Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 8–18 April 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vlaams Belang (ID) |
19.1% |
26.0% |
24.3–27.8% |
23.8–28.3% |
23.4–28.8% |
22.6–29.7% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) |
22.4% |
20.9% |
19.3–22.6% |
18.9–23.1% |
18.5–23.5% |
17.7–24.3% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) |
5.0% |
12.2% |
11.0–13.6% |
10.6–14.0% |
10.3–14.4% |
9.8–15.1% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) |
14.5% |
11.6% |
10.4–13.0% |
10.1–13.4% |
9.8–13.7% |
9.2–14.4% |
Vooruit (S&D) |
10.2% |
11.5% |
10.3–12.9% |
10.0–13.3% |
9.7–13.6% |
9.1–14.3% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) |
16.0% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.8% |
9.0–12.1% |
8.7–12.5% |
8.2–13.1% |
Groen (Greens/EFA) |
12.4% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Vlaams Belang (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
89% |
91% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
2% |
100% |
|
3 |
95% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
36% |
100% |
|
2 |
64% |
64% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
64% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
36% |
36% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
45% |
100% |
|
1 |
55% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vlaams Belang (ID) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–5 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) |
2 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) |
2 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vooruit (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vlaams Belang (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
89% |
91% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
36% |
100% |
|
2 |
64% |
64% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
64% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
36% |
36% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique and RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 8–18 April 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1016
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.76%