MSZP

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 25.6% (General Election of 6 April 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12.8% 7.9–18.4% 7.0–19.3% 6.5–20.0% 5.8–21.2%
28 March–3 April 2018 Publicus Research 18.9% 17.4–20.5% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
1–31 March 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
23–27 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.5–13.7% 10.3–14.0% 9.8–14.6%
21–24 March 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
10–23 March 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
3–19 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
7–14 March 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
9–14 March 2018 Publicus Research 17.9% 16.5–19.6% 16.0–20.0% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
2–7 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 11.9% 10.8–13.2% 10.5–13.6% 10.2–13.9% 9.7–14.5%
1–5 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
26–28 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
1–28 February 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
9–22 February 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
3–21 February 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
7–15 February 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.6–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.7–16.2%
9–14 February 2018 Publicus Research 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 14.9–21.2%
6–13 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
1–31 January 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
17–24 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
11–23 January 2018 TÁRKI 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.4%
19–23 January 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
1–20 January 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
3–18 January 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 8.8% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.1% 7.2–10.5%
10–16 January 2018 Publicus Research 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.6–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
5–9 January 2018 Iránytű Intézet 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
27 December 2017–2 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
10–20 December 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
1–18 December 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
6–14 December 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
8–13 December 2017 Publicus Research 14.9% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
6–12 December 2017 Iránytű Intézet 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
18–30 November 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
1–30 November 2017 Medián
hvg.hu		 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.4% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.3%
24–30 November 2017 Iránytű Intézet 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
20–28 November 2017 Századvég Alapítvány 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
1–19 November 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
11–15 November 2017 Publicus Research 14.3% 12.9–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.3%
6–14 November 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for MSZP.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0.2% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 3% 99.8%  
6.5–7.5% 6% 97%  
7.5–8.5% 3% 92%  
8.5–9.5% 2% 88%  
9.5–10.5% 5% 87%  
10.5–11.5% 12% 82%  
11.5–12.5% 15% 69%  
12.5–13.5% 12% 54% Median
13.5–14.5% 8% 42%  
14.5–15.5% 6% 34%  
15.5–16.5% 6% 28%  
16.5–17.5% 6% 22%  
17.5–18.5% 6% 15%  
18.5–19.5% 5% 9%  
19.5–20.5% 3% 4%  
20.5–21.5% 1.0% 1.3%  
21.5–22.5% 0.2% 0.3%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 0%  
23.5–24.5% 0% 0%  
24.5–25.5% 0% 0%  
25.5–26.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 29 seats (General Election of 6 April 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 13 8–19 7–21 6–21 6–22
28 March–3 April 2018 Publicus Research 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
1–31 March 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 11–18
23–27 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 12 11–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
21–24 March 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–16
10–23 March 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 18 16–21 16–21 15–22 14–23
3–19 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–13
7–14 March 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
9–14 March 2018 Publicus Research 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 14–22
2–7 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
1–5 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
26–28 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
1–28 February 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–13
9–22 February 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
3–21 February 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
7–15 February 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 13 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
9–14 February 2018 Publicus Research 19 16–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
6–13 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
1–31 January 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
17–24 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–16
11–23 January 2018 TÁRKI 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
19–23 January 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
1–20 January 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–16
3–18 January 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
10–16 January 2018 Publicus Research 17 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
5–9 January 2018 Iránytű Intézet 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
27 December 2017–2 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
10–20 December 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 11 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–14
1–18 December 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
6–14 December 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
8–13 December 2017 Publicus Research 15 14–17 13–18 13–19 12–20
6–12 December 2017 Iránytű Intézet 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
18–30 November 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
1–30 November 2017 Medián
hvg.hu		 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
24–30 November 2017 Iránytű Intézet 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
20–28 November 2017 Századvég Alapítvány 13 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–17
1–19 November 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
11–15 November 2017 Publicus Research 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
6–14 November 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 11 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–14

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for MSZP.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 3% 99.7%  
7 5% 97%  
8 3% 91%  
9 2% 88%  
10 7% 86%  
11 13% 79%  
12 15% 66%  
13 12% 51% Median
14 8% 39%  
15 5% 31%  
16 3% 26%  
17 3% 23%  
18 4% 20%  
19 5% 15%  
20 5% 10%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result