Opinion Poll by Medián for HVG and RTL, 27 April–2 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 68.0% | 65.5–70.4% | 64.8–71.0% | 64.2–71.6% | 62.9–72.7% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.3–27.0% | 20.7–27.6% | 19.8–28.7% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.6–7.8% | 4.4–8.2% | 3.9–8.9% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.5–2.2% | 0.3–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 9% | 100% | |
| 15 | 73% | 91% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 17% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 78% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 78% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Medián
- Commissioner(s): HVG and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 27 April–2 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 600
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.87%