Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 16 November–10 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
21.4% |
20.3–22.5% |
20.0–22.8% |
19.8–23.1% |
19.3–23.6% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
19.3% |
18.3–20.4% |
18.0–20.7% |
17.8–20.9% |
17.3–21.5% |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
17.5% |
16.5–18.5% |
16.2–18.8% |
16.0–19.1% |
15.6–19.6% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
11.9% |
11.1–12.8% |
10.9–13.1% |
10.7–13.3% |
10.3–13.7% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
9.8% |
9.1–10.6% |
8.9–10.9% |
8.7–11.1% |
8.3–11.5% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.0% |
7.3–8.8% |
7.1–9.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.6% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.5% |
4.0–5.1% |
3.8–5.3% |
3.7–5.4% |
3.5–5.7% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–4.0% |
2.7–4.1% |
2.5–4.4% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
2.3% |
2.0–2.8% |
1.9–2.9% |
1.8–3.0% |
1.6–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
18% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
82% |
82% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.0% |
99.0% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
87% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
13% |
13% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2–3 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2–3 |
1–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
18% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
82% |
82% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
2 |
96% |
99.4% |
Median |
3 |
4% |
4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
87% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
13% |
13% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-10-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 16 November–10 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2384
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.30%