Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 14–29 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
24.1% |
22.6–25.7% |
22.2–26.2% |
21.8–26.6% |
21.1–27.3% |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
18.8% |
17.4–20.3% |
17.0–20.7% |
16.7–21.1% |
16.1–21.8% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
16.2% |
15.0–17.6% |
14.6–18.0% |
14.3–18.4% |
13.7–19.1% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
12.9% |
11.8–14.2% |
11.4–14.6% |
11.2–14.9% |
10.6–15.6% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
9.7% |
8.7–10.9% |
8.4–11.2% |
8.2–11.5% |
7.7–12.1% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
7.3% |
6.4–8.4% |
6.2–8.6% |
6.0–8.9% |
5.6–9.4% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.7% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.2% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.5–4.2% |
2.4–4.4% |
2.1–4.7% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.4% |
1.0–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.9–2.2% |
0.7–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
4 |
94% |
99.1% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
96% |
99.5% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
27% |
100% |
|
3 |
73% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
2 |
98.7% |
99.2% |
Median |
3 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
3–5 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
4 |
94% |
99.1% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
96% |
99.5% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
27% |
100% |
|
3 |
73% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
2 |
97% |
99.3% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.9% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-04-29-Tietoykkönen-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tietoykkönen
- Commissioner(s): Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi
- Fieldwork period: 14–29 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1245
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%