Opinion Poll by Gallup for Berlingske, 18 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 27.7% 26.4–29.0% 26.1–29.4% 25.8–29.7% 25.2–30.4%
Venstre 23.4% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.5–16.6%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.4–10.7%
Moderaterne 0.0% 7.3% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.5% 5.9–8.9%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.5–8.5%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%
Danmarksdemokraterne 0.0% 5.9% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.6% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.4% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.9%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.8%
Alternativet 3.0% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.4%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%
Frie Grønne 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 53 49–54 49–54 46–54 45–55
Venstre 43 24 24–26 24–26 24–29 23–31
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 15 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–17
Moderaterne 0 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 13 11–14 10–14 10–14 10–14
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 14 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–14
Liberal Alliance 4 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Danmarksdemokraterne 0 11 11–12 11–13 10–13 9–13
Nye Borgerlige 4 8 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10
Radikale Venstre 16 7 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Dansk Folkeparti 16 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Alternativet 5 0 0 0 0 0
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0
Frie Grønne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 0.2% 97%  
48 0.4% 97% Last Result
49 8% 97%  
50 32% 89%  
51 1.5% 57%  
52 2% 56%  
53 6% 54% Median
54 48% 48%  
55 0.6% 0.6%  
56 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 57% 99.5% Median
25 14% 42%  
26 23% 28%  
27 0.9% 5%  
28 0.3% 4%  
29 2% 4%  
30 0% 2%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.3% 100% Last Result
15 56% 98.6% Median
16 3% 43%  
17 39% 40%  
18 0.2% 0.5%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Moderaterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderaterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.9% 100%  
11 24% 99.1%  
12 0.8% 75%  
13 55% 75% Median
14 19% 20%  
15 0.9% 1.0%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 9% 100%  
11 1.5% 91%  
12 2% 90% Last Result
13 63% 87% Median
14 24% 24%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 9% 99.7%  
12 39% 91%  
13 1.5% 52% Last Result
14 50% 50% Median
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 56% 98% Median
12 30% 43%  
13 12% 12%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Danmarksdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Danmarksdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 2% 99.2%  
11 72% 97% Median
12 16% 25%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.8% 99.9%  
8 79% 99.1% Median
9 18% 20%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 55% 99.2% Median
8 34% 44%  
9 1.2% 11%  
10 9% 9%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 9% 99.8%  
5 67% 91% Median
6 23% 24%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Frie Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Frie Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 96 88 48% 86–90 86–90 84–90 81–90
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre 91 88 48% 86–90 86–90 84–90 81–90
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet 80 81 0% 78–83 78–83 75–83 73–83
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 75 80 0% 78–83 78–83 75–83 73–83
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Danmarksdemokraterne – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 79 73 0% 72–77 72–77 72–80 72–81
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 78 76 0% 74–76 74–77 71–77 68–77
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 79 61 0% 61–66 61–66 61–67 61–70
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti 79 61 0% 61–66 61–66 61–67 61–70
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 60 0% 57–61 57–61 55–61 52–61
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 75 53 0% 53–58 52–58 52–59 52–61
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti 75 53 0% 53–58 52–58 52–59 52–61
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 59 48 0% 48–52 47–52 47–54 47–55
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 55 37 0% 37–40 34–40 34–41 34–44
Venstre 43 24 0% 24–26 24–26 24–29 23–31

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 1.2% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 0.2% 98%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 0.1% 97%  
86 8% 97%  
87 28% 88%  
88 10% 60%  
89 2% 50% Median
90 48% 48% Majority
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 1.2% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 0.3% 98%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 0.2% 97%  
86 8% 97%  
87 28% 88%  
88 10% 60%  
89 2% 50% Median
90 48% 48% Majority
91 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 2% 100%  
74 0.1% 98%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 0.3% 97%  
77 0.2% 97%  
78 17% 97%  
79 22% 79%  
80 7% 57% Last Result
81 1.5% 50%  
82 0.8% 49% Median
83 48% 48%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 2% 100%  
74 0.1% 98%  
75 1.2% 98% Last Result
76 0.4% 97%  
77 0.2% 97%  
78 17% 97%  
79 22% 79%  
80 7% 57%  
81 1.5% 50%  
82 0.8% 49% Median
83 48% 48%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Danmarksdemokraterne – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 49% 99.7% Median
73 9% 51%  
74 0.8% 42%  
75 15% 41%  
76 0.3% 26%  
77 23% 26%  
78 0.5% 3%  
79 0.2% 3% Last Result
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0% 0.3%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.8% 100%  
69 1.4% 99.2%  
70 0.3% 98%  
71 0.7% 98%  
72 0.1% 97%  
73 0.3% 97%  
74 9% 97%  
75 30% 88% Median
76 49% 58%  
77 9% 9%  
78 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 57% 99.5% Median
62 7% 43%  
63 7% 36%  
64 1.0% 29%  
65 2% 28%  
66 23% 26%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.1% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.5%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 57% 99.5% Median
62 7% 43%  
63 7% 36%  
64 1.0% 29%  
65 2% 28%  
66 23% 26%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.1% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.5%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.6% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.2%  
54 1.4% 99.2%  
55 0.8% 98%  
56 0.2% 97%  
57 7% 97%  
58 23% 89%  
59 2% 66%  
60 16% 65% Median
61 49% 49%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 9% 99.6%  
53 55% 90% Median
54 0.8% 36%  
55 7% 35%  
56 2% 28%  
57 0.5% 26%  
58 23% 25%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.8%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Dansk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 9% 99.6%  
53 55% 90% Median
54 0.8% 36%  
55 7% 35%  
56 2% 28%  
57 0.5% 26%  
58 23% 25%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.2% 0.8%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 9% 99.6%  
48 48% 91% Median
49 7% 43%  
50 8% 36%  
51 0.8% 28%  
52 24% 27%  
53 0.1% 3%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 9% 99.7%  
35 0.1% 91%  
36 0.1% 91%  
37 50% 91% Median
38 13% 41%  
39 0.3% 27%  
40 24% 27%  
41 1.1% 3%  
42 0.4% 2%  
43 0.5% 2%  
44 1.2% 1.4%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 57% 99.5% Median
25 14% 42%  
26 23% 28%  
27 0.9% 5%  
28 0.3% 4%  
29 2% 4%  
30 0% 2%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations