Opinion Poll by Gallup for Berlingske, 2 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 24.4% 23.0–25.8% 22.7–26.2% 22.3–26.6% 21.7–27.3%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 12.3% 11.3–13.4% 11.0–13.7% 10.8–14.0% 10.3–14.6%
Venstre 23.4% 11.9% 10.9–13.0% 10.6–13.3% 10.4–13.6% 9.9–14.1%
Danmarksdemokraterne 0.0% 9.8% 8.9–10.8% 8.6–11.1% 8.4–11.3% 8.0–11.8%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 8.7% 7.9–9.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.4–10.2% 7.0–10.7%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 7.9% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.3% 6.3–9.8%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 6.8% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.7–8.1% 5.3–8.6%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Moderaterne 0.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.8%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 1.9% 1.6–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–3.0%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
Alternativet 3.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%
Frie Grønne 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 46 43–46 41–48 41–48 40–48
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 23 21–23 21–25 21–25 20–25
Venstre 43 22 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–24
Danmarksdemokraterne 0 17 16–20 15–21 15–21 15–21
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–18
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 14 13–15 13–17 13–17 12–19
Radikale Venstre 16 14 11–15 11–15 11–15 10–15
Nye Borgerlige 4 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 9–13
Liberal Alliance 4 6 6–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Moderaterne 0 5 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Dansk Folkeparti 16 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Alternativet 5 0 0 0 0 0
Frie Grønne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.6%  
41 5% 99.5%  
42 2% 95%  
43 14% 93%  
44 7% 80%  
45 16% 73%  
46 47% 57% Median
47 0.1% 9%  
48 9% 9% Last Result
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.6%  
20 0.8% 99.5%  
21 18% 98.7%  
22 13% 80%  
23 60% 68% Median
24 0.6% 8%  
25 7% 7%  
26 0% 0.3%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 12% 99.4%  
21 21% 88%  
22 44% 66% Median
23 0.6% 22%  
24 21% 21%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Danmarksdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Danmarksdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 8% 99.8%  
16 13% 92%  
17 64% 79% Median
18 2% 15%  
19 2% 13%  
20 2% 12%  
21 9% 9%  
22 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100% Last Result
14 16% 99.4%  
15 16% 83%  
16 43% 67% Median
17 15% 24%  
18 9% 10%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 30% 98%  
14 47% 68% Last Result, Median
15 12% 21%  
16 3% 9%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.1% 0.6%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 21% 99.5%  
12 12% 78%  
13 11% 66%  
14 12% 55% Median
15 43% 43%  
16 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 6% 99.5%  
10 15% 94%  
11 54% 79% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.4% 100%  
6 58% 99.6% Median
7 25% 41%  
8 12% 16%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Moderaterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderaterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 59% 99.6% Median
6 9% 40%  
7 24% 31%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 0% 30%  
4 20% 30%  
5 11% 11%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0.6% 0.7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Frie Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Frie Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 96 90 66% 83–91 83–91 83–91 81–91
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 91 90 66% 83–91 83–91 83–91 81–91
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Danmarksdemokraterne – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 79 79 0% 78–85 78–86 78–86 78–88
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 80 76 0% 72–78 71–78 71–78 70–79
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 75 76 0% 72–78 71–78 71–78 70–79
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 78 73 0% 69–75 68–76 67–76 66–76
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 79 62 0% 61–68 59–69 59–70 59–70
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti 79 62 0% 61–68 59–69 59–70 59–70
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 60 0% 55–61 54–61 54–61 53–61
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 75 51 0% 49–56 49–59 49–60 49–60
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti 75 51 0% 49–56 49–59 49–60 49–60
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance 59 51 0% 49–53 49–54 49–55 46–55
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre 55 45 0% 43–45 43–47 42–47 40–48
Venstre 43 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–24

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 2% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 98%  
83 18% 98%  
84 6% 80%  
85 0.9% 74%  
86 0.5% 73%  
87 3% 72%  
88 2% 69%  
89 0.8% 67%  
90 18% 66% Median, Majority
91 48% 48%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 2% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 98%  
83 18% 98%  
84 6% 80%  
85 0.8% 74%  
86 0.6% 73%  
87 3% 72%  
88 2% 69%  
89 0.9% 67%  
90 18% 66% Median, Majority
91 48% 48% Last Result
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Danmarksdemokraterne – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 14% 99.6%  
79 44% 86% Last Result, Median
80 13% 43%  
81 1.0% 29%  
82 1.0% 29%  
83 0.7% 28%  
84 3% 27%  
85 16% 24%  
86 6% 8%  
87 0% 2%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.4% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 3% 98%  
72 21% 95%  
73 1.3% 74%  
74 5% 73%  
75 0.3% 68%  
76 52% 67% Median
77 0.8% 16%  
78 14% 15%  
79 1.1% 1.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.4% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 3% 98%  
72 21% 94%  
73 1.3% 74%  
74 5% 72%  
75 0.2% 67% Last Result
76 52% 67% Median
77 0.8% 16%  
78 14% 15%  
79 1.1% 1.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.8%  
67 3% 98%  
68 3% 95%  
69 19% 92%  
70 1.0% 74%  
71 2% 73%  
72 12% 70%  
73 10% 58%  
74 0.4% 48% Median
75 42% 48%  
76 6% 6%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 9% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 91%  
61 2% 90%  
62 48% 89% Median
63 12% 41%  
64 1.0% 29%  
65 0.6% 28%  
66 1.1% 27%  
67 0.3% 26%  
68 19% 26%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 9% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 91%  
61 2% 90%  
62 48% 89% Median
63 12% 41%  
64 1.0% 29%  
65 0.9% 28%  
66 1.1% 27%  
67 0.3% 26%  
68 19% 25%  
69 3% 6%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.8%  
54 8% 98.7%  
55 2% 91%  
56 19% 89%  
57 12% 70%  
58 1.1% 58%  
59 7% 57%  
60 8% 51% Median
61 42% 42%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 15% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 85%  
51 43% 84% Median
52 8% 41%  
53 2% 33%  
54 4% 31%  
55 0.5% 27%  
56 18% 26%  
57 0.1% 8%  
58 2% 8%  
59 4% 7%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0% 99.8%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0% 99.7%  
48 0% 99.7%  
49 15% 99.6%  
50 0.7% 85%  
51 43% 84% Median
52 8% 41%  
53 2% 33%  
54 4% 31%  
55 0.8% 27%  
56 18% 26%  
57 0.1% 8%  
58 2% 8%  
59 3% 6%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.1% 99.6%  
47 0.1% 99.5%  
48 0.2% 99.4%  
49 18% 99.2%  
50 0.8% 81%  
51 43% 80% Median
52 26% 37%  
53 3% 11%  
54 4% 8%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.6%  
40 0.2% 99.5%  
41 0.5% 99.3%  
42 3% 98.8%  
43 16% 95%  
44 9% 80%  
45 61% 71% Median
46 4% 9%  
47 5% 5%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 12% 99.4%  
21 21% 88%  
22 44% 66% Median
23 0.6% 22%  
24 21% 21%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations