LMP
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.3% (General Election of 6 April 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.8% | 3.9–8.4% | 3.6–8.9% | 3.3–9.2% | 2.9–10.0% |
| 28 March–3 April 2018 | Publicus Research | 7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 1–31 March 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 23–27 March 2018 | Medián hvg.hu |
7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 21–24 March 2018 | Iránytű Intézet Magyar Nemzet |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 10–23 March 2018 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 3–19 March 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 7–14 March 2018 | ZRI Závecz Research | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 9–14 March 2018 | Publicus Research | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 2–7 March 2018 | Medián hvg.hu |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 1–5 March 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 26–28 February 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Iránytű Intézet Magyar Nemzet |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 9–22 February 2018 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 3–21 February 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| 7–15 February 2018 | ZRI Závecz Research | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 9–14 February 2018 | Publicus Research | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 6–13 February 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| 1–31 January 2018 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 17–24 January 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| 11–23 January 2018 | TÁRKI | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 19–23 January 2018 | Medián hvg.hu |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| 1–20 January 2018 | ZRI Závecz Research | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 3–18 January 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 7.8% | 7.0–8.6% | 6.8–8.8% | 6.6–9.0% | 6.3–9.4% |
| 10–16 January 2018 | Publicus Research | 6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 5–9 January 2018 | Iránytű Intézet | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 27 December 2017–2 January 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 10–20 December 2017 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 1–18 December 2017 | Nézőpont Intézet | 9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.8% |
| 6–14 December 2017 | ZRI Závecz Research | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 8–13 December 2017 | Publicus Research | 7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 6–12 December 2017 | Iránytű Intézet | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 18–30 November 2017 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| 1–30 November 2017 | Medián hvg.hu |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 24–30 November 2017 | Iránytű Intézet | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 20–28 November 2017 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| 1–19 November 2017 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| 11–15 November 2017 | Publicus Research | 7.1% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| 6–14 November 2017 | ZRI Závecz Research | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for LMP.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 15% | 95% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 9% | 81% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 16% | 72% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 27% | 55% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 20% | 29% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 5 seats (General Election of 6 April 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 28 March–3 April 2018 | Publicus Research | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 1–31 March 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 23–27 March 2018 | Medián hvg.hu |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 21–24 March 2018 | Iránytű Intézet Magyar Nemzet |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 10–23 March 2018 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 3–19 March 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 7–14 March 2018 | ZRI Závecz Research | 6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 9–14 March 2018 | Publicus Research | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 2–7 March 2018 | Medián hvg.hu |
5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 1–5 March 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| 26–28 February 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 1–28 February 2018 | Iránytű Intézet Magyar Nemzet |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 9–22 February 2018 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 3–21 February 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| 7–15 February 2018 | ZRI Závecz Research | 6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 9–14 February 2018 | Publicus Research | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 6–13 February 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| 1–31 January 2018 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 17–24 January 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 11–23 January 2018 | TÁRKI | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 19–23 January 2018 | Medián hvg.hu |
5 | 5–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 1–20 January 2018 | ZRI Závecz Research | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 3–18 January 2018 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| 10–16 January 2018 | Publicus Research | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 5–9 January 2018 | Iránytű Intézet | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 27 December 2017–2 January 2018 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 10–20 December 2017 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 1–18 December 2017 | Nézőpont Intézet | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| 6–14 December 2017 | ZRI Závecz Research | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 8–13 December 2017 | Publicus Research | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 6–12 December 2017 | Iránytű Intézet | 6 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 18–30 November 2017 | Republikon Intézet 24.hu |
6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 1–30 November 2017 | Medián hvg.hu |
0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 24–30 November 2017 | Iránytű Intézet | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 20–28 November 2017 | Századvég Alapítvány | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 1–19 November 2017 | Nézőpont Intézet | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| 11–15 November 2017 | Publicus Research | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 6–14 November 2017 | ZRI Závecz Research | 6 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for LMP.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 76% | |
| 2 | 0% | 76% | |
| 3 | 0% | 76% | |
| 4 | 0% | 76% | |
| 5 | 9% | 76% | Last Result |
| 6 | 22% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 45% | |
| 8 | 15% | 20% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |