Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 13–22 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 23.7% 21.5–26.1% 20.8–26.8% 20.3–27.4% 19.3–28.6%
Демократична България 12.5% 18.0% 16.1–20.3% 15.5–20.9% 15.0–21.5% 14.1–22.6%
БСП за България 13.2% 17.1% 15.2–19.3% 14.7–20.0% 14.2–20.5% 13.3–21.6%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 17.1% 15.2–19.3% 14.7–20.0% 14.2–20.5% 13.3–21.6%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 12.0% 10.4–14.0% 9.9–14.5% 9.6–15.0% 8.8–16.0%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 4.9% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.7% 3.4–7.1% 3.0–7.8%
Възраждане 3.0% 4.7% 3.7–6.1% 3.5–6.5% 3.2–6.9% 2.8–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 58 53–65 51–67 50–68 47–72
Демократична България 34 45 39–51 38–52 37–53 35–56
БСП за България 36 43 37–48 36–49 35–51 33–54
Има такъв народ 65 42 38–48 36–49 35–51 33–54
Движение за права и свободи 29 30 25–35 24–36 23–37 22–40
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 12 0–16 0–16 0–17 0–19
Възраждане 0 12 0–15 0–16 0–17 0–19

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.4%  
49 0.9% 98.8%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 5% 90%  
54 5% 86%  
55 7% 81%  
56 7% 73%  
57 9% 66%  
58 8% 57% Median
59 9% 49%  
60 7% 40%  
61 7% 33%  
62 7% 26%  
63 5% 19% Last Result
64 3% 14%  
65 3% 11%  
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.0% 3%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.3%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
35 0.5% 99.6%  
36 1.1% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 3% 96%  
39 3% 93%  
40 5% 90%  
41 8% 85%  
42 10% 76%  
43 7% 67%  
44 10% 60%  
45 9% 50% Median
46 8% 41%  
47 7% 33%  
48 8% 26%  
49 4% 18%  
50 3% 13%  
51 4% 10%  
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.5%  
56 0.6% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 1.1% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96% Last Result
37 4% 93%  
38 6% 89%  
39 7% 83%  
40 8% 76%  
41 10% 68%  
42 8% 59%  
43 10% 50% Median
44 9% 40%  
45 9% 31%  
46 6% 23%  
47 4% 17%  
48 4% 12%  
49 3% 8%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.4% 1.1%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.5%  
34 1.0% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 2% 96%  
37 4% 94%  
38 5% 90%  
39 7% 85%  
40 9% 78%  
41 11% 69%  
42 11% 58% Median
43 7% 47%  
44 8% 40%  
45 8% 31%  
46 8% 23%  
47 4% 15%  
48 3% 11%  
49 2% 7%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.3% 3%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.1%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.7% 99.6%  
23 1.5% 98.9%  
24 3% 97%  
25 5% 95%  
26 5% 89%  
27 10% 84%  
28 9% 74%  
29 12% 66% Last Result
30 11% 53% Median
31 11% 42%  
32 10% 32%  
33 7% 22%  
34 5% 15%  
35 4% 10%  
36 2% 6%  
37 2% 4%  
38 0.8% 2%  
39 0.5% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 0% 88%  
8 0% 88%  
9 0% 88%  
10 8% 88%  
11 14% 79%  
12 18% 65% Median
13 15% 47% Last Result
14 14% 32%  
15 8% 18%  
16 6% 10%  
17 3% 5%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0% 83%  
8 0% 83%  
9 0% 83%  
10 10% 83%  
11 18% 73%  
12 16% 55% Median
13 14% 39%  
14 9% 24%  
15 8% 15%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.8% 1.4%  
19 0.3% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 127 83% 118–133 116–136 114–139 110–143
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 115 15% 107–122 105–125 104–127 101–132
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 84 0% 76–91 74–93 71–95 67–99
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 72 0% 66–79 64–81 63–83 60–87

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.7%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.2% 99.5%  
112 0.5% 99.3%  
113 0.5% 98.8%  
114 1.2% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 2% 96%  
117 2% 94%  
118 2% 92%  
119 2% 89%  
120 3% 87%  
121 4% 83% Majority
122 5% 79%  
123 6% 75%  
124 6% 69%  
125 5% 63%  
126 6% 58%  
127 5% 52% Median
128 7% 46%  
129 9% 39%  
130 8% 31%  
131 6% 23%  
132 4% 17%  
133 4% 13%  
134 2% 9%  
135 1.4% 7%  
136 1.1% 5%  
137 0.9% 4%  
138 0.7% 3%  
139 0.5% 3%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.3% 1.0%  
143 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.4% 99.6%  
102 0.5% 99.2%  
103 0.9% 98.7%  
104 1.3% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 3% 94%  
107 3% 91%  
108 3% 89%  
109 3% 86%  
110 5% 83%  
111 3% 78%  
112 6% 74%  
113 7% 68%  
114 6% 61%  
115 10% 55% Median
116 8% 46%  
117 7% 38%  
118 5% 31%  
119 5% 25%  
120 5% 20%  
121 3% 15% Majority
122 2% 12%  
123 3% 10%  
124 1.4% 7%  
125 1.1% 5%  
126 1.0% 4%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.8% 2%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.2% Last Result
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.4% 99.4%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 0.5% 98.6%  
71 0.5% 98%  
72 0.8% 97%  
73 2% 97%  
74 1.5% 95%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 91%  
77 3% 88%  
78 3% 85% Last Result
79 5% 82%  
80 5% 77%  
81 6% 72%  
82 5% 66%  
83 7% 61%  
84 5% 54%  
85 8% 49% Median
86 8% 41%  
87 6% 34%  
88 6% 28%  
89 6% 21%  
90 5% 16%  
91 3% 11%  
92 2% 8%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.3% 4%  
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.5%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.7% 99.3%  
62 0.7% 98.6%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 3% 94% Last Result
66 4% 92%  
67 5% 88%  
68 6% 83%  
69 6% 78%  
70 8% 71%  
71 6% 64%  
72 8% 58%  
73 7% 49% Median
74 8% 42%  
75 6% 33%  
76 6% 27%  
77 5% 21%  
78 5% 16%  
79 4% 12%  
80 2% 8%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.2% 4%  
83 0.9% 3%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.3%  
86 0.3% 0.9%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations