Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | N-VA | VB | VLD | CD&V | GROEN | VOORUIT | PVDA | PIRAAT | LDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 22.4% 3 |
19.1% 3 |
16.0% 2 |
14.5% 2 |
12.4% 1 |
10.2% 1 |
5.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 18–24% 3–4 |
23–29% 3–4 |
9–12% 1–2 |
10–14% 1–2 |
5–8% 0–1 |
10–14% 1–2 |
10–14% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
18–23% 3–4 |
23–29% 3–4 |
9–12% 1–2 |
10–14% 1–2 |
5–8% 0–1 |
10–14% 1–2 |
10–14% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 22.4% 3 |
19.1% 3 |
16.0% 2 |
14.5% 2 |
12.4% 1 |
10.2% 1 |
5.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- N-VA: Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
- VB: Vlaams Belang (ID)
- VLD: Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
- CD&V: Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
- GROEN: Groen (Greens/EFA)
- VOORUIT: Vooruit (S&D)
- PVDA: Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
- PIRAAT: Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA)
- LDD: Lijst Dedecker (ECR)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 22.4% | 20.9% | 19.3–22.6% | 18.9–23.1% | 18.5–23.5% | 17.7–24.3% |
| Vlaams Belang (ID) | 19.1% | 26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 16.0% | 10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.1% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 14.5% | 11.7% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 12.4% | 6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.2–14.3% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 5.0% | 12.3% | 11.0–13.6% | 10.6–14.0% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% |
| Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lijst Dedecker (ECR) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 11% | 97% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 25% | 86% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 30% | 61% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 21% | 31% | Last Result |
| 22.5–23.5% | 8% | 10% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (ID) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 11% | 97% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 22% | 86% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 29% | 63% | Median |
| 26.5–27.5% | 22% | 35% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 14% | 98% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 37% | 84% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 33% | 47% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 12% | 14% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 33% | 87% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 35% | 54% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 16% | 20% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 23% | 98.6% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 50% | 76% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 23% | 26% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 13% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10.5–11.5% | 35% | 85% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 33% | 51% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 14% | 17% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 20% | 96% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 37% | 76% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 28% | 39% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 9% | 11% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Vlaams Belang (ID) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 2 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lijst Dedecker (ECR) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 89% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 42% | 42% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 36% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 64% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA) page.
Lijst Dedecker (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lijst Dedecker (ECR) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) – Lijst Dedecker (ECR) | 3 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Vlaams Belang (ID) | 3 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vooruit (S&D) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Groen (Greens/EFA) – Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) – Lijst Dedecker (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 89% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 42% | 42% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 36% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 64% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Groen (Greens/EFA) – Piratenpartij (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 1
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.76%