Движение за права и свободи

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 10.6% (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 10.2% 8.2–12.3% 7.7–12.9% 7.3–13.3% 6.6–14.3%
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 10.8% 9.3–12.7% 8.8–13.2% 8.5–13.7% 7.8–14.6%
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 9.0% 7.6–10.7% 7.2–11.2% 6.9–11.6% 6.2–12.5%
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 9.2% 7.7–11.0% 7.3–11.6% 6.9–12.0% 6.3–13.0%
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 11.6% 10.2–13.1% 9.9–13.6% 9.6–14.0% 8.9–14.8%
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 9.3% 7.9–11.2% 7.5–11.7% 7.2–12.1% 6.5–13.0%
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 11.4% 10.2–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 10.8% 9.3–12.5% 8.9–13.0% 8.6–13.5% 7.9–14.4%
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 9.3% 7.9–11.1% 7.5–11.6% 7.1–12.1% 6.5–13.0%
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 10.5% 8.9–12.4% 8.5–12.9% 8.1–13.4% 7.4–14.3%
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 11.8% 10.1–13.9% 9.6–14.5% 9.2–15.0% 8.4–16.1%
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 12.0% 10.4–14.0% 9.9–14.5% 9.6–15.0% 8.8–16.0%
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 10.2% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–11.9% 8.5–12.3% 8.0–12.9%
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 9.8% 8.3–11.7% 7.9–12.3% 7.5–12.8% 6.9–13.7%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Движение за права и свободи.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0.4% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 3% 99.6%  
7.5–8.5% 11% 96%  
8.5–9.5% 20% 85%  
9.5–10.5% 23% 65% Median
10.5–11.5% 21% 42% Last Result
11.5–12.5% 14% 21%  
12.5–13.5% 6% 8%  
13.5–14.5% 2% 2%  
14.5–15.5% 0.2% 0.3%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 29 seats (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 27 22–33 20–34 19–36 17–38
10–17 October 2021 Gallup
BNR		 29 25–35 24–36 23–37 21–40
5–12 October 2021 Sova Harris
Dir.bg		 23 19–27 18–28 17–29 16–32
6–12 October 2021 Exacta 24 20–30 19–31 19–32 17–34
6–10 October 2021 Център за анализи и маркетинг 31 27–35 26–36 25–37 23–39
4–10 October 2021 Алфа рисърч 25 22–30 20–31 19–32 18–35
21–26 September 2021 Gallup 31 27–35 26–36 25–36 24–38
14–20 September 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 28 23–32 22–33 22–35 20–37
8–15 September 2021 Тренд 26 21–31 20–31 19–32 18–35
8–15 September 2021 Алфа рисърч 28 23–33 22–34 21–35 19–38
2–10 September 2021 Gallup 32 28–39 26–40 25–41 23–45
13–22 August 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 30 25–35 24–36 23–37 22–40
23–30 July 2021 Тренд
24 часа		 29 25–32 24–33 23–34 22–36
21–28 July 2021 Маркет ЛИНКС
bTV		 25 21–30 20–31 19–32 17–35

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Движение за права и свободи.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.5% 99.7%  
18 1.0% 99.2%  
19 2% 98%  
20 2% 96%  
21 3% 94%  
22 6% 91%  
23 7% 85%  
24 10% 78%  
25 7% 67%  
26 9% 61%  
27 8% 52% Median
28 7% 44%  
29 9% 36% Last Result
30 7% 28%  
31 7% 21%  
32 4% 14%  
33 4% 10%  
34 2% 7%  
35 2% 5%  
36 1.2% 3%  
37 0.7% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%