Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 20–28 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 50.6% 48.6–52.6% 48.0–53.2% 47.5–53.7% 46.5–54.7%
Jobbik 20.2% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
MSZP 25.6% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
LMP 5.3% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
DK 25.6% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Együtt 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
MLP 25.6% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MKKP 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%
MM 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 156 153–159 153–160 152–160 151–162
Jobbik 23 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 12–18
MSZP 29 13 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–17
LMP 5 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
DK 4 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.2% 100%  
151 1.0% 99.7%  
152 3% 98.7%  
153 8% 95%  
154 13% 87%  
155 16% 74%  
156 16% 58% Median
157 19% 41%  
158 11% 23%  
159 7% 12%  
160 3% 5%  
161 1.2% 2%  
162 0.6% 0.9%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 5% 99.5%  
13 17% 94%  
14 32% 77% Median
15 28% 45%  
16 13% 18%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 4% 99.7%  
12 16% 96%  
13 34% 80% Median
14 28% 46%  
15 13% 18%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.6% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100% Last Result
6 14% 99.1%  
7 39% 85% Median
8 35% 46%  
9 10% 11%  
10 1.2% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 0% 48%  
4 5% 48% Last Result
5 36% 42%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 156 100% 153–159 153–160 152–160 151–162

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0.2% 100%  
151 1.0% 99.7%  
152 3% 98.7%  
153 8% 95%  
154 13% 87%  
155 16% 74%  
156 16% 58% Median
157 19% 41%  
158 11% 23%  
159 7% 12%  
160 3% 5%  
161 1.2% 2%  
162 0.6% 0.9%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations