Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | VAS | VIHR | SDP | KESK | SFP | KOK | KD | PS | SIN | LIIK | VKK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 8–10% 1–2 |
7–9% 1 |
21–26% 4–5 |
11–14% 2–3 |
3–5% 0 |
17–21% 3–4 |
3–5% 0–1 |
14–18% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
2–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
| 6 November–3 December 2024 | Taloustutkimus Yle |
8–10% 1–2 |
7–10% 1–2 |
22–26% 4–5 |
12–15% 2–3 |
3–4% 0 |
17–21% 3–4 |
3–5% 0–1 |
14–17% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
2–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
| 14 October–15 November 2024 | Verian Helsingin Sanomat |
8–10% 1–2 |
7–9% 1 |
21–24% 4–5 |
11–14% 2 |
3–5% 0 |
18–22% 3–4 |
3–5% 0 |
15–18% 3 |
N/A N/A |
2–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
| 9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- VAS: Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
- VIHR: Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
- SDP: Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
- KESK: Suomen Keskusta (RE)
- SFP: Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
- KOK: Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
- KD: Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
- PS: Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
- SIN: Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR)
- LIIK: Liike Nyt (NI)
- VKK: Valta kuuluu kansalle (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–9.9% | 7.9–10.1% | 7.7–10.4% | 7.3–10.8% |
| Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.5–9.9% |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.3% | 21.7–24.9% | 21.3–25.3% | 21.0–25.7% | 20.4–26.4% |
| Suomen Keskusta (RE) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.6–13.8% | 11.3–14.2% | 11.0–14.5% | 10.6–15.0% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.4–5.1% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.3% | 18.0–20.6% | 17.6–21.0% | 17.3–21.3% | 16.7–22.0% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–4.9% | 2.9–5.3% |
| Perussuomalaiset (ECR) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.1% | 14.1–17.4% | 13.8–17.7% | 13.3–18.3% |
| Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Liike Nyt (NI) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Valta kuuluu kansalle (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 67% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 32% | 32% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 43% | 98.9% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 51% | 56% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 35% | 90% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 38% | 55% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 15% | 17% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 19% | 96% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 19.5–20.5% | 29% | 41% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 10% | 12% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 22% | 99.2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 55% | 77% | Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 20% | 22% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 30% | 87% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 35% | 57% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 18% | 23% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 21% | 92% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 30% | 71% | Median |
| 23.5–24.5% | 26% | 41% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 12% | 16% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 24% | 98.8% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 54% | 75% | Median |
| 9.5–10.5% | 19% | 20% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 16% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 73% | 84% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 11% | 11% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Suomen Keskusta (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Perussuomalaiset (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Liike Nyt (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Valta kuuluu kansalle (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 46% | 100% | |
| 4 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR) page.
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Valta kuuluu kansalle (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Valta kuuluu kansalle (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Perussuomalaiset (ECR) – Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Liike Nyt (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Valta kuuluu kansalle (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 69% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 43% | 100% | |
| 4 | 57% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) – Sininen tulevaisuus (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liike Nyt (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Valta kuuluu kansalle (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 2
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.20%