Opinion Poll by Medián for hvg.hu, 1–30 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–KDNP |
44.9% |
59.6% |
57.8–61.4% |
57.2–61.9% |
56.8–62.3% |
55.9–63.2% |
Jobbik |
20.2% |
14.9% |
13.7–16.3% |
13.3–16.7% |
13.0–17.1% |
12.4–17.7% |
MSZP |
25.6% |
9.9% |
8.9–11.1% |
8.6–11.4% |
8.4–11.8% |
7.9–12.3% |
DK |
25.6% |
6.9% |
6.1–8.0% |
5.8–8.2% |
5.6–8.5% |
5.2–9.0% |
LMP |
5.3% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.2% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.6–6.8% |
Együtt |
25.6% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
MM |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.0% |
MLP |
25.6% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
MKKP |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–KDNP |
133 |
166 |
163–169 |
162–169 |
162–169 |
161–170 |
Jobbik |
23 |
15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
MSZP |
29 |
9 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
7–12 |
DK |
4 |
7 |
6–7 |
5–8 |
5–8 |
5–9 |
LMP |
5 |
0 |
0–5 |
0–6 |
0–6 |
0–6 |
Együtt |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MM |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MLP |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MKKP |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
100% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
161 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
162 |
4% |
98% |
|
163 |
10% |
93% |
|
164 |
12% |
83% |
|
165 |
11% |
71% |
|
166 |
13% |
60% |
Median |
167 |
22% |
46% |
|
168 |
12% |
24% |
|
169 |
10% |
12% |
|
170 |
2% |
2% |
|
171 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
172 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
14% |
98% |
|
14 |
26% |
84% |
|
15 |
36% |
58% |
Median |
16 |
17% |
22% |
|
17 |
4% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
8 |
10% |
99.2% |
|
9 |
40% |
89% |
Median |
10 |
37% |
49% |
|
11 |
11% |
13% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
0% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
5 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
38% |
93% |
|
7 |
46% |
55% |
Median |
8 |
9% |
10% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
46% |
|
2 |
0% |
46% |
|
3 |
0% |
46% |
|
4 |
0.7% |
46% |
|
5 |
39% |
45% |
Last Result |
6 |
5% |
6% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–KDNP |
133 |
166 |
100% |
163–169 |
162–169 |
162–169 |
161–170 |
Fidesz–KDNP
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
100% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
161 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
162 |
4% |
98% |
|
163 |
10% |
93% |
|
164 |
12% |
83% |
|
165 |
11% |
71% |
|
166 |
13% |
60% |
Median |
167 |
22% |
46% |
|
168 |
12% |
24% |
|
169 |
10% |
12% |
|
170 |
2% |
2% |
|
171 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
172 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Medián
- Commissioner(s): hvg.hu
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.34%