Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 8–15 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 23.2% 21.0–25.7% 20.3–26.4% 19.8–27.0% 18.7–28.2%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 18.6% 16.6–21.0% 16.0–21.6% 15.5–22.2% 14.6–23.4%
БСП за България 13.2% 18.1% 16.0–20.4% 15.5–21.0% 15.0–21.6% 14.1–22.7%
Демократична България 12.5% 14.4% 12.6–16.6% 12.1–17.2% 11.7–17.7% 10.9–18.8%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 10.5% 8.9–12.4% 8.5–12.9% 8.1–13.4% 7.4–14.3%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 4.6% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.4% 3.1–6.7% 2.7–7.4%
Възраждане 3.0% 3.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.5% 2.5–5.8% 2.1–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 61 54–68 53–70 51–72 48–75
Има такъв народ 65 49 43–55 42–57 40–59 38–62
БСП за България 36 48 42–54 40–56 39–57 37–60
Демократична България 34 38 33–44 32–45 30–47 28–50
Движение за права и свободи 29 28 23–33 22–34 21–35 19–38
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 12 0–16 0–17 0–18 0–19
Възраждане 0 0 0–13 0–14 0–15 0–17

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.5%  
50 0.6% 99.1%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 1.4% 97%  
53 3% 96%  
54 4% 93%  
55 3% 90%  
56 5% 86%  
57 6% 81%  
58 7% 75%  
59 8% 69%  
60 6% 61%  
61 8% 54% Median
62 8% 46%  
63 7% 39% Last Result
64 5% 32%  
65 6% 27%  
66 5% 21%  
67 5% 16%  
68 3% 11%  
69 2% 8%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 0.7% 99.2%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 3% 95%  
43 3% 93%  
44 5% 90%  
45 7% 84%  
46 7% 77%  
47 7% 70%  
48 9% 64%  
49 8% 54% Median
50 8% 46%  
51 9% 38%  
52 5% 29%  
53 5% 24%  
54 5% 19%  
55 4% 13%  
56 3% 10%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.8% 3%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
37 0.6% 99.6%  
38 0.8% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 3% 94%  
42 3% 91%  
43 6% 87%  
44 5% 81%  
45 7% 76%  
46 7% 69%  
47 9% 62%  
48 9% 53% Median
49 11% 44%  
50 7% 33%  
51 6% 26%  
52 5% 20%  
53 4% 15%  
54 3% 11%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 6%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.3%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 0.7% 99.4%  
30 1.2% 98.7%  
31 2% 97%  
32 3% 95%  
33 4% 92%  
34 6% 88% Last Result
35 7% 82%  
36 9% 75%  
37 9% 65%  
38 8% 56% Median
39 10% 48%  
40 9% 38%  
41 7% 29%  
42 5% 22%  
43 6% 17%  
44 4% 11%  
45 2% 7%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.4% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.5% 99.8%  
20 0.7% 99.3%  
21 1.4% 98.7%  
22 3% 97%  
23 5% 95%  
24 7% 89%  
25 9% 82%  
26 14% 73%  
27 9% 60%  
28 12% 51% Median
29 9% 39% Last Result
30 7% 30%  
31 7% 22%  
32 4% 15%  
33 4% 11%  
34 3% 7%  
35 2% 5%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.5% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.7%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 0% 77%  
8 0% 77%  
9 0% 77%  
10 1.0% 77%  
11 14% 76%  
12 16% 62% Median
13 17% 46% Last Result
14 11% 29%  
15 8% 19%  
16 6% 11%  
17 2% 5%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 1.0%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 0% 45%  
8 0% 45%  
9 0% 45%  
10 3% 45%  
11 15% 42%  
12 11% 27%  
13 8% 16%  
14 4% 8%  
15 2% 4%  
16 0.9% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 135 98% 126–143 124–146 121–148 117–152
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 130 125 73% 116–134 114–137 112–139 109–143
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 86 0% 77–94 74–97 72–98 68–102
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 75 0% 69–83 67–85 65–87 62–91

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.6%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.6% 99.1%  
120 0.5% 98.5%  
121 0.6% 98% Majority
122 0.9% 97%  
123 1.3% 97%  
124 2% 95%  
125 2% 93%  
126 2% 92%  
127 4% 89%  
128 3% 86%  
129 4% 83%  
130 5% 79%  
131 4% 73%  
132 5% 70%  
133 4% 65%  
134 7% 61%  
135 5% 54%  
136 5% 49%  
137 7% 43% Median
138 6% 37%  
139 5% 31%  
140 5% 26%  
141 5% 21%  
142 3% 16%  
143 3% 13% Last Result
144 2% 10%  
145 2% 8%  
146 2% 6%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.4%  
151 0.4% 0.9%  
152 0.3% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.4% 99.5%  
110 0.9% 99.1%  
111 0.5% 98%  
112 0.8% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 1.5% 95%  
115 2% 94%  
116 2% 92%  
117 4% 90%  
118 4% 86%  
119 5% 82%  
120 4% 77%  
121 5% 73% Majority
122 6% 69%  
123 7% 62%  
124 5% 55%  
125 6% 50% Median
126 4% 45%  
127 9% 40%  
128 5% 32%  
129 4% 27%  
130 3% 23% Last Result
131 5% 20%  
132 2% 15%  
133 2% 13%  
134 2% 11%  
135 2% 9%  
136 1.3% 7%  
137 2% 6%  
138 0.7% 4%  
139 1.0% 3%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.6% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.2%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.6% 99.0%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 1.2% 96%  
74 1.1% 95%  
75 2% 94%  
76 2% 92%  
77 3% 91%  
78 2% 88% Last Result
79 3% 86%  
80 4% 83%  
81 4% 79%  
82 4% 75%  
83 6% 71%  
84 6% 65%  
85 6% 59%  
86 6% 53%  
87 5% 48%  
88 7% 43% Median
89 6% 36%  
90 7% 30%  
91 5% 23%  
92 3% 18%  
93 3% 15%  
94 2% 12%  
95 2% 9%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.4%  
101 0.3% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.4% 99.3%  
64 0.7% 98.8%  
65 1.2% 98% Last Result
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 4% 90%  
70 4% 87%  
71 5% 83%  
72 8% 77%  
73 7% 70%  
74 7% 62%  
75 6% 55%  
76 7% 49% Median
77 8% 42%  
78 6% 34%  
79 5% 29%  
80 4% 23%  
81 4% 19%  
82 3% 15%  
83 3% 12%  
84 2% 9%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.4% 5%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.4% 2%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations