Opinion Poll by ZRI Závecz Research, 6–14 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 49.0% | 47.0–51.0% | 46.4–51.6% | 45.9–52.1% | 44.9–53.1% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| DK | 25.6% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| MM | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 155 | 153–158 | 152–158 | 151–159 | 150–161 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| MSZP | 29 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| DK | 4 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| LMP | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 152 | 5% | 97% | |
| 153 | 18% | 92% | |
| 154 | 22% | 74% | |
| 155 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 156 | 15% | 32% | |
| 157 | 7% | 17% | |
| 158 | 7% | 10% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 12% | 97% | |
| 17 | 29% | 85% | |
| 18 | 27% | 55% | Median |
| 19 | 18% | 28% | |
| 20 | 9% | 10% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 34% | 98% | |
| 11 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 42% | |
| 13 | 24% | 31% | |
| 14 | 7% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 28% | 90% | |
| 10 | 39% | 62% | Median |
| 11 | 19% | 22% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 41% | 92% | Last Result |
| 6 | 38% | 51% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 14% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 155 | 100% | 153–158 | 152–158 | 151–159 | 150–161 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 152 | 5% | 97% | |
| 153 | 18% | 92% | |
| 154 | 22% | 74% | |
| 155 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 156 | 15% | 32% | |
| 157 | 7% | 17% | |
| 158 | 7% | 10% | |
| 159 | 2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ZRI Závecz Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–14 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 2.41%