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 5% | 8% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 11% | 96% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 20% | 85% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 21% | 42% | Last Result |
| 11.5–12.5% | 14% | 21% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 6% | 8% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% |
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 39% | 88% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 34% | 49% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 12% | 15% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 3% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 26% | 97% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 43% | 71% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 24% | 28% | Last Result |
| 3.5–4.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 12% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 38% | 88% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 32% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 15% | 18% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 6% | 98% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 12% | 91% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 17% | 80% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 14.5–15.5% | 17% | 43% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 13% | 26% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 8% | 13% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Има такъв народ | 65 | 35 | 28–43 | 26–44 | 25–46 | 22–50 |
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | 63 | 64 | 57–70 | 55–72 | 53–73 | 50–76 |
| БСП за България | 36 | 43 | 37–50 | 36–53 | 34–55 | 32–57 |
| Демократична България | 34 | 29 | 23–35 | 21–37 | 20–38 | 18–41 |
| Движение за права и свободи | 29 | 27 | 22–33 | 20–34 | 19–36 | 17–38 |
| Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 13 | 0 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 | 0–16 |
| Българските патриоти | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–12 |
| Възраждане | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–14 |
| Продължаваме промяната | 0 | 38 | 30–45 | 28–47 | 27–49 | 24–52 |
Има такъв народ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 26 | 2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 2% | 95% | |
| 28 | 4% | 92% | |
| 29 | 3% | 88% | |
| 30 | 5% | 85% | |
| 31 | 4% | 79% | |
| 32 | 7% | 75% | |
| 33 | 5% | 68% | |
| 34 | 7% | 62% | |
| 35 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 36 | 8% | 49% | |
| 37 | 7% | 41% | |
| 38 | 6% | 34% | |
| 39 | 5% | 27% | |
| 40 | 5% | 22% | |
| 41 | 4% | 17% | |
| 42 | 3% | 13% | |
| 43 | 2% | 10% | |
| 44 | 4% | 8% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 54 | 2% | 97% | |
| 55 | 2% | 95% | |
| 56 | 3% | 93% | |
| 57 | 3% | 90% | |
| 58 | 4% | 87% | |
| 59 | 5% | 83% | |
| 60 | 6% | 78% | |
| 61 | 7% | 71% | |
| 62 | 8% | 64% | |
| 63 | 5% | 56% | Last Result |
| 64 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 65 | 8% | 43% | |
| 66 | 9% | 35% | |
| 67 | 5% | 26% | |
| 68 | 6% | 21% | |
| 69 | 5% | 15% | |
| 70 | 3% | 11% | |
| 71 | 2% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
БСП за България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 2% | 97% | |
| 36 | 3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 37 | 4% | 92% | |
| 38 | 5% | 88% | |
| 39 | 5% | 83% | |
| 40 | 8% | 79% | |
| 41 | 7% | 71% | |
| 42 | 7% | 64% | |
| 43 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 44 | 7% | 49% | |
| 45 | 6% | 43% | |
| 46 | 10% | 37% | |
| 47 | 6% | 27% | |
| 48 | 7% | 22% | |
| 49 | 4% | 15% | |
| 50 | 3% | 11% | |
| 51 | 2% | 8% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 20 | 2% | 98% | |
| 21 | 3% | 97% | |
| 22 | 2% | 94% | |
| 23 | 4% | 92% | |
| 24 | 4% | 88% | |
| 25 | 7% | 84% | |
| 26 | 7% | 77% | |
| 27 | 9% | 70% | |
| 28 | 7% | 61% | |
| 29 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 30 | 8% | 45% | |
| 31 | 8% | 37% | |
| 32 | 7% | 29% | |
| 33 | 5% | 22% | |
| 34 | 5% | 17% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 12% | |
| 36 | 3% | 8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98% | |
| 20 | 2% | 96% | |
| 21 | 3% | 94% | |
| 22 | 6% | 91% | |
| 23 | 7% | 85% | |
| 24 | 10% | 78% | |
| 25 | 7% | 67% | |
| 26 | 9% | 61% | |
| 27 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 28 | 7% | 44% | |
| 29 | 9% | 36% | Last Result |
| 30 | 7% | 28% | |
| 31 | 7% | 21% | |
| 32 | 4% | 14% | |
| 33 | 4% | 10% | |
| 34 | 2% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 27% | |
| 5 | 0% | 27% | |
| 6 | 0% | 27% | |
| 7 | 0% | 27% | |
| 8 | 0% | 27% | |
| 9 | 0% | 27% | |
| 10 | 2% | 27% | |
| 11 | 10% | 26% | |
| 12 | 7% | 16% | |
| 13 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Българските патриоти
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българските патриоти page.
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 8% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 11 | 3% | 7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 28 | 2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 3% | 95% | |
| 30 | 3% | 92% | |
| 31 | 4% | 89% | |
| 32 | 5% | 85% | |
| 33 | 5% | 80% | |
| 34 | 6% | 74% | |
| 35 | 6% | 69% | |
| 36 | 6% | 63% | |
| 37 | 6% | 57% | |
| 38 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 39 | 8% | 42% | |
| 40 | 5% | 35% | |
| 41 | 5% | 30% | |
| 42 | 5% | 25% | |
| 43 | 4% | 20% | |
| 44 | 3% | 16% | |
| 45 | 3% | 12% | |
| 46 | 3% | 9% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 143 | 109 | 7% | 100–119 | 97–122 | 95–124 | 90–130 |
| Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи | 130 | 106 | 0.8% | 98–114 | 95–116 | 93–118 | 88–121 |
| БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 78 | 74 | 0% | 65–83 | 62–86 | 60–88 | 57–92 |
| БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи | 65 | 71 | 0% | 63–78 | 61–80 | 59–82 | 56–85 |
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 98 | 2% | 95% | |
| 99 | 3% | 93% | |
| 100 | 2% | 90% | |
| 101 | 3% | 88% | |
| 102 | 4% | 85% | |
| 103 | 4% | 81% | |
| 104 | 5% | 77% | |
| 105 | 5% | 71% | Median |
| 106 | 4% | 67% | |
| 107 | 4% | 63% | |
| 108 | 6% | 59% | |
| 109 | 6% | 52% | |
| 110 | 5% | 47% | |
| 111 | 6% | 42% | |
| 112 | 4% | 36% | |
| 113 | 5% | 32% | |
| 114 | 3% | 27% | |
| 115 | 5% | 24% | |
| 116 | 3% | 19% | |
| 117 | 3% | 16% | |
| 118 | 3% | 13% | |
| 119 | 2% | 10% | |
| 120 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 7% | Majority |
| 122 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 94 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 95 | 2% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 94% | |
| 97 | 2% | 92% | |
| 98 | 3% | 90% | |
| 99 | 4% | 87% | |
| 100 | 4% | 84% | |
| 101 | 5% | 80% | |
| 102 | 5% | 75% | |
| 103 | 5% | 70% | |
| 104 | 7% | 64% | |
| 105 | 6% | 58% | Median |
| 106 | 6% | 51% | |
| 107 | 5% | 45% | |
| 108 | 7% | 41% | |
| 109 | 5% | 34% | |
| 110 | 5% | 29% | |
| 111 | 6% | 24% | |
| 112 | 3% | 18% | |
| 113 | 3% | 15% | |
| 114 | 3% | 12% | |
| 115 | 3% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 6% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 2% | 94% | |
| 64 | 2% | 92% | |
| 65 | 2% | 90% | |
| 66 | 3% | 88% | |
| 67 | 5% | 85% | |
| 68 | 4% | 80% | |
| 69 | 5% | 76% | |
| 70 | 5% | 71% | Median |
| 71 | 6% | 66% | |
| 72 | 5% | 60% | |
| 73 | 5% | 55% | |
| 74 | 4% | 50% | |
| 75 | 6% | 46% | |
| 76 | 4% | 40% | |
| 77 | 5% | 36% | |
| 78 | 4% | 31% | Last Result |
| 79 | 4% | 26% | |
| 80 | 4% | 22% | |
| 81 | 4% | 19% | |
| 82 | 2% | 15% | |
| 83 | 3% | 13% | |
| 84 | 3% | 10% | |
| 85 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 86 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 60 | 2% | 97% | |
| 61 | 2% | 96% | |
| 62 | 2% | 93% | |
| 63 | 3% | 91% | |
| 64 | 4% | 88% | |
| 65 | 4% | 84% | Last Result |
| 66 | 4% | 80% | |
| 67 | 6% | 76% | |
| 68 | 6% | 70% | |
| 69 | 7% | 64% | |
| 70 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 9% | 50% | |
| 72 | 6% | 42% | |
| 73 | 5% | 35% | |
| 74 | 5% | 30% | |
| 75 | 6% | 25% | |
| 76 | 3% | 20% | |
| 77 | 4% | 16% | |
| 78 | 3% | 12% | |
| 79 | 3% | 9% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 6
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 1,048,576
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 6,291,456
- Error estimate: 3.40%