Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 15 June–10 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
21.2% |
19.9–22.6% |
19.5–23.0% |
19.2–23.3% |
18.6–24.0% |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
17.9% |
16.7–19.2% |
16.3–19.5% |
16.0–19.9% |
15.5–20.5% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
17.7% |
16.5–19.0% |
16.1–19.3% |
15.8–19.7% |
15.3–20.3% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
11.6% |
10.6–12.7% |
10.4–13.1% |
10.1–13.3% |
9.7–13.9% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
11.3% |
10.3–12.4% |
10.0–12.7% |
9.8–13.0% |
9.4–13.5% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3–9.2% |
7.1–9.4% |
6.9–9.7% |
6.5–10.2% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.4% |
3.8–5.2% |
3.6–5.4% |
3.5–5.6% |
3.2–5.9% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.9% |
3.3–4.6% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.0–5.0% |
2.8–5.3% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.3% |
1.3–2.5% |
1.2–2.6% |
1.1–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
38% |
38% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
13% |
100% |
|
3 |
87% |
87% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
14% |
100% |
|
2 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
1–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
38% |
38% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
13% |
100% |
|
3 |
87% |
87% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
97% |
97% |
Median |
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
13% |
100% |
|
2 |
84% |
87% |
Median |
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-07-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 15 June–10 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1539
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.25%