Opinion Poll by Publicus Research, 10–16 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 44.9% | 48.3% | 46.3–50.3% | 45.7–50.9% | 45.2–51.4% | 44.3–52.3% |
| MSZP | 25.6% | 16.7% | 15.3–18.3% | 14.9–18.7% | 14.6–19.1% | 13.9–19.9% |
| Jobbik | 20.2% | 15.7% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 13.0–18.9% |
| LMP | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| DK | 25.6% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Együtt | 25.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| MM | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Párbeszéd | 25.6% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| MLP | 25.6% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 156 | 153–159 | 152–160 | 152–160 | 150–162 |
| MSZP | 29 | 17 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Jobbik | 23 | 16 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| LMP | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| DK | 4 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Együtt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MKKP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–KDNP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 152 | 3% | 98% | |
| 153 | 6% | 94% | |
| 154 | 11% | 88% | |
| 155 | 11% | 77% | |
| 156 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 157 | 12% | 48% | |
| 158 | 13% | 36% | |
| 159 | 15% | 23% | |
| 160 | 6% | 8% | |
| 161 | 2% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 7% | 98% | |
| 16 | 25% | 91% | |
| 17 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 41% | |
| 19 | 11% | 27% | |
| 20 | 12% | 16% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jobbik
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 20% | 92% | |
| 16 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 17 | 31% | 46% | |
| 18 | 11% | 16% | |
| 19 | 4% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LMP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 31% | 94% | |
| 7 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 16% | 20% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
DK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 40% | |
| 3 | 0% | 40% | |
| 4 | 0% | 40% | Last Result |
| 5 | 30% | 40% | |
| 6 | 9% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Együtt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MKKP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MM
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Párbeszéd
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MLP
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–KDNP | 133 | 156 | 100% | 153–159 | 152–160 | 152–160 | 150–162 |
| MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd | 38 | 20 | 0% | 16–23 | 16–24 | 16–25 | 15–26 |
Fidesz–KDNP
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 152 | 3% | 98% | |
| 153 | 6% | 94% | |
| 154 | 11% | 88% | |
| 155 | 11% | 77% | |
| 156 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 157 | 12% | 48% | |
| 158 | 13% | 36% | |
| 159 | 15% | 23% | |
| 160 | 6% | 8% | |
| 161 | 2% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 14% | 98% | |
| 17 | 15% | 84% | Median |
| 18 | 11% | 69% | |
| 19 | 6% | 58% | |
| 20 | 14% | 51% | |
| 21 | 12% | 37% | |
| 22 | 9% | 25% | |
| 23 | 5% | 15% | |
| 24 | 6% | 10% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Publicus Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1023
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 1.89%