Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 17 October–11 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
24.2% |
22.9–25.6% |
22.5–26.0% |
22.2–26.4% |
21.6–27.0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
19.3% |
18.1–20.6% |
17.7–21.0% |
17.5–21.3% |
16.9–21.9% |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
12.9% |
17.4% |
16.2–18.7% |
15.9–19.0% |
15.6–19.3% |
15.1–19.9% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
10.1% |
9.2–11.1% |
8.9–11.4% |
8.7–11.7% |
8.3–12.2% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
9.2% |
8.3–10.2% |
8.1–10.5% |
7.9–10.7% |
7.5–11.2% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.0% |
7.2–8.9% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.8–9.4% |
6.4–9.8% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.4% |
3.8–5.1% |
3.6–5.3% |
3.5–5.5% |
3.2–5.9% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.3% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.5–4.3% |
2.3–4.6% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.9% |
1.5–2.4% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.3–2.7% |
1.2–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
84% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
16% |
16% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
12% |
12% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
98.9% |
Median |
4 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
52% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
48% |
48% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
86% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
14% |
14% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Perussuomalaiset (ID) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
84% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
16% |
16% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
12% |
12% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-ps.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98% |
98.9% |
Median |
4 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
42% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
57% |
58% |
|
3 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
86% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
14% |
14% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-11-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 17 October–11 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1643
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.19%