Opinion Poll by Маркет ЛИНКС for bTV, 14–20 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 25.0% 22.8–27.3% 22.2–28.0% 21.7–28.5% 20.7–29.7%
БСП за България 13.2% 16.0% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6% 13.3–19.1% 12.5–20.1%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 14.8% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.4% 12.2–17.9% 11.5–18.9%
Демократична България 12.5% 13.1% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.5% 10.6–16.0% 9.9–16.9%
Продължаваме промяната 0.0% 11.9% 10.4–13.7% 9.9–14.3% 9.6–14.7% 8.9–15.6%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 10.8% 9.3–12.5% 8.9–13.0% 8.6–13.5% 7.9–14.4%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 3.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.4–5.4% 2.0–6.0%
Възраждане 3.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 1.9–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 63 57–70 55–72 54–73 52–76
БСП за България 36 41 36–46 34–47 33–49 31–51
Има такъв народ 65 38 33–43 32–44 31–45 29–48
Демократична България 34 33 29–38 28–39 27–40 25–43
Продължаваме промяната 0 30 26–35 25–36 24–37 22–40
Движение за права и свободи 29 28 23–32 22–33 22–35 20–37
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 0 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–15
Възраждане 0 0 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.7%  
52 0.4% 99.5%  
53 0.9% 99.1%  
54 1.3% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 4% 92%  
58 4% 88%  
59 6% 84%  
60 7% 78%  
61 7% 71%  
62 7% 64%  
63 7% 57% Last Result, Median
64 9% 50%  
65 8% 41%  
66 8% 33%  
67 5% 26%  
68 4% 21%  
69 4% 17%  
70 5% 13%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.8% 99.3%  
33 1.4% 98%  
34 3% 97%  
35 3% 94%  
36 6% 91% Last Result
37 8% 85%  
38 9% 77%  
39 8% 68%  
40 8% 61%  
41 10% 53% Median
42 9% 43%  
43 7% 34%  
44 6% 26%  
45 7% 20%  
46 5% 13%  
47 4% 8%  
48 1.4% 5%  
49 1.2% 3%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.7% 99.5%  
30 1.2% 98.9%  
31 1.5% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 4% 92%  
34 7% 88%  
35 8% 80%  
36 10% 72%  
37 12% 62%  
38 8% 50% Median
39 8% 43%  
40 9% 35%  
41 9% 26%  
42 6% 17%  
43 4% 12%  
44 4% 8%  
45 1.3% 4%  
46 0.7% 2%  
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.6%  
26 1.3% 99.0%  
27 2% 98%  
28 5% 96%  
29 6% 91%  
30 7% 84%  
31 7% 77%  
32 12% 70%  
33 10% 58% Median
34 10% 49% Last Result
35 10% 38%  
36 10% 28%  
37 5% 18%  
38 5% 13%  
39 4% 8%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.7% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 1.2% 99.4%  
24 2% 98%  
25 3% 96%  
26 6% 94%  
27 6% 88%  
28 9% 82%  
29 13% 72%  
30 10% 60% Median
31 13% 50%  
32 10% 37%  
33 6% 27%  
34 8% 21%  
35 4% 13%  
36 5% 9%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 1.1%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.6%  
21 1.3% 99.0%  
22 3% 98%  
23 6% 95%  
24 7% 89%  
25 7% 82%  
26 12% 75%  
27 12% 62%  
28 10% 51% Median
29 10% 41% Last Result
30 10% 32%  
31 10% 22%  
32 4% 12%  
33 3% 8%  
34 2% 5%  
35 1.1% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.5%  
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Median
1 0% 31%  
2 0% 31%  
3 0% 31%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 0% 31%  
8 0% 31%  
9 0% 31%  
10 7% 31%  
11 12% 25%  
12 8% 13%  
13 3% 5% Last Result
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 0% 24%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0% 24%  
7 0% 24%  
8 0% 24%  
9 0% 24%  
10 8% 24%  
11 6% 16%  
12 8% 10%  
13 1.0% 3%  
14 1.3% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 110 5% 102–118 100–120 98–122 94–126
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 106 0.8% 98–114 97–116 95–118 91–121
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 72 0% 65–80 63–82 61–85 58–88
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 68 0% 62–75 60–77 59–78 56–81

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.5%  
96 0.6% 99.1%  
97 0.4% 98.5%  
98 1.2% 98%  
99 1.1% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 3% 91%  
103 2% 89%  
104 5% 86%  
105 7% 81%  
106 7% 74%  
107 4% 68% Median
108 4% 64%  
109 5% 60%  
110 6% 54%  
111 9% 49%  
112 6% 40%  
113 5% 34%  
114 4% 29%  
115 6% 25%  
116 4% 19%  
117 3% 15%  
118 3% 12%  
119 3% 9%  
120 1.3% 6%  
121 1.5% 5% Majority
122 1.1% 3%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.5% 1.4%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.3% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.5% 99.4%  
93 0.4% 98.9%  
94 0.6% 98.5%  
95 0.9% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 3% 93%  
99 2% 90%  
100 3% 88%  
101 6% 85%  
102 5% 78%  
103 4% 73%  
104 6% 69%  
105 8% 63%  
106 8% 55%  
107 6% 47% Median
108 5% 41%  
109 4% 37%  
110 5% 32%  
111 8% 28%  
112 4% 19%  
113 3% 15%  
114 2% 12%  
115 4% 10%  
116 1.5% 6%  
117 2% 4%  
118 0.5% 3%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.7% 1.5%  
121 0.6% 0.8% Majority
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.7% 99.5%  
60 0.5% 98.8%  
61 0.9% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 3% 93%  
65 3% 90%  
66 4% 87%  
67 6% 83%  
68 6% 77%  
69 5% 70% Median
70 7% 65%  
71 8% 59%  
72 6% 51%  
73 6% 45%  
74 5% 40%  
75 6% 35%  
76 7% 29%  
77 3% 22%  
78 3% 19% Last Result
79 3% 16%  
80 3% 13%  
81 3% 10%  
82 2% 7%  
83 1.4% 5%  
84 0.8% 3%  
85 1.0% 3%  
86 0.5% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.5% 99.3%  
58 0.6% 98.8%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 94%  
62 3% 92%  
63 4% 89%  
64 6% 84%  
65 6% 78% Last Result
66 6% 72%  
67 8% 66%  
68 9% 58%  
69 6% 49% Median
70 8% 43%  
71 8% 35%  
72 6% 27%  
73 4% 21%  
74 4% 16%  
75 3% 12%  
76 4% 9%  
77 1.3% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.3%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations