Opinion Poll by ZRI Závecz Research, 4–11 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) 51.5% 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8% 25.7–31.3% 24.8–32.2%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 9.8% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) 51.5% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 10.9% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 7.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 5.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Jobbik (NI) 14.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) 11 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 2 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) 11 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 2 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Jobbik (NI) 3 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 8% 100%  
7 75% 92% Median
8 17% 17%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 25% 100%  
5 71% 75% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 92% 98% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 72% 72% Median
3 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 36% 36% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lehet Más a Politika (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI) 14 9 0% 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10

Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 20% 99.0%  
9 75% 79% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0% Majority
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations