Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 9 December 2019–8 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
24.3% |
22.6–26.1% |
22.2–26.6% |
21.8–27.1% |
21.0–27.9% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
19.3% |
17.7–20.9% |
17.3–21.4% |
16.9–21.8% |
16.2–22.6% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
14.9% |
13.6–16.4% |
13.2–16.9% |
12.8–17.3% |
12.2–18.0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
12.0% |
10.7–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.1% |
9.5–14.8% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
12.0% |
10.7–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.1% |
9.5–14.8% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.6% |
6.6–10.0% |
6.1–10.6% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
3.9% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.0–5.0% |
2.8–5.2% |
2.5–5.7% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.2–3.7% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.4% |
1.0–2.0% |
0.9–2.2% |
0.8–2.3% |
0.7–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
94% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
3 |
96% |
99.4% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
11% |
11% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
9% |
100% |
|
2 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3–4 |
2–4 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
2 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
94% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
3 |
96% |
99.4% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
11% |
11% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
|
2 |
91% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-01-08-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Taloustutkimus
- Commissioner(s): Yle
- Fieldwork period: 9 December 2019–8 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1012
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%