Opinion Poll by Iránytű Intézet, 17–19 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) 51.5% 43.0% 41.0–44.9% 40.5–45.5% 40.0–46.0% 39.1–46.9%
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.9–28.3% 23.5–28.7% 22.7–29.6%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.2%
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) 51.5% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.2%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.8%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Második Reformkor (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 10.9% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–3.0%
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 7.2% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Jobbik (NI) 14.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) 11 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 6 6 6–7 6–7 5–7
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 2 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) 11 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Második Reformkor (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 2 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Jobbik (NI) 3 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 11% 99.8%  
11 78% 88% Last Result, Median, Majority
12 11% 11%  
13 0% 0%  

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 91% 98% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 96% 99.4% Last Result, Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 68% 68% Median
2 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Momentum Mozgalom (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Második Reformkor (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0% Last Result

Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Jobbik (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI) 14 11 89% 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12

Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 11% 99.9%  
11 76% 89% Median, Majority
12 13% 13%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations