Opinion Poll by Századvég Alapítvány, 27 December 2017–2 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 51.5% | 49.5–53.5% | 48.9–54.1% | 48.4–54.6% | 47.4–55.6% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| DK | 25.6% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Párbeszéd | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
| MM | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 158 | 155–160 | 154–161 | 154–162 | 152–164 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| MSZP | 29 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| LMP | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| DK | 4 | 5 | 5–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 4% | 98% | |
| 155 | 8% | 94% | |
| 156 | 16% | 86% | |
| 157 | 20% | 70% | |
| 158 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 159 | 15% | 29% | |
| 160 | 7% | 14% | |
| 161 | 4% | 7% | |
| 162 | 2% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 18% | 96% | |
| 15 | 24% | 78% | |
| 16 | 34% | 54% | Median |
| 17 | 14% | 20% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 29% | 90% | |
| 14 | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 15 | 19% | 25% | |
| 16 | 5% | 5% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 36% | 90% | |
| 7 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 14% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 92% | Last Result |
| 5 | 63% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 29% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Párbeszéd
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 158 | 100% | 155–160 | 154–161 | 154–162 | 152–164 |
| MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd | 38 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 15–21 | 13–22 | 12–23 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 4% | 98% | |
| 155 | 8% | 94% | |
| 156 | 16% | 86% | |
| 157 | 20% | 70% | |
| 158 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 159 | 15% | 29% | |
| 160 | 7% | 14% | |
| 161 | 4% | 7% | |
| 162 | 2% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 2% | 97% | |
| 15 | 2% | 95% | |
| 16 | 2% | 93% | |
| 17 | 7% | 92% | |
| 18 | 23% | 85% | |
| 19 | 28% | 62% | Median |
| 20 | 21% | 34% | |
| 21 | 10% | 13% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Századvég Alapítvány
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27 December 2017–2 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.76%