Opinion Poll by Republikon Intézet for 24.hu, 10–20 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–KDNP |
44.9% |
57.3% |
55.3–59.3% |
54.7–59.9% |
54.2–60.3% |
53.2–61.3% |
Jobbik |
20.2% |
16.1% |
14.7–17.7% |
14.3–18.1% |
13.9–18.5% |
13.3–19.3% |
MSZP |
25.6% |
11.1% |
9.9–12.5% |
9.6–12.9% |
9.3–13.2% |
8.7–13.9% |
LMP |
5.3% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.1% |
DK |
25.6% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.1% |
Együtt |
25.6% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
MM |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
MLP |
25.6% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
MKKP |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–KDNP |
133 |
166 |
162–170 |
161–171 |
161–171 |
160–172 |
Jobbik |
23 |
16 |
15–18 |
14–19 |
14–19 |
13–20 |
MSZP |
29 |
11 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
9–14 |
LMP |
5 |
5 |
0–6 |
0–6 |
0–6 |
0–7 |
DK |
4 |
0 |
0–6 |
0–6 |
0–6 |
0–7 |
Együtt |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MM |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MLP |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MKKP |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
159 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
161 |
3% |
98% |
|
162 |
8% |
95% |
|
163 |
8% |
87% |
|
164 |
9% |
79% |
|
165 |
16% |
70% |
|
166 |
13% |
54% |
Median |
167 |
14% |
41% |
|
168 |
10% |
27% |
|
169 |
6% |
17% |
|
170 |
6% |
11% |
|
171 |
4% |
5% |
|
172 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
173 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
174 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
15 |
18% |
94% |
|
16 |
28% |
77% |
Median |
17 |
23% |
49% |
|
18 |
17% |
26% |
|
19 |
7% |
9% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
21% |
96% |
|
11 |
32% |
75% |
Median |
12 |
29% |
44% |
|
13 |
12% |
15% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
48% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
52% |
|
2 |
0% |
52% |
|
3 |
0% |
52% |
|
4 |
0% |
52% |
|
5 |
37% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
14% |
15% |
|
7 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
53% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
47% |
|
2 |
0% |
47% |
|
3 |
0% |
47% |
|
4 |
0% |
47% |
Last Result |
5 |
32% |
47% |
|
6 |
13% |
14% |
|
7 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fidesz–KDNP |
133 |
166 |
100% |
162–170 |
161–171 |
161–171 |
160–172 |
Fidesz–KDNP
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
159 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
161 |
3% |
98% |
|
162 |
8% |
95% |
|
163 |
8% |
87% |
|
164 |
9% |
79% |
|
165 |
16% |
70% |
|
166 |
13% |
54% |
Median |
167 |
14% |
41% |
|
168 |
10% |
27% |
|
169 |
6% |
17% |
|
170 |
6% |
11% |
|
171 |
4% |
5% |
|
172 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
173 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
174 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Republikon Intézet
- Commissioner(s): 24.hu
- Fieldwork period: 10–20 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.89%