Opinion Poll by Verian for Berlingske, 24 March 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialdemokraterne (S&D) |
19.1% |
20.2% |
19.0–21.4% |
18.7–21.7% |
18.4–22.0% |
17.9–22.6% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Greens/EFA) |
10.9% |
14.5% |
13.5–15.6% |
13.3–15.9% |
13.0–16.1% |
12.6–16.7% |
Liberal Alliance (EPP) |
2.9% |
13.3% |
12.4–14.3% |
12.1–14.6% |
11.9–14.9% |
11.4–15.4% |
Venstre (RE) |
16.7% |
10.0% |
9.2–10.9% |
8.9–11.2% |
8.7–11.4% |
8.4–11.8% |
Danmarksdemokraterne (ECR) |
0.0% |
9.6% |
8.8–10.5% |
8.6–10.7% |
8.4–11.0% |
8.0–11.4% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti (EPP) |
9.1% |
7.9% |
7.1–8.7% |
6.9–8.9% |
6.8–9.1% |
6.4–9.6% |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
6.9% |
6.2–7.6% |
6.0–7.9% |
5.8–8.1% |
5.5–8.4% |
Moderaterne (RE) |
0.0% |
5.4% |
4.8–6.2% |
4.7–6.4% |
4.5–6.5% |
4.3–6.9% |
Dansk Folkeparti (ID) |
26.6% |
4.5% |
4.0–5.2% |
3.8–5.4% |
3.7–5.5% |
3.5–5.9% |
Radikale Venstre (RE) |
6.5% |
3.8% |
3.3–4.5% |
3.2–4.6% |
3.1–4.8% |
2.8–5.1% |
Alternativet (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
2.1% |
1.8–2.6% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.6–2.9% |
1.4–3.1% |
Nye Borgerlige (NI) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Socialdemokraterne (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
34% |
100% |
|
3 |
66% |
66% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Alliance (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
32% |
32% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
98.7% |
98.8% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Danmarksdemokraterne (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Danmarksdemokraterne (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Moderaterne (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderaterne (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Dansk Folkeparti (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Radikale Venstre (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternativet (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Nye Borgerlige (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialdemokraterne (S&D) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Venstre (RE) – Moderaterne (RE) – Radikale Venstre (RE) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3–4 |
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Greens/EFA) – Alternativet (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Danmarksdemokraterne (ECR) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne (GUE/NGL) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Dansk Folkeparti (ID) |
4 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Nye Borgerlige (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Socialdemokraterne (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre (RE) – Moderaterne (RE) – Radikale Venstre (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
99.4% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Greens/EFA) – Alternativet (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
34% |
100% |
|
3 |
66% |
66% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Danmarksdemokraterne (ECR)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne (GUE/NGL)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Dansk Folkeparti (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nye Borgerlige (NI)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): Berlingske
- Fieldwork period: 24 March 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1984
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.36%