Opinion Poll by Republikon Intézet for 24.hu, 18–30 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 56.3% 54.3–58.3% 53.7–58.9% 53.2–59.4% 52.2–60.3%
Jobbik 20.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
MSZP 25.6% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
LMP 5.3% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
DK 25.6% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
MM 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Együtt 25.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
MLP 25.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
MKKP 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 164 162–167 161–169 161–169 160–172
Jobbik 23 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
MSZP 29 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
LMP 5 6 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
DK 4 6 5–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0.3% 100%  
160 1.2% 99.7%  
161 4% 98%  
162 12% 94%  
163 21% 82%  
164 21% 61% Median
165 13% 40%  
166 10% 26%  
167 7% 17%  
168 4% 10%  
169 3% 6%  
170 1.4% 2%  
171 0.6% 1.1%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.2% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.1% 100%  
11 9% 98.9%  
12 20% 90%  
13 39% 70% Median
14 22% 31%  
15 8% 9%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 7% 99.3%  
10 23% 92%  
11 38% 69% Median
12 22% 31%  
13 7% 9%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 30% 89% Last Result
6 42% 59% Median
7 15% 17%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91% Last Result
5 28% 91%  
6 45% 62% Median
7 15% 17%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 164 100% 162–167 161–169 161–169 160–172

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0.3% 100%  
160 1.2% 99.7%  
161 4% 98%  
162 12% 94%  
163 21% 82%  
164 21% 61% Median
165 13% 40%  
166 10% 26%  
167 7% 17%  
168 4% 10%  
169 3% 6%  
170 1.4% 2%  
171 0.6% 1.1%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.2% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations