Opinion Poll by Nézőpont Intézet, 2–4 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) 51.5% 39.2% 37.2–41.2% 36.7–41.8% 36.2–42.3% 35.3–43.2%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 9.8% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) 51.5% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 10.9% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Nép Pártján (*) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 7.2% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 5.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Jobbik (NI) 14.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) 11 10 10–11 10–11 9–11 9–11
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 2 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) 11 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 2 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Nép Pártján (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 3 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 49% 96% Median
11 47% 47% Last Result, Majority
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 90% 91% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 92% 98% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100% Last Result
3 93% 94% Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Nép Pártján (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nép Pártján (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI) 14 12 96% 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP) 11 4 0% 4 3–4 3–5 3–5

Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 4% 100%  
11 43% 96% Median, Majority
12 53% 53%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) – Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) – Mindenki Magyarországa Mozgalom (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100%  
4 87% 91% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations