Jobbik

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 20.2% (General Election of 6 April 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 17.3% 13.2–23.8% 12.6–25.3% 12.1–26.1% 11.2–27.4%
28 March–3 April 2018 Publicus Research 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
1–31 March 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
23–27 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
21–24 March 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
10–23 March 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
3–19 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
7–14 March 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
9–14 March 2018 Publicus Research 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
2–7 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 15.9% 14.6–17.3% 14.3–17.8% 13.9–18.1% 13.4–18.8%
1–5 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.0–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.0–20.1%
26–28 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
1–28 February 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
9–22 February 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 19.8% 18.2–21.5% 17.8–22.0% 17.4–22.4% 16.7–23.2%
3–21 February 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 12.9% 12.0–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.5% 11.1–15.0%
7–15 February 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 17.2% 15.7–18.8% 15.3–19.3% 15.0–19.7% 14.3–20.5%
9–14 February 2018 Publicus Research 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.9% 13.7–18.3% 13.1–19.0%
6–13 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
1–31 January 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
17–24 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
11–23 January 2018 TÁRKI 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.2%
19–23 January 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 18.1% 16.7–19.6% 16.3–20.0% 16.0–20.4% 15.4–21.1%
1–20 January 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
3–18 January 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 12.6% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9% 11.2–14.1% 10.8–14.6%
10–16 January 2018 Publicus Research 15.7% 14.4–17.3% 14.0–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 13.0–18.9%
5–9 January 2018 Iránytű Intézet 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
27 December 2017–2 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
10–20 December 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
1–18 December 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 13.9% 13.0–15.0% 12.7–15.3% 12.5–15.5% 12.1–16.0%
6–14 December 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
8–13 December 2017 Publicus Research 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.9% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
6–12 December 2017 Iránytű Intézet 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
18–30 November 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
1–30 November 2017 Medián
hvg.hu		 14.9% 13.7–16.3% 13.3–16.7% 13.0–17.1% 12.4–17.7%
24–30 November 2017 Iránytű Intézet 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.4% 18.5–25.2%
20–28 November 2017 Századvég Alapítvány 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
1–19 November 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
11–15 November 2017 Publicus Research 17.3% 15.8–18.9% 15.4–19.4% 15.1–19.8% 14.4–20.5%
6–14 November 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Jobbik.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0.1% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0.9% 99.9%  
11.5–12.5% 4% 99.0%  
12.5–13.5% 8% 95%  
13.5–14.5% 11% 87%  
14.5–15.5% 11% 75%  
15.5–16.5% 9% 64%  
16.5–17.5% 7% 55% Median
17.5–18.5% 8% 48%  
18.5–19.5% 11% 40%  
19.5–20.5% 9% 29% Last Result
20.5–21.5% 5% 19%  
21.5–22.5% 2% 14%  
22.5–23.5% 2% 12%  
23.5–24.5% 3% 11%  
24.5–25.5% 4% 8%  
25.5–26.5% 3% 4%  
26.5–27.5% 1.1% 2%  
27.5–28.5% 0.3% 0.4%  
28.5–29.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
29.5–30.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 23 seats (General Election of 6 April 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 17 13–27 12–32 11–36 10–41
28 March–3 April 2018 Publicus Research 20 18–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
1–31 March 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 12 11–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
23–27 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
21–24 March 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 31 27–39 26–41 26–42 24–48
10–23 March 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 20 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–25
3–19 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 15 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
7–14 March 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 19 17–21 17–22 17–23 16–25
9–14 March 2018 Publicus Research 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
2–7 March 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
1–5 March 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
26–28 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–13
1–28 February 2018 Iránytű Intézet
Magyar Nemzet		 26 24–29 23–31 22–33 20–38
9–22 February 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–24
3–21 February 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 13 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–15
7–15 February 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
9–14 February 2018 Publicus Research 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
6–13 February 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–16
1–31 January 2018 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
17–24 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
11–23 January 2018 TÁRKI 15 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
19–23 January 2018 Medián
hvg.hu		 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
1–20 January 2018 ZRI Závecz Research 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
3–18 January 2018 Nézőpont Intézet 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
10–16 January 2018 Publicus Research 16 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
5–9 January 2018 Iránytű Intézet 23 21–26 20–27 20–28 19–29
27 December 2017–2 January 2018 Századvég Alapítvány 16 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
10–20 December 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
1–18 December 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 14 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–16
6–14 December 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
8–13 December 2017 Publicus Research 14 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–18
6–12 December 2017 Iránytű Intézet 21 19–23 19–24 19–26 18–27
18–30 November 2017 Republikon Intézet
24.hu		 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
1–30 November 2017 Medián
hvg.hu		 15 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
24–30 November 2017 Iránytű Intézet 22 20–26 20–26 19–28 19–28
20–28 November 2017 Századvég Alapítvány 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 12–18
1–19 November 2017 Nézőpont Intézet 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
11–15 November 2017 Publicus Research 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
6–14 November 2017 ZRI Závecz Research 18 16–20 16–20 15–20 15–21

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Jobbik.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 5% 97%  
13 7% 91%  
14 9% 85%  
15 12% 75%  
16 10% 64%  
17 5% 54% Median
18 7% 49%  
19 9% 42%  
20 9% 32%  
21 5% 23%  
22 3% 18%  
23 1.4% 16% Last Result
24 1.1% 14%  
25 0.7% 13%  
26 1.2% 13%  
27 2% 11%  
28 0.9% 9%  
29 1.1% 9%  
30 0.9% 7%  
31 0.8% 7%  
32 0.8% 6%  
33 0.2% 5%  
34 0.7% 5%  
35 0.9% 4%  
36 0.8% 3%  
37 0.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 2%  
39 0.2% 1.4%  
40 0.5% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.7%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%