Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 6 July–4 August 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
23.4% |
22.1–24.8% |
21.7–25.2% |
21.4–25.5% |
20.8–26.2% |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
18.9% |
17.7–20.2% |
17.3–20.5% |
17.1–20.8% |
16.5–21.5% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
17.3% |
16.2–18.5% |
15.8–18.9% |
15.5–19.2% |
15.0–19.8% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
11.6% |
10.7–12.7% |
10.4–13.0% |
10.2–13.3% |
9.7–13.8% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
10.5% |
9.6–11.6% |
9.4–11.9% |
9.1–12.1% |
8.7–12.6% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.1% |
7.3–9.0% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.9–9.5% |
6.5–10.0% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.9–5.4% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.6% |
3.1–4.3% |
3.0–4.5% |
2.8–4.6% |
2.6–5.0% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.8–1.8% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
5% |
100% |
|
4 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
99.2% |
Median |
4 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
12% |
100% |
|
3 |
88% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
73% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
27% |
27% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2–4 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
5% |
100% |
|
4 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
99.2% |
Median |
4 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
12% |
100% |
|
3 |
88% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
73% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
27% |
27% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2020-08-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Taloustutkimus
- Commissioner(s): Yle
- Fieldwork period: 6 July–4 August 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1653
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.11%