Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 13 May–4 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
19.5% |
18.0–21.1% |
17.6–21.6% |
17.3–22.0% |
16.6–22.8% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
17.4% |
16.0–19.0% |
15.6–19.4% |
15.3–19.8% |
14.6–20.5% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
16.7% |
15.3–18.2% |
14.9–18.6% |
14.6–19.0% |
13.9–19.8% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
13.9% |
12.6–15.3% |
12.2–15.7% |
11.9–16.0% |
11.4–16.7% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
12.4% |
11.2–13.8% |
10.9–14.1% |
10.6–14.5% |
10.0–15.2% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
7.8% |
6.9–9.0% |
6.6–9.3% |
6.4–9.6% |
6.0–10.2% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.5% |
3.7–5.4% |
3.6–5.6% |
3.4–5.9% |
3.1–6.3% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.4% |
2.8–4.6% |
2.6–4.8% |
2.3–5.3% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
89% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
10% |
10% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
15% |
100% |
|
3 |
85% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
1–3 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
89% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
10% |
10% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
15% |
100% |
|
3 |
85% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
2 |
91% |
99.0% |
Median |
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Taloustutkimus
- Commissioner(s): Yle
- Fieldwork period: 13 May–4 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1097
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.98%