Opinion Poll by Nézőpont Intézet, 3–18 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 44.9% 52.5% 51.0–53.9% 50.6–54.3% 50.3–54.6% 49.6–55.3%
Jobbik 20.2% 12.6% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9% 11.2–14.1% 10.8–14.6%
MSZP 25.6% 8.8% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.1% 7.2–10.5%
LMP 5.3% 7.8% 7.0–8.6% 6.8–8.8% 6.6–9.0% 6.3–9.4%
DK 25.6% 7.8% 7.0–8.6% 6.8–8.8% 6.6–9.0% 6.3–9.4%
MM 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–4.0%
MKKP 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Együtt 25.6% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Párbeszéd 25.6% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
MLP 25.6% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 162 160–163 160–163 159–164 159–164
Jobbik 23 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
MSZP 29 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
LMP 5 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
DK 4 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
MM 0 0 0 0 0 0
MKKP 0 0 0 0 0 0
Együtt 3 0 0 0 0 0
Párbeszéd 1 0 0 0 0 0
MLP 1 0 0 0 0 0

Fidesz–KDNP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–KDNP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.4% 100%  
159 3% 99.6%  
160 15% 96%  
161 29% 82%  
162 31% 52% Median
163 16% 21%  
164 4% 5%  
165 0.4% 0.4%  
166 0% 0%  

Jobbik

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jobbik page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 27% 98%  
13 45% 71% Median
14 22% 26%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

MSZP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MSZP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 24% 98%  
9 56% 74% Median
10 17% 18%  
11 1.2% 1.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

LMP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LMP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 1.5% 100%  
7 32% 98.5%  
8 57% 66% Median
9 9% 9%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

DK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 1.3% 100%  
7 31% 98.7%  
8 56% 68% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

MM

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MM page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

MKKP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MKKP page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Együtt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Együtt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Párbeszéd

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

MLP

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MLP page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–KDNP 133 162 100% 160–163 160–163 159–164 159–164
MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd 38 17 0% 16–18 15–18 15–19 14–19

Fidesz–KDNP

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.4% 100%  
159 3% 99.6%  
160 15% 96%  
161 29% 82%  
162 31% 52% Median
163 16% 21%  
164 4% 5%  
165 0.4% 0.4%  
166 0% 0%  

MSZP – DK – Együtt – MLP – Párbeszéd

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 7% 99.4%  
16 35% 92%  
17 38% 58% Median
18 17% 19%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations