Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 8–18 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang (ID) 19.1% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) 22.4% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.7–24.3%
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) 5.0% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.8–15.1%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) 14.5% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.1–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Vooruit (S&D) 10.2% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) 16.0% 10.4% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.1%
Groen (Greens/EFA) 12.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang (ID) 3 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) 3 3 3 3 3–4 2–4
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) 2 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vooruit (S&D) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) 2 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Groen (Greens/EFA) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Vlaams Belang (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100% Last Result
4 89% 91% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 95% 98% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 36% 100%  
2 64% 64% Median
3 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 58% 100% Median
2 42% 42% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Vooruit (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 64% 100% Last Result, Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Groen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 55% 55% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang (ID) 3 4 0% 4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP) 2 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE) 2 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vooruit (S&D) 1 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Vlaams Belang (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100% Last Result
4 89% 91% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 58% 100% Median
2 42% 42% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 91% 100% Median
2 9% 9% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 36% 100%  
2 64% 64% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vooruit (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 64% 100% Last Result, Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations