Opinion Poll by Gallup for Berlingske, 12 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 27.4% 26.1–28.7% 25.8–29.1% 25.5–29.4% 24.9–30.0%
Venstre 23.4% 12.9% 11.9–13.9% 11.7–14.2% 11.5–14.4% 11.0–14.9%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 9.9% 9.1–10.8% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.3% 8.3–11.8%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 8.5% 7.8–9.4% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Danmarksdemokraterne 0.0% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 6.1% 5.5–6.9% 5.3–7.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.6%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–7.0%
Moderaterne 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–7.0%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 3.9–6.5%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 3.1% 2.7–3.7% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3%
Alternativet 3.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Frie Grønne 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 49 44–51 44–51 44–52 44–54
Venstre 43 23 22–25 20–25 19–28 19–28
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 18 16–21 15–21 15–21 14–21
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 15 14–16 14–16 13–17 13–18
Danmarksdemokraterne 0 16 13–17 13–17 13–17 12–17
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 10 10–11 10–12 9–13 9–14
Liberal Alliance 4 11 8–11 8–11 8–12 8–13
Moderaterne 0 10 8–11 8–11 8–13 8–14
Radikale Venstre 16 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Nye Borgerlige 4 8 8–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Dansk Folkeparti 16 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Alternativet 5 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Frie Grønne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 10% 100%  
45 2% 90%  
46 4% 88%  
47 5% 84%  
48 2% 79% Last Result
49 57% 77% Median
50 8% 19%  
51 8% 11%  
52 1.3% 3%  
53 0.1% 2%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 5% 100%  
20 1.0% 95%  
21 0.7% 94%  
22 15% 93%  
23 54% 78% Median
24 9% 24%  
25 12% 16%  
26 0.6% 4%  
27 0.2% 3%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 7% 98%  
16 3% 91%  
17 11% 88%  
18 43% 77% Median
19 16% 35%  
20 1.2% 18%  
21 17% 17%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 19% 97% Last Result
15 30% 78% Median
16 44% 48%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Danmarksdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Danmarksdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 31% 89%  
15 6% 58%  
16 13% 52% Median
17 38% 38%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 3% 99.9%  
10 72% 97% Median
11 18% 25%  
12 3% 7%  
13 4% 5% Last Result
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 14% 99.9%  
9 5% 86%  
10 25% 81%  
11 52% 56% Median
12 4% 5%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Moderaterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderaterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 10% 99.9%  
9 30% 90%  
10 12% 60% Median
11 44% 49%  
12 1.4% 4%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 45% 98%  
9 29% 53% Median
10 17% 23%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 4% 98%  
8 60% 94% Median
9 25% 34%  
10 9% 9%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 43% 100%  
5 9% 57% Median
6 26% 49%  
7 23% 23%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 25% 26%  
5 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Frie Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Frie Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 96 83 1.0% 82–88 82–89 82–89 80–91
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre 91 83 0.3% 78–85 78–86 78–87 78–88
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Danmarksdemokraterne – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 79 81 0% 78–84 77–84 77–84 76–86
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet 80 75 0% 73–79 73–80 72–80 70–82
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 75 75 0% 69–76 69–76 69–77 69–79
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 78 73 0% 68–75 68–75 68–76 68–78
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 79 64 0% 64–68 63–68 63–69 61–70
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti 79 64 0% 64–68 63–68 62–69 61–70
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 57 0% 53–60 53–60 53–63 53–63
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 75 56 0% 55–60 53–60 53–60 53–62
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti 75 56 0% 54–60 53–60 53–60 53–62
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 59 52 0% 48–54 48–54 48–54 47–55
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 55 41 0% 38–44 37–44 37–45 37–46
Venstre 43 23 0% 22–25 20–25 19–28 19–28

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 1.4% 99.6%  
81 0.1% 98%  
82 14% 98%  
83 44% 84% Median
84 18% 40%  
85 4% 22%  
86 2% 18%  
87 3% 16%  
88 5% 13%  
89 7% 8%  
90 0.3% 1.0% Majority
91 0.6% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 10% 100%  
79 0.3% 90%  
80 3% 90%  
81 1.0% 87%  
82 4% 86%  
83 44% 82% Median
84 22% 37%  
85 10% 15%  
86 2% 5%  
87 3% 3%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3% Majority
91 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Danmarksdemokraterne – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.9% 99.7%  
77 8% 98.8%  
78 9% 91%  
79 4% 82% Last Result
80 2% 78%  
81 43% 77% Median
82 18% 33%  
83 0.5% 16%  
84 14% 15%  
85 0.4% 1.4%  
86 0.7% 1.0%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 2% 100%  
71 0.2% 98%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 11% 97%  
74 22% 86% Median
75 43% 64%  
76 3% 21%  
77 3% 18%  
78 1.5% 15%  
79 5% 13%  
80 7% 8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.9%  
82 0.7% 0.7%  
83 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 10% 100%  
70 2% 90%  
71 0.3% 88%  
72 3% 88%  
73 2% 85%  
74 22% 84% Median
75 48% 61% Last Result
76 10% 14%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.9% 1.5%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 10% 99.9%  
69 1.4% 90%  
70 2% 88%  
71 2% 86%  
72 8% 84%  
73 56% 76% Median
74 9% 20%  
75 8% 11%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 7% 98.8%  
64 49% 92%  
65 0.8% 43% Median
66 2% 42%  
67 3% 40%  
68 33% 37%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.5%  
62 2% 99.4%  
63 7% 97%  
64 55% 91%  
65 0.8% 36% Median
66 0.6% 35%  
67 3% 34%  
68 27% 31%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 10% 100%  
54 1.1% 90%  
55 5% 89%  
56 3% 83%  
57 44% 81%  
58 2% 37% Median
59 24% 35%  
60 8% 11%  
61 0.3% 3%  
62 0.3% 3%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0% 0.2% Last Result
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 5% 99.7%  
54 0.2% 95%  
55 8% 94%  
56 42% 87%  
57 3% 45% Median
58 8% 42%  
59 13% 35%  
60 21% 22%  
61 0.1% 1.0%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 5% 99.7%  
54 5% 95%  
55 10% 90%  
56 42% 80%  
57 3% 38% Median
58 3% 36%  
59 11% 33%  
60 21% 22%  
61 0.1% 1.0%  
62 0.7% 0.9%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 12% 99.3%  
49 3% 87%  
50 9% 85%  
51 2% 76%  
52 51% 74% Median
53 6% 23%  
54 16% 17%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.3%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 7% 99.9%  
38 7% 92%  
39 2% 85%  
40 6% 83%  
41 45% 77% Median
42 1.1% 32%  
43 2% 31%  
44 25% 29%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.7% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 5% 100%  
20 1.0% 95%  
21 0.7% 94%  
22 15% 93%  
23 54% 78% Median
24 9% 24%  
25 12% 16%  
26 0.6% 4%  
27 0.2% 3%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations