Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 13 January–4 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
23.3% |
22.2–24.6% |
21.8–24.9% |
21.5–25.2% |
21.0–25.8% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
17.5% |
16.4–18.6% |
16.2–18.9% |
15.9–19.2% |
15.4–19.8% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
16.0% |
15.0–17.1% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.5–17.6% |
14.0–18.2% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
13.3% |
12.4–14.3% |
12.1–14.6% |
11.9–14.9% |
11.5–15.3% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
10.8% |
10.0–11.7% |
9.7–12.0% |
9.5–12.2% |
9.1–12.7% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.3% |
7.6–9.1% |
7.4–9.4% |
7.2–9.6% |
6.8–10.0% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.4% |
3.9–5.1% |
3.7–5.2% |
3.6–5.4% |
3.4–5.7% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.6% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
6% |
100% |
|
3 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
62% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
38% |
38% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
32% |
100% |
|
2 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
2 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
6% |
100% |
|
3 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
62% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
38% |
38% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
29% |
100% |
|
2 |
70% |
71% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-02-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Taloustutkimus
- Commissioner(s): Yle
- Fieldwork period: 13 January–4 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 2058
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.33%