Opinion Poll by Nézőpont Intézet, 1–18 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 50.9% | 49.4–52.3% | 49.0–52.7% | 48.7–53.0% | 48.0–53.7% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 13.9% | 13.0–15.0% | 12.7–15.3% | 12.5–15.5% | 12.1–16.0% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.8% |
| DK | 25.6% | 9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.8% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% |
| MM | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Párbeszéd | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 159 | 157–160 | 157–161 | 157–161 | 156–162 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| LMP | 5 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| DK | 4 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| MSZP | 29 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 156 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 9% | 98% | |
| 158 | 24% | 88% | |
| 159 | 40% | 64% | Median |
| 160 | 16% | 24% | |
| 161 | 7% | 8% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 16% | 98% | |
| 14 | 54% | 82% | Median |
| 15 | 24% | 28% | |
| 16 | 5% | 5% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 8 | 23% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 56% | 77% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 21% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 13% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 67% | 87% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 19% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 18% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 67% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Párbeszéd
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 159 | 100% | 157–160 | 157–161 | 157–161 | 156–162 |
| DK – MSZP – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd | 38 | 17 | 0% | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 156 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 9% | 98% | |
| 158 | 24% | 88% | |
| 159 | 40% | 64% | Median |
| 160 | 16% | 24% | |
| 161 | 7% | 8% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
DK – MSZP – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 18% | 96% | |
| 17 | 53% | 78% | Median |
| 18 | 22% | 25% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Nézőpont Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–18 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.41%