Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 25 November–20 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
22.7% |
21.4–24.1% |
21.0–24.5% |
20.7–24.8% |
20.1–25.5% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
17.2% |
16.1–18.5% |
15.7–18.8% |
15.5–19.2% |
14.9–19.8% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
15.1% |
14.0–16.3% |
13.7–16.6% |
13.4–16.9% |
12.9–17.5% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
12.5% |
11.5–13.6% |
11.2–13.9% |
11.0–14.2% |
10.5–14.7% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
11.1% |
10.1–12.1% |
9.9–12.4% |
9.6–12.7% |
9.2–13.2% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.4% |
7.6–9.4% |
7.4–9.6% |
7.2–9.9% |
6.8–10.4% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.5% |
3.9–5.2% |
3.7–5.4% |
3.6–5.6% |
3.3–6.0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.9–5.4% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.4–2.2% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.0–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
5% |
100% |
|
4 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
5 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
|
3 |
95% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
18% |
18% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.1% |
99.2% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
17% |
100% |
|
2 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.0% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4 |
3–4 |
3–5 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
2–3 |
2–4 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
2 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
5% |
100% |
|
4 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
5 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
|
3 |
94% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
18% |
18% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.1% |
99.2% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
12% |
100% |
|
2 |
86% |
88% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2019-12-20-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 25 November–20 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1625
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.45%