Poll Average

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Summary

The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.

Period	Polling firm/Commissioner(s)	HDZ	HSS	SDP	HNS	IDS	Živi zid	P	BM 365	Most	NLMK	Hrast	HS	DPMŠ	AK	NHR	START	HKS	GLAS	Mož	Centar	RF	Fokus	KH	HSU	SD	OiP	AP	HSLS
26 May 2019	General Election	41.4% 4	41.4% 1	29.9% 2	29.9% 1	29.9% 1	0.5% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0
N/A	Poll Average	28–34% 4–5	N/A N/A	22–27% 3–4	N/A N/A	2–3% 0	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	4–7% 0–1	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	5–8% 0–1	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	6–9% 0–1	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A
4 May 2024	Promocija Plus	28–34% 4–5	N/A N/A	22–27% 3–4	N/A N/A	2–3% 0	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	4–7% 0–1	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	5–8% 0–1	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	6–9% 0–1	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A	N/A N/A
26 May 2019	General Election	41.4% 4	41.4% 1	29.9% 2	29.9% 1	29.9% 1	0.5% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0	0.0% 0

Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.

Legend:

• Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
• Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
• HDZ: Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)
• HSS: Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE)
• SDP: Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)
• HNS: Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE)
• IDS: Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)
• Živi zid: Živi zid (NI)
• P: Pametno (RE)
• BM 365: Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti (*)
• Most: Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)
• NLMK: Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI)
• Hrast: Hrvatski rast (ECR)
• HS: Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)
• DPMŠ: Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID)
• AK: Amsterdamska koalicija (RE)
• NHR: Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID)
• START: Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*)
• HKS: Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR)
• GLAS: Građansko-liberalni savez (RE)
• Mož: Možemo! (Greens/EFA)
• Centar: Centar (RE)
• RF: Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)
• Fokus: Fokus na bitno (*)
• KH: Ključ Hrvatske (NI)
• HSU: Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)
• SD: Socijaldemokrati (S&D)
• OiP: Odlučnost i Pravednost (*)
• AP: Akcija za promjene (*)
• HSLS: Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE)
• N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
• N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet

Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)	41.4%	30.6%	28.8–32.5%	28.3–33.1%	27.8–33.5%	27.0–34.5%
Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE)	41.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)	29.9%	24.2%	22.5–26.0%	22.1–26.5%	21.7–27.0%	20.9–27.8%
Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE)	29.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)	29.9%	2.4%	1.8–3.0%	1.7–3.2%	1.5–3.4%	1.3–3.8%
Živi zid (NI)	0.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Pametno (RE)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti (*)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)	0.0%	5.5%	4.6–6.4%	4.4–6.7%	4.2–7.0%	3.8–7.5%
Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatski rast (ECR)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID)	0.0%	6.8%	5.8–7.8%	5.5–8.1%	5.3–8.4%	4.9–9.0%
Amsterdamska koalicija (RE)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Građansko-liberalni savez (RE)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)	0.0%	7.6%	6.5–8.7%	6.3–9.0%	6.0–9.3%	5.6–9.9%
Centar (RE)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Fokus na bitno (*)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ključ Hrvatske (NI)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Socijaldemokrati (S&D)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Odlučnost i Pravednost (*)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Akcija za promjene (*)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE)	0.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
24.5–25.5%	0%	100%
25.5–26.5%	0.2%	100%
26.5–27.5%	1.4%	99.8%
27.5–28.5%	6%	98%
28.5–29.5%	16%	93%
29.5–30.5%	25%	77%
30.5–31.5%	26%	52%	Median
31.5–32.5%	17%	26%
32.5–33.5%	7%	9%
33.5–34.5%	2%	2%
34.5–35.5%	0.4%	0.4%
35.5–36.5%	0%	0.1%
36.5–37.5%	0%	0%
37.5–38.5%	0%	0%
38.5–39.5%	0%	0%
39.5–40.5%	0%	0%
40.5–41.5%	0%	0%	Last Result

Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) page.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0.0–0.5%	0%	100%
0.5–1.5%	3%	100%
1.5–2.5%	62%	97%	Median
2.5–3.5%	34%	36%
3.5–4.5%	2%	2%
4.5–5.5%	0%	0%
5.5–6.5%	0%	0%
6.5–7.5%	0%	0%
7.5–8.5%	0%	0%
8.5–9.5%	0%	0%
9.5–10.5%	0%	0%
10.5–11.5%	0%	0%
11.5–12.5%	0%	0%
12.5–13.5%	0%	0%
13.5–14.5%	0%	0%
14.5–15.5%	0%	0%
15.5–16.5%	0%	0%
16.5–17.5%	0%	0%
17.5–18.5%	0%	0%
18.5–19.5%	0%	0%
19.5–20.5%	0%	0%
20.5–21.5%	0%	0%
21.5–22.5%	0%	0%
22.5–23.5%	0%	0%
23.5–24.5%	0%	0%
24.5–25.5%	0%	0%
25.5–26.5%	0%	0%
26.5–27.5%	0%	0%
27.5–28.5%	0%	0%
28.5–29.5%	0%	0%
29.5–30.5%	0%	0%	Last Result

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
18.5–19.5%	0%	100%
19.5–20.5%	0.2%	100%
20.5–21.5%	2%	99.8%
21.5–22.5%	8%	98%
22.5–23.5%	20%	90%
23.5–24.5%	29%	70%	Median
24.5–25.5%	24%	41%
25.5–26.5%	12%	17%
26.5–27.5%	4%	5%
27.5–28.5%	0.7%	0.9%
28.5–29.5%	0.1%	0.1%
29.5–30.5%	0%	0%	Last Result

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0.0–0.5%	0%	100%	Last Result
0.5–1.5%	0%	100%
1.5–2.5%	0%	100%
2.5–3.5%	0%	100%
3.5–4.5%	0%	100%
4.5–5.5%	0.4%	100%
5.5–6.5%	10%	99.6%
6.5–7.5%	39%	90%
7.5–8.5%	38%	51%	Median
8.5–9.5%	11%	13%
9.5–10.5%	1.2%	1.3%
10.5–11.5%	0.1%	0.1%
11.5–12.5%	0%	0%

Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0.0–0.5%	0%	100%	Last Result
0.5–1.5%	0%	100%
1.5–2.5%	0%	100%
2.5–3.5%	0.1%	100%
3.5–4.5%	9%	99.9%
4.5–5.5%	46%	91%	Median
5.5–6.5%	38%	45%
6.5–7.5%	7%	7%
7.5–8.5%	0.4%	0.4%
8.5–9.5%	0%	0%

Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID) page.

Voting Intentions	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0.0–0.5%	0%	100%	Last Result
0.5–1.5%	0%	100%
1.5–2.5%	0%	100%
2.5–3.5%	0%	100%
3.5–4.5%	0.1%	100%
4.5–5.5%	5%	99.9%
5.5–6.5%	35%	95%
6.5–7.5%	43%	60%	Median
7.5–8.5%	15%	17%
8.5–9.5%	2%	2%
9.5–10.5%	0.1%	0.1%
10.5–11.5%	0%	0%

Seats

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)	4	4	4–5	4–5	4–5	4–5
Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE)	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)	2	3	3–4	3–4	3–4	3–4
Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE)	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)	1	0	0	0	0	0
Živi zid (NI)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Pametno (RE)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti (*)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)	0	0	0	0–1	0–1	0–1
Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatski rast (ECR)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID)	0	1	0–1	0–1	0–1	0–1
Amsterdamska koalicija (RE)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Građansko-liberalni savez (RE)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)	0	1	1	0–1	0–1	0–1
Centar (RE)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Fokus na bitno (*)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ključ Hrvatske (NI)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Socijaldemokrati (S&D)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Odlučnost i Pravednost (*)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Akcija za promjene (*)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE)	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
3	0.3%	100%
4	84%	99.7%	Last Result, Median
5	15%	15%
6	0%	0%

Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE) page.

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
2	0.1%	100%	Last Result
3	86%	99.9%	Median
4	14%	14%
5	0%	0%

Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) page.

Istarski demokratski sabor (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Istarski demokratski sabor (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Median
1	0%	0%	Last Result

Živi zid (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Živi zid (NI) page.

Pametno (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pametno (RE) page.

Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti (*) page.

Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Most nezavisnih lista (ECR) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	93%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	7%	7%
2	0%	0%

Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI) page.

Hrvatski rast (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatski rast (ECR) page.

Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) page.

Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	33%	100%	Last Result
1	67%	67%	Median
2	0%	0%

Amsterdamska koalicija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Amsterdamska koalicija (RE) page.

Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID) page.

Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti (*) page.

Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR) page.

Građansko-liberalni savez (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Građansko-liberalni savez (RE) page.

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Možemo! (Greens/EFA) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	8%	100%	Last Result
1	92%	92%	Median
2	0%	0%

Centar (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centar (RE) page.

Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL) page.

Fokus na bitno (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus na bitno (*) page.

Ključ Hrvatske (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ključ Hrvatske (NI) page.

Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika (*) page.

Socijaldemokrati (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socijaldemokrati (S&D) page.

Odlučnost i Pravednost (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Odlučnost i Pravednost (*) page.

Akcija za promjene (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Akcija za promjene (*) page.

Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE) page.

Coalitions

Confidence Intervals

Coalition	Last Result	Median	Majority?	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)	4	4	0%	4–5	4–5	4–5	4–5
Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) – Socijaldemokrati (S&D)	2	3	0%	3–4	3–4	3–4	3–4
Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID) – Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID)	0	1	0%	0–1	0–1	0–1	0–1
Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR) – Hrvatski rast (ECR) – Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) – Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)	0	0	0%	0	0–1	0–1	0–1
Možemo! (Greens/EFA)	0	1	0%	1	0–1	0–1	0–1
Akcija za promjene () – Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti () – Fokus na bitno () – Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika () – Odlučnost i Pravednost () – Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti ()	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0
Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE) – Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) – Amsterdamska koalicija (RE) – Centar (RE) – Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE) – Pametno (RE)	2	0	0%	0	0	0	0
Živi zid (NI) – Ključ Hrvatske (NI) – Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI)	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0
Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0

Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (EPP)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
3	0.3%	100%
4	84%	99.7%	Last Result, Median
5	15%	15%
6	0%	0%

Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (S&D) – Socijaldemokrati (S&D)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
2	0.1%	100%	Last Result
3	86%	99.9%	Median
4	14%	14%
5	0%	0%

Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore (ID) – Neovisni za Hrvatsku (ID)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	33%	100%	Last Result
1	67%	67%	Median
2	0%	0%

Hrvatska konzervativna stranka (ECR) – Hrvatski rast (ECR) – Hrvatski suverenisti (ECR) – Most nezavisnih lista (ECR)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	93%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	7%	7%
2	0%	0%

Možemo! (Greens/EFA)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	8%	100%	Last Result
1	92%	92%	Median
2	0%	0%

Akcija za promjene () – Bandić Milan 365–Stranka rada i solidarnosti () – Fokus na bitno () – Hrvatska stranka umirovljenika () – Odlučnost i Pravednost () – Stranka antikorupcije, razvoja i transparentnosti ()

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Last Result, Median

Hrvatska seljačka stranka (RE) – Hrvatska narodna stranka–liberalni demokrati (RE) – Amsterdamska koalicija (RE) – Centar (RE) – Hrvatska socijalno-liberalna stranka (RE) – Pametno (RE)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Median
1	0%	0%
2	0%	0%	Last Result

Živi zid (NI) – Ključ Hrvatske (NI) – Nezavisna lista Mislava Kolakušića (NI)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Last Result, Median

Radnička fronta (GUE/NGL)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Last Result, Median

Technical Information

• Number of polls included in this average: 1
• Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
• Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 2,097,152
• Error estimate: 0.34%