БСП за България

Voting Intentions

Last result: 13.2% (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Period	Polling firm/Commissioner(s)	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
N/A	Poll Average	16.4%	14.0–19.5%	13.4–20.4%	12.9–21.3%	11.9–22.7%
10–17 October 2021	Gallup BNR	15.2%	13.4–17.3%	12.8–17.9%	12.4–18.4%	11.6–19.5%
5–12 October 2021	Sova Harris Dir.bg	19.4%	17.3–21.6%	16.8–22.3%	16.3–22.8%	15.4–24.0%
6–12 October 2021	Exacta	14.9%	13.1–17.2%	12.5–17.8%	12.1–18.3%	11.2–19.4%
6–10 October 2021	Център за анализи и маркетинг	16.6%	15.0–18.4%	14.6–18.9%	14.2–19.4%	13.5–20.2%
4–10 October 2021	Алфа рисърч	16.8%	14.9–19.1%	14.3–19.7%	13.9–20.2%	13.0–21.3%
21–26 September 2021	Gallup	13.4%	12.1–14.9%	11.8–15.3%	11.5–15.7%	10.9–16.4%
14–20 September 2021	Маркет ЛИНКС bTV	16.0%	14.2–18.0%	13.7–18.6%	13.3–19.1%	12.5–20.1%
8–15 September 2021	Тренд	16.6%	14.7–18.8%	14.1–19.4%	13.7–20.0%	12.8–21.1%
8–15 September 2021	Алфа рисърч	18.1%	16.0–20.4%	15.5–21.0%	15.0–21.6%	14.1–22.7%
2–10 September 2021	Gallup	16.0%	14.0–18.4%	13.5–19.0%	13.0–19.6%	12.1–20.8%
13–22 August 2021	Маркет ЛИНКС bTV	17.1%	15.2–19.3%	14.7–20.0%	14.2–20.5%	13.3–21.6%
23–30 July 2021	Тренд 24 часа	14.5%	13.2–16.0%	12.8–16.5%	12.5–16.8%	11.8–17.6%
21–28 July 2021	Маркет ЛИНКС bTV	16.1%	14.2–18.4%	13.7–19.0%	13.2–19.6%	12.3–20.7%

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for БСП за България.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
9.5–10.5%	0%	100%
10.5–11.5%	0.2%	100%
11.5–12.5%	1.2%	99.8%
12.5–13.5%	4%	98.5%	Last Result
13.5–14.5%	10%	94%
14.5–15.5%	16%	84%
15.5–16.5%	20%	67%	Median
16.5–17.5%	18%	47%
17.5–18.5%	12%	30%
18.5–19.5%	8%	17%
19.5–20.5%	5%	9%
20.5–21.5%	3%	5%
21.5–22.5%	1.3%	2%
22.5–23.5%	0.4%	0.6%
23.5–24.5%	0.1%	0.2%
24.5–25.5%	0%	0%

Last result: 36 seats (General Election of 11 July 2021)

Period	Polling firm/Commissioner(s)	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
N/A	Poll Average	43	37–50	36–53	34–55	32–57
10–17 October 2021	Gallup BNR	41	36–47	35–49	34–50	32–53
5–12 October 2021	Sova Harris Dir.bg	48	43–55	42–56	41–57	39–60
6–12 October 2021	Exacta	40	35–46	34–48	33–49	30–52
6–10 October 2021	Център за анализи и маркетинг	44	39–49	39–49	37–50	35–53
4–10 October 2021	Алфа рисърч	46	40–51	39–54	37–55	35–57
21–26 September 2021	Gallup	36	32–41	31–42	31–42	29–44
14–20 September 2021	Маркет ЛИНКС bTV	41	36–46	34–47	33–49	31–51
8–15 September 2021	Тренд	46	40–52	38–53	37–55	34–58
8–15 September 2021	Алфа рисърч	48	42–54	40–56	39–57	37–60
2–10 September 2021	Gallup	44	38–50	37–53	35–54	33–57
13–22 August 2021	Маркет ЛИНКС bTV	43	37–48	36–49	35–51	33–54
23–30 July 2021	Тренд 24 часа	40	36–45	35–46	34–47	33–49
21–28 July 2021	Маркет ЛИНКС bTV	41	36–46	34–48	33–49	31–53

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for БСП за България.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
29	0.1%	100%
30	0.1%	99.9%
31	0.2%	99.8%
32	0.3%	99.6%
33	0.9%	99.3%
34	1.4%	98%
35	2%	97%
36	3%	95%	Last Result
37	4%	92%
38	5%	88%
39	5%	83%
40	8%	79%
41	7%	71%
42	7%	64%
43	8%	58%	Median
44	7%	49%
45	6%	43%
46	10%	37%
47	6%	27%
48	7%	22%
49	4%	15%
50	3%	11%
51	2%	8%
52	1.2%	6%
53	0.9%	5%
54	1.4%	4%
55	1.3%	3%
56	0.9%	1.5%
57	0.2%	0.6%
58	0.1%	0.4%
59	0.1%	0.3%
60	0.1%	0.2%
61	0.1%	0.1%
62	0%	0%