Opinion Poll by Iránytű Intézet, 17–19 April 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz (NI) |
51.5% |
43.0% |
41.0–44.9% |
40.5–45.5% |
40.0–46.0% |
39.1–46.9% |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) |
0.0% |
26.0% |
24.3–27.8% |
23.9–28.3% |
23.5–28.7% |
22.7–29.6% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) |
9.8% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.1% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.6–8.7% |
5.2–9.2% |
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) |
51.5% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.1% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.6–8.7% |
5.2–9.2% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.8% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Momentum Mozgalom (RE) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Második Reformkor (*) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.1–3.3% |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) |
10.9% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.6% |
0.9–3.0% |
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) |
7.2% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.6–2.5% |
Jobbik (NI) |
14.7% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Fidesz (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
78% |
88% |
Last Result, Median, Majority |
12 |
11% |
11% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
91% |
98% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
2 |
96% |
99.4% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
81% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
19% |
19% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result, Majority |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Momentum Mozgalom (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Momentum Mozgalom (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Második Reformkor (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jobbik (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI) |
14 |
11 |
89% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
Fidesz (NI) – Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (NI) – Jobbik (NI)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
76% |
89% |
Median, Majority |
12 |
13% |
13% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Iránytű Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–19 April 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1073
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%