Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 23 August–17 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
20.8% |
19.6–22.1% |
19.3–22.5% |
19.0–22.8% |
18.4–23.4% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
18.4% |
17.3–19.7% |
16.9–20.0% |
16.7–20.3% |
16.1–20.9% |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
17.4% |
16.3–18.6% |
16.0–19.0% |
15.7–19.3% |
15.2–19.8% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
12.9% |
11.9–14.0% |
11.7–14.3% |
11.4–14.6% |
11.0–15.1% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
10.5% |
9.6–11.5% |
9.3–11.8% |
9.1–12.0% |
8.7–12.5% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
7.8% |
7.1–8.7% |
6.8–9.0% |
6.7–9.2% |
6.3–9.6% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.5% |
3.9–5.2% |
3.7–5.4% |
3.6–5.5% |
3.4–5.9% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.6% |
3.1–4.3% |
3.0–4.5% |
2.9–4.6% |
2.6–4.9% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.0% |
1.4–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
49% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
99.6% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.8% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
57% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
43% |
43% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3–4 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
48% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
52% |
52% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
99.6% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
91% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
9% |
9% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
57% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
43% |
43% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-09-17-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 23 August–17 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1764
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.91%