Opinion Poll by IDEA Intézet, 8–11 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 68.0% | 66.1–69.9% | 65.5–70.4% | 65.0–70.8% | 64.1–71.7% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 7% | 100% | |
| 15 | 63% | 93% | Median |
| 16 | 30% | 30% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 73% | 99.2% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 26% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 73% | 99.2% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 26% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IDEA Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–11 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.21%