Vlaams Belang (ID)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 19.1% (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 26.2% | 24.6–27.8% | 24.1–28.2% | 23.7–28.6% | 22.9–29.5% |
| 23 April–3 May 2024 | iVOX Overlegcentrum van Vlaamse Verenigingen |
26.3% | 24.9–27.7% | 24.5–28.2% | 24.2–28.5% | 23.5–29.2% |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
27.4% | 25.6–29.3% | 25.1–29.8% | 24.7–30.3% | 23.9–31.2% |
| 23 February–5 March 2024 | Ipsos Euronews |
23.5% | 21.6–25.5% | 21.0–26.1% | 20.6–26.6% | 19.7–27.6% |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
25.5% | 23.9–27.3% | 23.4–27.8% | 23.0–28.2% | 22.2–29.1% |
| 9–22 January 2024 | iVOX Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds |
26.6% | 25.4–27.9% | 25.0–28.3% | 24.7–28.6% | 24.1–29.2% |
| 8–22 January 2024 | Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
27.8% | 26.5–29.2% | 26.1–29.6% | 25.8–29.9% | 25.2–30.6% |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.1% | 23.4–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.9% | 21.7–28.8% |
| 23–28 November 2023 | iVOX Gazet van Antwerpen |
26.5% | 24.8–28.3% | 24.3–28.9% | 23.9–29.3% | 23.0–30.2% |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
23.3% | 21.2–25.7% | 20.5–26.4% | 20.0–27.0% | 19.0–28.2% |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.7% | 21.1–24.5% | 20.6–25.0% | 20.2–25.4% | 19.4–26.3% |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
24.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
24.7% | 22.4–27.3% | 21.7–28.0% | 21.2–28.6% | 20.1–29.9% |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.2% |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
21.6% | 20.0–23.4% | 19.5–23.8% | 19.2–24.3% | 18.4–25.1% |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.6% | 21.0–24.4% | 20.5–24.9% | 20.1–25.3% | 19.4–26.2% |
| 14–31 March 2022 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
22.2% | 20.6–24.0% | 20.2–24.5% | 19.8–24.9% | 19.0–25.8% |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26.1% | 24.4–28.0% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–29.0% | 22.7–29.9% |
| 29 March–19 April 2021 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
24.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
23.6% | 21.9–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
26.3% | 24.6–28.2% | 24.1–28.7% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.9–30.0% |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
27.1% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.5% | 24.4–29.9% | 23.6–30.8% |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
26.9% | 24.7–29.3% | 24.1–30.0% | 23.5–30.6% | 22.5–31.8% |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
27.7% | 25.8–29.6% | 25.3–30.1% | 24.9–30.6% | 24.1–31.5% |
| 9–28 April 2020 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.2–30.9% | 24.4–31.8% |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
27.3% | 25.6–29.2% | 25.1–29.7% | 24.6–30.2% | 23.8–31.1% |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.7–27.2% | 22.3–27.7% | 21.5–28.6% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang (ID).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 8% | 98% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 21% | 90% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 26.5–27.5% | 25% | 38% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 3 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 23 April–3 May 2024 | iVOX Overlegcentrum van Vlaamse Verenigingen |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 11–18 March 2024 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 23 February–5 March 2024 | Ipsos Euronews |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 22 January–8 February 2024 | Kantar Knack and Le Vif |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 9–22 January 2024 | iVOX Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 8–22 January 2024 | Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 4–11 December 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 23–28 November 2023 | iVOX Gazet van Antwerpen |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 10 September–9 October 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 18–25 September 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 29 May–6 June 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 20–27 March 2023 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 13–23 March 2023 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
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| 16–29 January 2023 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 21–29 November 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 7–13 September 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 |
| 6–14 June 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| 14–31 March 2022 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
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| 15–22 March 2022 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| 1–8 December 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 7–14 September 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 25 May–1 June 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 29 March–19 April 2021 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard and VRT |
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| 4–9 March 2021 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 2–8 December 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 2–8 October 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 28 August–1 September 2020 | Dedicated Soirmag |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 10–15 June 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 9–28 April 2020 | TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
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| 4–9 March 2020 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 29 November–6 December 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 2–10 September 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang (ID).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 84% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |